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Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s win, corruption and kleptocracy in the Philippines
With Marcos Jr. about to win the presidency, how will his leadership change the Philippines? Sri Lanka's prime minister resigned. Will its president be next? Is Sinn Féin's victory a sign that a united Ireland is closer? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Marcos Jr. about to win the presidency, how will his leadership change the Philippines?
Well, it was a big win, almost 30 points over his opponent, and the first time we've seen an absolute majority in Philippines history for the presidency. Not huge changes expected in governance. Let's keep in mind that the vice president is actually the daughter of President Duterte, who's just leaving power. The president and the vice presidents here are actually... Those elections are held separately, and so you can have different parties that actually win, and frequently do, which is sort of an unusual twist to the Philippines. Pro-foreign direct investment, generally pro-markets, a little bit more of a US and Western tilt as opposed to Duterte, whose military really was skeptical of China, but he personally was more engaged with Beijing. The big question is what's the cabinet going to look like, how independent, how technocratic, or is there going to be a lot of corruption, a lot of kleptocracy? Keeping in mind that Bongbong, the new president, is the son of Ferdinand and Imelda Marcos, who were drummed out for an extraordinary abuse of power in the Philippines before. So what everyone's going to be watching.
Sri Lanka's prime minister resigned. Will its president be next?
Well, I mean, since we're talking about kleptocracy, let's keep in mind that the president is the younger brother of the now resigned prime minister, and they've let go a bunch of... You've got the ministers of finance that have been sort of a revolving door recently. This is the worst economic crisis of Sri Lanka's history. And it's led to a lot of demonstrations, mass protests, a lot of violence, and that's why the PM is gone. But there's also a state of emergency. The military, the police are out in force, the president clearly trying his damnedest to avoid having to step down. And the real question is going to be how explosive the situation on the ground is. Could this become sort of a mass-driven coup, and might you see some splits in the military as a consequence of that?
Is Sinn Féin's victory a sign that a united Ireland is closer?
Well, yeah, of course it's closer in the sense that you now have a party, a Catholic party, that's won for the first time, more history, in Northern Ireland that is interested in a unionist position on Ireland. And Brexit of course did set this off, but a strong majority of citizens in Northern Ireland do not support even a referendum on unification, and certainly don't support unification, though Sinn Féin has said that they'd like to have such a vote within five years. More importantly is that this is going to be used, the Sinn Féin victory, by Boris Johnson and his Tory government to push for changing the rules agreed with the European Union in the breakup, on the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, Northern Ireland and Europe. And that has the potential to really disrupt, further disrupt, UK-EU trade over the course of the next 12 months. So in the near-term, that's the problem. In the long-term, no question there's more pressure on political devolution and disillusion in the not so United Kingdom.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers a speech during a campaign rally.
Dynasty + disinformation = Philippine democracy
The Philippine presidential election is a week away, and two uncomfortable characteristics of modern democracy in the country — dynasty and disinformation — are expected to shape the result.
Leading the polls by a wide margin is Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the late dictator. The elder Marcos ruled the Philippines for 21 years, including eight years under martial law, before he was overthrown in 1986 by the so-called “People Power” uprising against his kleptocracy.
Two scions team up. Marcos has partnered with VP hopeful Sara Duterte, daughter of the outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte, who was ahead of her running mate in the surveys before she opted to run for the second-highest office instead. Although she has maintained a distance from her father, the Marcos-Duterte combination is a potent one that spans the country’s geography and demography, allying the northern districts loyal to Marcos with the deep south, where the Dutertes are most powerful.
Both have enjoyed the privilege of power under their respective fathers’ rules. Marcos entered politics as a vice governor in 1981, when his dad was still in power, and until recently Duterte was mayor of her hometown of Davao City, her father’s old job.
All in the family. Dynasties, a longtime staple of Philippine politics, have tightened their grip on power in recent years. Research by online news site Rappler shows that so-called "fat" dynasties – where several members simultaneously hold elected posts — now occupy 29% of local offices, 80% of governorships, and two-thirds of seats in Congress.
To prove the point, Duterte’s two sons are eyeing congressional and mayoral seats in the upcoming elections, and Marcos’ son is also being prepped as an heir-apparent.
Laws that are supposed to curb the influence of political families don't work — hardly surprising given that they've been passed by politicians who themselves belong to dynasties. For instance, many posts are limited to three consecutive terms, but the trick is to get a spouse or child to keep the seat warm for one term, and then run again.
Still, being a Marcos also comes with serious baggage because it’s perhaps the most polarizing name in Philippine politics.
Marcos’ ascent is a divisive subject and opens up the wounds of the past. However, where some see the entrenched power of dynastic politics and patronage, propelled by a slick PR campaign that has done a remarkable job of whitewashing the family’s sins, a new generation sees vindication.
Indeed, Marcos has found his edge in demographics. The majority of Filipinos who’ll vote for president on May 9 are under 30 years old. They didn’t grow up under his father’s martial law regime, under which 70,000 people were detained, 34,000 tortured, and over 3,000 killed.
The younger Marcos’ carefully crafted rise to presidential frontrunner status is the culmination of a years-long, sophisticated social media disinformation strategy pushing his father’s rule as a golden era. He’s also been careful to avoid debates so he doesn’t have to talk about what his family did, and he lets big-name local politicians campaign on his behalf.
Meanwhile, his main rival, Vice President Leni Robredo, has been the target of a constant barrage of online disinformation, much of it about her and her family’s sex lives, by pro-Marcos supporters.
When the likes of Facebook, Twitter and Wikipedia have taken action against his trolls, bots, spam and manipulation, and even the powerful Catholic Church rejected the online “historical revisionism,” the Marcos campaign responded by pivoting to newer platforms like TikTok to appeal to the Philippines’ massive vote bank of Gen-Z’ers, converting teenagers and influencers who are far removed from the trauma of martial law to sympathize with the Marcos dynasty.
Can anyone beat the dynamic dynastic duo? Of the other candidates, the only one with a shot — albeit a long one — at being a spoiler for the Marcos-Duterte ticket is Robredo, also the lone female presidential candidate.
Robredo, who beat Marcos for VP in 2016, has carved out a reputation as a fierce critic of Duterte's strong-arm tactics. Although she trails Marcos by double digits, her campaign is experiencing a late surge in numbers attending her vibrant, proudly feminist rallies in a political culture that’s as misogynistic as it is dynastic.A woman holds a placard during a protest following the vice presidential bid of Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, daughter of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, for the 2022 national elections, at the Commission of Human Rights, in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines, November 14, 2021.
Philippine presidential election: “All in the family”
Philippine elections have always been, Filipinos will candidly admit, a bit of a circus. Come campaign season, politicians fan out across the country, showing off their best tricks to lure voters into giving them their support.
So, what does it take to get elected president? Not coherent programs to cut widespread poverty and rampant corruption. Everyone knows those promises will surely not be kept.
The holy grail of Philippine politics is name recognition. Yet it's not enough to simply be famous. The golden ticket is to belong to a well-known political family.
Even better, join forces with another powerful dynasty — which is exactly what the two biggest names in Philippine politics today have done to win the May 2022 presidential election.
One half of that duo is Ferdinand Marcos Jr. If that name rings a bell it's because he's the son of the late dictator who ruled the Philippines with an iron fist for 21 years. The elder Marcos and his famously shoe-obsessed wife Imelda are believed to have plundered as much as $10 billion from the state's coffers before they were chased out of office — and the country — by the "People Power" revolution of 1986.
Aries Arugay, professor of political science at the University of the Philippines-Diliman, says that Marcos' presidential bid is the culmination of a decades-long quest by his family to regain power after narrowly losing the VP race in 2016.
The other half is none other than VP pick Sara Duterte. If that name rings a bell it's because she's the daughter of Rodrigo, the current president with aspiring dictator vibes of his own.
The Duterte scion has followed her dad's 2016 election playbook to a tee: tease a run for president, turn it down to remain mayor of your hometown, and finally change your mind at the eleventh hour to file your candidacy "reluctantly" because you just can't disappoint your fans. And don't forget to throw in some family drama too.
Right now, the Marcos-Duterte tandem looks like it could easily run away with the election. With the president's daughter by his side, Marcos is now the clear frontrunner, polling at an impressive 47 percent. The couple also faces weak opposition at the moment in the boxer-turned-senator Manny Pacquiao and Leni Robredo, the competent yet low-key vice president.
Part of the twist here is that the Philippine electoral system for president is warped: it's a one-round contest in which whoever gets a plurality wins. Presidents have been elected with barely a quarter of the vote. Candidates often only need to lock in one or two vote-rich regions outside Manila, as Marcos and Duterte both can, to secure victory.
What's more, the Marcos-Duterte campaign is dominating social media — a silver bullet in a nation rife with online disinformation and fake news, where nearly half the population gets their news from Facebook. And guess who Facebook helped win the last time?
Rodrigo Duterte himself, who's become an unexpected thorn in the side of Marcos and the younger Duterte. Until the last minute the term-limited Duterte senior flirted with the idea of running for VP, even against Sara, but ultimately decided to seek a Senate seat right on the buzzer.
Perhaps upset that his daughter ignored his advice to go for the top job, Duterte is now endorsing another candidate instead of his ally Marcos, with his daughter as vice president (the Philippines elects presidents and VPs separately).
Arugay says not having a single ticket is a problem for both Duterte and Marcos. For one thing, it'll split the pro-Duterte vote, not to mention confusing voters. For another, Marcos will have to walk on eggshells with the notoriously thin-skinned president because the Supreme Court, which may hear a disqualification case against Marcos over tax evasion, is packed with Duterte appointees.
What is this all so bad for Philippine democracy? For Arugay, this election is a "new low." It's turned voting for president into an "all in the family" affair because dynasties rather than parties have determined the candidates.
When political parties are created overnight and can implode just as quickly, elections are mere popularity contests. Without sound debate about ideas and policy, the country's many problems will never get fixed.
Unfortunately, as long as those who have the power to reform the Philippine political system are the same politicians who cause the problems in the first place, any hope of progress remains a very long shot.
Rodrigo Duterte, President of the Philippines, and his daughter Sara arrive at the Imperial Palace to attend the enthronement ceremony in Tokyo on October 22, 2019.
What We're Watching: Duterte family drama in the Philippines
Duterte telenovela. The daughter of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will run next year for vice president... while her dad will seek a Senate seat. The term-limited senior Duterte had threatened to run against her, but changed his mind again at the eleventh hour. (The president — who faces legal action over his bloody drug war unless his successor declines to prosecute him — was initially going to run alongside his daughter, but then dropped out because he said most Filipinos were against it.) Meanwhile, although the country elects presidents and VPs separately, Sara Duterte will be on a de-facto ticket with Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the former dictator and allied with the Dutertes. Expect more drama during the campaign from the Dutertes and other big names in the Philippines, where politics is deeply personal and parties serve as mere vehicles for individuals with high name recognition. With boxer-turned-senator Manny Pacquiao also running in a very crowded field, buckle up for an epic battle to replace Duterte in May 2022.