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Nine candidates for the Japan Liberal Democratic Party presidential election attend a speech meeting in Matsue City, Shimane Prefecture, Japan, on September 20, 2024.
Japan’s heavy hitters slug it out in leadership election
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party will elect a new president to replace Fumio Kishida on Friday, as the unpopular prime minister prepares to bow out and give his successor a fresh slate ahead of a looming general election. Three names have emerged as the leading candidates: former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Economic Minister Sanae Takaichi, and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, the likely favorite.
What are the candidates promising? Policy-wise, the differences are marginal. Takaichi is somewhat more hawkish on China and more supportive of late PM Shinzo Abe’s economic policies than her peers. All the candidates are strong supporters of the US alliance, though Ishiba went a little further than the others by calling for an Asian version of NATO. The winner will also influence when general elections are held, with Koizumi promising to hold the vote almost immediately while Ishiba and Takaichi display more caution. But a vote must be held before Oct. 31, 2025.
It’s worth noting that, if elected, Takaichi would be the first woman to rule Japan in its modern history, and possibly the first to rule in her own name since the 8th century.
How will the vote work? The first round will be open to both elected LDP legislators and rank-and-file members, with their votes weighted equally. If no candidate secures a majority — which is likely — there will be an immediate runoff between the top two candidates, where legislators have more weight. That dynamic works against Ishiba, who is not popular among party elites. Koizumi’s more moderate image might benefit him in a runoff against the conservative Takaichi, meaning he’s a good bet if he makes it through the first round no matter who he faces in the runoff.
Whoever comes out on top, the Biden administration is hoping they’ll take a leaf from their predecessor, says Eurasia Group’s David Boling. “The White House has loved Kishida, who has made the US-Japan alliance as strong as ever, and will hope the next prime minister follows in Kishida’s footsteps,” he says.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
Viewpoint: How Abe still casts a shadow over Kishida in Japan
Former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe was tragically gunned down one year ago. Yet he still casts a long shadow on Japanese politics and the agenda of current PM Fumio Kishida.
Last year, Kishida’s public approval ratings nosedived mainly because of controversies related to Abe, like the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s ties to the Unification Church (or “Moonies”). Those ties go back decades to former PM Nobusuke Kishi, Abe’s grandfather. Since then, Kishida has regained his political footing. But when it comes to Japan’s national security, foreign affairs, and economic policies, Kishida still walks in Abe’s shadow. Or does he?
To get an idea of how this is all playing out, especially as Kishida mulls calling snap elections later this year, we sat down for a chat with David Boling, Eurasia Group’s lead Japan analyst.
What is Abe's main legacy on Japanese politics a year after his death?
He continues to exert outsized influence over day-to-day politics and policymaking.
At the time of his death, Abe was head of the largest faction, which now has 100 members, within the conservative LDP. That’s nearly double the size of the next largest faction. The caucus still bears his name, the “Abe faction,” and he remains the glue that holds them together. Even though a year has passed, they still can’t agree on a new standard bearer.
On policy, his vision outlives him too. Abe was a very controversial and provocative politician. He was edgy and relished a good fight. This made him unpopular and is the reason why most Japanese people opposed a state funeral for him — to the dismay of many foreign observers. But his policy vision transcends all that rancor. It might even be called mainstream now.
So as William Faulkner said, “The past is never dead. It’s not even past.”
What would Abe think of Kishida’s performance so far?
Abe would be happy to see that Kishida has supported increased defense spending, which is set to reach 2% of GDP by 2027. But he would question Kishida’s leadership abilities and not consider him conservative enough.
It’s worth remembering that before Abe was gunned down, he was positioning himself to make yet another run for prime minister. So Kishida certainly saw Abe as a political rival – you might even say they were “frenemies.” They were both LDP members and somewhat dependent on each other – Kishida had served nearly five years as Abe’s foreign minister. But they were suspicious of one another.
How has Kishida shaken off the controversy over the Moonies in the wake of Abe’s shooting?
Kishida took a huge beating in the polls last fall over the Unification Church scandal, even though Kishida himself had no personal connection to the church. It was Abe, members of his faction, and other LDP members who were chummy with the Moonies.
The controversy over LDP ties with the Moonies burned very hot but then fizzled out. In December, Kishida helped push through legislation to crack down on fundraising abuses by religious organizations. Since then, though, the issue has completely dropped out of opinion polling.
How has Kishida followed Abe’s playbook, and where has he distanced himself from his old boss?
Although he has sought to distance himself from “Abenomics” with his “new form of capitalism,” Kishida has stuck to Abe’s economic blueprint of big fiscal spending and ultra-loose monetary policy. That’s been a surprise.
On defense, Abe was a hawk. Kishida is a dove who has been mugged by the reality of China, North Korea, and Russia. So Kishida has become a supporter of spending more money on defense. He wants to raise taxes to pay for some of that increase, whereas Abe was fine just to pay for it with new debt.
Finally, the Japanese public sees amending the constitution to clarify the status of the self-defense forces as a low priority – as does Kishida – while it was a top priority for Abe.
How popular is Kishida today, and how much of a change/mandate is that for him moving forward?
Kishida’s popularity has been like a roller coaster. It was up at the beginning of his tenure. But it went down in the second half of last year to its lowest point. Then up from the beginning of this year through the G7 summit in Hiroshima. Now it’s heading down again.
Kishida is not as threatening as Abe, but his popular support does not run as deep either. The Japanese public has a “meh” attitude towards him. There’s a good chance he’ll dissolve the lower house and hold snap elections later this year, and those results will determine how much Kishida can do in the coming months.
Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks at a news conference during the 77th UN General Assembly in New York.
Will Japan's PM avoid the "danger zone" after Abe funeral?
Japan held a controversial state funeral Tuesday for former PM Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated in early July. Now that the ceremony is over, one attendee who'll feel some relief is Fumio Kishida, the embattled current prime minister.
How did we get here? Since seeing his popularity soar to a record high after responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with unusual toughness, three months ago Kishida’s approval rating started to slip. It was mainly over the economy — with many Japanese people starting to panic over inflation after 20 years of deflation.
Abe’s assassination swept the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to a decisive victory in the upper house election three days later, but soon after that, the blowback from his tragic death made the Japanese public sour on the PM. First, Abe's assassin blamed his family's financial ruin on the Unification Church, a cult-like religious movement born in South Korea whose members are known as Moonies (after founder Sun Myung Moon).
The revelation sparked a public outcry against the Moonies, which have long been cozy with the LDP — including Abe himself. Kishida, who has no ties to the church, responded to the backlash by firing his cabinet ministers with Moonie baggage, but the scandal just won't go away.
At the same time, Kishida waded into an unforeseen culture war by authorizing a state funeral for Abe. That struck a sour note for the majority of Japanese voters who oppose the taxpayer-funded $11.5 million ceremony because it’s an honor traditionally reserved for members of the Imperial Family.
Until Abe, only Shigeru Yoshida, Japan’s first postwar PM, had received a funeral with all the state bells and whistles. While Abe fans might argue that he deserves the same treatment as the country’s longest-serving PM, David Boling, Eurasia Group’s lead Japan analyst, says the backlash shows that Abe’s hawkish politics were always divisive. (To get an idea of how much, days ago an elderly man set himself on fire in central Tokyo to protest the funeral.)
Also, the economy has gone from bad to worse. Last week, the Bank of Japan intervened for the first time since 1998 to prop up the yen after the currency hit a new low, having lost one-fifth of its value against the dollar in 2022. Japan is not the only country grappling with high inflation and a weak currency, but it has stubbornly refused to raise interest rates in response.
Annual core inflation reached 2.8% in August, which may not sound like much yet is historically very high for Japan. Boling says that rising prices — which the government can do little about — and the central bank dragging its feet on rate hikes make Kishida look ineffective.
Is the PM in real danger of losing his job? Not yet, but for Boling he's close to the "danger zone" with an average approval rating of about 37%. If Kishida’s numbers go down even more a month from now, "that becomes a bigger concern, and he really hits the panic button."
Still, Kishida has two things going for him.
First, the PM doesn't have an election on the horizon. That’s what doomed his predecessor, Yoshihide Suga, who stepped down with a similar approval rating a year ago. Kishida then won the LDP leadership race and captained the party to a comfortable majority in the October 2021 lower house election.
Second, Boling says that the opposition remains disorganized and fragmented. Meanwhile, the LDP's so-called Abe faction, the main ruling party bloc that might seek to challenge Kishida in the near term, is leaderless.
Kishida also has a personal reason to stay. Next year, Japan takes over the presidency of the G7, which will hold its 2023 summit in Hiroshima, the PM’s electoral district. Kishida wants to use the symbolism of the location to make a big splash about nuclear weapons non-proliferation.
Finally, Boling says Kishida’s low numbers don’t necessarily reflect his personal popularity among the Japanese public. He is perceived as someone who listens more and is less in-your-face than Abe or Suga — the flip side is that he's also seen as rather bland and indecisive on policy.
The upshot: Since 2000, only two of Japan’s prime ministers have served more than 15 months in office: the larger-than-life Abe and the flamboyant Junichiro Koizumi, famous for serenading then-US President George W. Bush with Elvis songs. The more low-key Kishida hardly has their charisma, yet could follow in their footsteps if he weathers the current storm.
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Why Japan’s political Moonies have staying power
When Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reshuffled his cabinet for the first time since former PM Shinzo Abe’s assassination earlier this summer, it was a response to his falling approval rating. His government was struggling to tame rising COVID infections and acute inflation.
But it was also seen as damage control for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s ties to the controversial Unification Church. Kishida fired cabinet ministers linked to the cult-like religious movement born in South Korea whose members are known as Moonies (after founder Sun Myung Moon).
Although the PM also promised only to appoint future cabinet members who agree to review their relationship with the church, it wasn’t enough. After his popularity plummeted 16 percentage points in just a month to 36%, its lowest level since he took power, Kishida this week demanded all cabinet members review their past ties to the religious group.
The Moonies hit the spotlight after Abe’s alleged assassin blamed the church for his family’s financial ruin. The revelation that over 100 national politicians — most of them LDP lawmakers — have ties to the church also came as an ugly surprise to the public, especially as Japan’s constitution calls for the separation of church and state.
Kishida dismissed then-Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi, Abe’s younger brother, who wasn’t a member of the church but received help from it in past elections. The same was true of Koichi Hagiuda, who was replaced as economy minister.
Abe’s assassination triggered a public outcry against the church's political power. According to a recent poll, almost 90% of the Japanese people want the ruling party to better explain its ties to the Moonies. Strikingly, less than 7% accept Kishida’s explanation that there’s no organizational relationship between the LDP and the church.
Since the reshuffle,at least 20 of 54 lawmakers appointed as deputies to cabinet members have confirmed links to the church.
But Kishida is not severing ties completely. For instance, the ousted Kishi will likely become a special adviser to the PM on national security issues, effectively serving as a direct line to Kishida, and Haguida has been asked to head the LDP's policy research council, an influential party position.
The cabinet reshuffle was a classic move in Japanese politics to change a negative news cycle, says Eurasia Group’s lead Japan expert David Boling. “But this time the Japanese people said: 'not so fast.'”
What’s more, the PM reportedly knew that the replacements for many of the ousted ministers carried some of the same baggage, which for Boling is hardly a surprise. In other words, the Moonies are not really out of power — at least not yet.
"Kishida is between a rock and hard place," Boling says. The PM has to make the impossible choice between appointing experienced people despite their past ties to the church, or inexperienced ones who are free from the Moonie taint.
Still, the Japanese public clearly “wants a clean break."
What’s the big deal about the Moonies and their relationship with Japan's ruling party? The ties between the LDP and Moon’s church go back to the 1960s, when the South Korean pastor expanded to Japan.
In the 1970s, Moon and Abe’s grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi (a former PM and LDP founding member), co-founded an offshoot of the religious movement to confront the spread of communism during the Cold War. Both the LDP and Moon were staunchly anti-communist and deeply conservative.
Japan “has been remarkably fertile ground for so-called 'new religions.' If one thinks of the Unification Church in those terms, it is less surprising that it took root and gained political ground,” says Boling.
Over the years, the relationship evolved into one of mutual pragmatic benefit. The church would pay for LDP members to speak at their events, and in return, they would obtain the material support and manpower via donations and volunteers for campaigns that help meet Moonie political objectives, which often align with the ruling party’s.
“The LDP helped the church gain a sense of legitimacy in Japan,” says Charles T. McClean, a Japan researcher at Yale University’s Council on East Asian Studies. And that legitimacy translated into an economic windfall for the Moonies.
In little over half a century, Moon’s church has built a multibillion-dollar global business empire that owns the conservative Washington Times newspaper Moon founded, the New Yorker hotel in the Big Apple, and other vast real-estate assets. The Moonies supported Richard Nixon’s presidential campaign through organized prayer breakfasts and rallies, and in the 1980s the church attracted controversy for cozying up to America’s New Right.
Despite these notable connections, most of the church’s wealth comes from Japan. Japanese members have traditionally provided as much as 70% of the Unification Church’s financial resources, later funneled via South Korea to finance Moon’s ambitions in the US and elsewhere.
The Moonies are notorious in Japan for their so-called “spiritual-pressure sales” method of extracting donations through manipulation and cajoling, bankrupting many of the faithful – like the mother of Abe’s suspected killer.
So, what’s next for politicians tied to the church? For McClean, the cabinet shakeup was “a dam to prevent leaks before it becomes a larger flood.” But the bigger question is whether the continuing ties between the LDP and the church will have severe consequences for Kishida and his party's future.
The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party has already denounced Kishida’s reshuffle as a cover-up. (A dozen CDP lawmakers have admitted to having church ties, but the LDP has gotten most of the flak because it has governed Japan for most of the country’s postwar history.)
The overlap of religion in politics and business is standard practice in Japan, where some 180,000 groups are officially registered as religious corporations. The LDP is just one of the many parties that employ religion to raise the funds and votes necessary to thrive.
Komeito, the LDP’s junior coalition partner since 1999, draws almost all of its financial support from the Buddhist group Soka Gakkai, with eight million followers just in Japan.
The LDP and Komeito have had a strained alliance in the past, and with intense scrutiny over the LDP’s involvement with the church, Komeito may feel an increased threat to its survival. But McClean says the LDP depends on Komeito to campaign because the ruling party lacks its partner’s strong grassroots ability to turn out the vote, not to mention the Soka Gakkai constituency.
“It’s hard to predict how much the current scandal will negatively impact the LDP over the next few months,” McClean explains. “At least through Abe’s state funeral, I don’t see it going away … we’ll definitely be talking about it over the next month.”
Boling however, sees it lasting longer: “The opposition parties will keep cranking up the heat on Kishida. Japanese media has been aggressively reporting on the LDP-Unification Church connection, and they’ll continue to shine a glaring light on it.”
Still, the Moonies are just one of Kishida’s growing problems. Together with COVID, soaring inflation, and a majority of Japanese citizens opposing the taxpayer-funded state funeral planned for Abe on Sept. 27, things are looking bad for the PM in the near term.
“Kishida must focus on the economy like a laser beam,” says Boling. “The top issue by far is the economy — Kishida ignores that at his peril.”
Reflecting on Shinzo Abe and how his legacy will impact Japan's future
Japan was rattled by the shocking assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo. Ian Bremmer speaks to longtime Abe adviser Tomohiko Taniguchi about Abe's foreign policy legacy.
In a GZERO World interview, they discuss whether current PM Fumio Kishida can pick up where his old boss left off, and how Abe's untimely death might ultimately change Japan. Is the time right to now realize Abe's unfulfilled dream of amending Japan's postwar pacifist constitution?
Taniguchi also shares how he felt when he found out his close friend had died. "I was filled with a lot of but different emotions all at the same time," he tells Ian. "Disbelief, grief, [but] the strongest emotion, of course, was anger.
In the future, Taniguchi hopes that the legacy of Japan's "cheerleader-in-chief" will help the country change for the better.
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- Will Shinzo Abe's dream come true now? - GZERO Media ›
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- Grief & controversy in Japan for Shinzo Abe's state funeral - GZERO Media ›
Shinzo Abe’s goal of militarization & PM Kishida’s “golden opportunity” to reform Japan
Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has vowed to continue where his ex-boss, the late Shinzo Abe, left off. And he just got the parliamentary majority he needs to get big things done — including, perhaps, tweaking the constitution like Abe long dreamed of.
"Kishida now [has a] golden opportunity," Tomohiko Taniguchi, Abe's former adviser and close friend, tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
But it won't be easy, and constitutional change is not the only big agenda item. In fact, Taniguchi would rather Kishida prioritize re-writing Japan's social contract to spending less on the elderly and more on young Japanese. Still, he believes changing the constitution is long overdue, and the PM has now been endowed with enough political capital to "tackle these issues head-on."
Watch the GZERO World episode: Assassinated! Japan’s grief & how Shinzo Abe’s goals will shape Asia
Assassinated! Japan’s grief & how Shinzo Abe’s goals will shape Asia
How will the shocking assassination of Shinzo Abe, Japan's former and longest-serving prime minister, reshape the country and the broader region?
And will it lead to realizing Abe's unfulfilled dream of amending Japan's postwar pacifist constitution?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to longtime Abe adviser Tomohiko Taniguchi, who shares how he felt when he found out his close friend had died.
Taniguchi also weighs in on Abe's foreign policy legacy, whether current PM Fumio Kishida can pick up where his old boss left off, and how Abe's untimely death might ultimately change Japan.
- Will Shinzo Abe's dream come true now? - GZERO Media ›
- How did Shinzo Abe change Japan, and the world? - GZERO Media ›
- Japan's “JFK” moment: Shinzo Abe assassinated - GZERO Media ›
- Japan's Shinzo Abe assassinated - GZERO Media ›
- Grief & controversy in Japan for Shinzo Abe's state funeral - GZERO Media ›
- Grief & controversy in Japan for Shinzo Abe's state funeral - GZERO Media ›
Japan’s history of political assassinations
The shocking assassination a week ago of former Prime Minister Shinzo has rattled Japan, where such acts of political violence are now extremely rare — but were once common.
In 1932, the head of government was killed by army cadets in an attempted coup. In 1960, Abe's own grandfather, also then-PM, survived a knife attack. Japan's last high-profile assassination occurred that same year, when a socialist politician was stabbed to death on national television.
We don't know yet how Abe's death will impact Japanese politics moving forward, but his party swept the vote in an election held three days later. An outpouring of sympathy for the former PM probably made all the difference.
The resounding victory might help the ruling achieve some of Abe's unfulfilled dreams when he was in office.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Assassinated! Japan’s grief & how Shinzo Abe’s goals will shape Asia