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FILE PHOTO: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan attends the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, November 19, 2024.
Turkey offers to mediate in Sudanese civil war
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called Sudanese Armed Forces Gen. Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan on Friday offering to help resolve the country’s civil war by mediating negotiations with the rebels and their alleged backers, the United Arab Emirates. The offer comes just days after Erdoğan negotiated an agreement to avoid conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia over port access, as Turkey looms ever larger in the politics of the Horn of Africa.
An end to the fighting is desperately needed. Nearly 15 million Sudanese have fled their homes, according to the International Organization for Migration, one of the worst refugee crises in modern history. Aid organizations struggle to reach major population centers due to intense fighting, leading to widespread hunger and disease. And in the western region of Darfur, Rapid Support Forces are accused of carrying out genocidal violence and mass rape against Black ethnic groups like the Masalit and Fur.
US and Saudi-led negotiations produced a ceasefire in May of 2023, only for it to collapse within 24 hours. Since then, the violence has raged unchecked. SAF airstrikes have devastated the capital Khartoum, but they are unable to dislodge RSF infantry, allegedly supplied via UAE airlifts to neighboring Chad. Abu Dhabi denies any involvement.
Why is Turkey getting involved? For a shot at swaying the post-war order in its favor. Ankara and Abu Dhabi’s relations have been severely strained in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring, when they have found themselves backing opposing sides of crises in Egypt, Syria, Yemen, and Qatar, as well as diplomatic normalization with Israel. Finding a mediated end to the war reduces the risk that the allegedly Emirati-backed RSF comes out on top.
Avoiding that outcome plays into Turkey’s broader strategy in northeast Africa, which it sees as a key source of future economic growth and political clout. Turkey spent the last decade actively encouraging investment and trade with Sudan and Ethiopia, and the military has provided major backing to Somalia in an effort to stabilize the strategically-placed country. A stable, Turkish-aligned Red Sea coast could present both a tempting market and a key check on regional rivals in the Middle East.Skykline of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on November 21, 2022 .
Will rabbi’s murder in the UAE amplify Iran-Israel tensions?
Israeli authorities condemned the murder of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, an Israeli-Moldovan 28-year-old whose body was discovered Sunday in the United Arab Emirates, as an“antisemitic terrorist attack.” They are investigating potential Iranian involvement, including Uzbek nationals with suspected links to Iran. In response, the Iranian embassy in the UAE said it “categorically rejects the allegations of Iran’s involvement in the murder of this individual.”
The UAE has arrested three suspects but has provided no further details. Should a link to Iran be established, it would likely renew calls for retaliation by Israel, and possibly set off a new cycle of escalation.
Meanwhile, Israeli military operations continue in both Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli army ordered the evacuation of a suburb of Gaza City on Sunday after Hamas militants fired rockets at Israel,prompting a new wave of displacements in the enclave. Hamasclaimed late Sunday that a female Israeli hostage had been killed in Israeli operations in northern Gaza, but Israel said it was unable to verify the information.
In Lebanon, an Israeli airstrike targeted an army center, resulting in the death of one soldier and injuries to 18 others. Hezbollah retaliated on Sunday by launching 340 drones and rockets into Israel andclaimed to have also destroyed a total of 11 Israeli tanks in a series of ground battles. Talks over a potential cease-fire with Hezbollah have thus far been fruitless, but the Israeli ambassador to the US said a deal could be reached “within days” on Monday.
The UAE’s hidden hand in Sudan’s humanitarian crisis
The war in Sudan between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and Sudanese Armed Forces has created one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, and it is becoming increasingly apparent that the United Arab Emirates is playing a role in prolonging it.
Passports recovered from battlefields in Sudan suggest the United Arab Emirates is covertly putting boots on the ground to support the RSF — a charge the UAE denies. The allegations come after a UN report surfaced evidence the UAE has provided weapons to the RSF to the degree many analysts believe that “without the UAE’s alleged involvement, the conflict driving the world’s worst ongoing humanitarian crisis would already be over.”
Why would the UAE support the war? Sudan is key, militarily and economically, to the UAE’s strategy in Africa and the Middle East. Militarily, it has sourced fighters from both factions to join its conflict in Yemen. Economically, it is the primary importer of Sudan’s gold, and it plans to develop ports along its Red Sea coast. Meanwhile, Iran is supplying weapons to SAF, and Russia is supporting both sides in exchange for access to a strategic Red Sea port.
The United States plans to revive peace talks next month in Switzerland, where the UAE is invited to attend as an observer. US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield says Washington has “engaged” with the UAE on the issue. But Washington faces accusations of hypocrisy, as it calls for an end to weapons supplies in Sudan while continuing to provide billions’ worth to Israel during its offensive on Gaza.
Biden, Microsoft, and the United Arab Emirates
Microsoft has quickly become the most important investor in artificial intelligence technology, holding a $13 billion stake in ChatGPT-maker OpenAI. It’s a peculiar deal with a revenue-sharing agreement that’s raised eyebrows from global regulators. But its latest billion-dollar investment is perhaps even more of an eyebrow-raiser.
The US tech giant announced last week that it would invest $1.5 billion in G42, a leading artificial intelligence holding company based in Abu Dhabi. The deal was “largely orchestrated” by the Biden administration, according to the New York Times, an effort to beat back China and gain influence in the Persian Gulf.
“There’s no question the investment was made to try and box out Chinese investment” in artificial intelligence in the Middle East, said Alexis Serfaty, a director in Eurasia Group’s geo-technology practice.
Under the terms of the new deal, Microsoft will let G42 sell its generative AI services and, in exchange, G42 will use Microsoft’s Azure cloud services. It also agreed to stricter assurances with the US government to further cut off China and remove their products and technology from use.
It’s not every day that the White House plays corporate dealmaker, but the administration hasn’t been shy about making AI — and the chips needed to power it — an economic and national security priority. Serfaty said the closest parallel he could think of was the proposed Trump administration deal to hand a stake of TikTok to the US software and cloud giant Oracle. (TikTok’s Chinese parent company ByteDance never sold a stake of its social media app to Oracle, but it did strike a deal to host its US user data on Oracle servers). Plus, the US has recently given massive grants and favorable loans to global chip manufacturers—like TSMC and Samsung—for moving production to the US.
The Biden administration has imposed strict export controls on US-made chips going to China, especially powerful ones used to run artificial intelligence models. The goal: cut off China and hamper their ability to build powerful AI. Tech investments in the Persian Gulf have been something of a casualty of this Cold War over AI. G42 announced in December 2023 that it would cut ties with China in order to keep working with US industry.
“For better or worse, as a commercial company, we are in a position where we have to make a choice,” G42 CEO Peng Xiao told the Financial Times. “We cannot work with both sides. We can’t.”
Serfaty said that the deal signals that the US government is going to increasingly treat artificial intelligence like defense technology, and play a more hands-on role in its commercial affairs and investment.
“When it comes to emerging technology, you cannot be both in China’s camp and our camp,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told the Times.
Oil money meets AI
Discussion of the global race for AI dominance and influence often centers on the United States and China, with Europe forcing itself into the discussion with groundbreaking regulation and the occasional influential startup. But in the Persian Gulf, wealthy states are just as serious about getting in on this powerful — and lucrative — technology.
The New York Times reported last week that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia plans to create a $40 billion fund solely to invest in artificial intelligence. If this comes to fruition, it will make the Saudi government the world’s largest investor in AI. Next door, the United Arab Emirates has similar ambitions. Through Abu Dhabi’s Advanced Technology Research Council, the government poured millions into a powerful large language model called Falcon, only to release it open-source in September. Meanwhile, OpenAI chief Sam Altman has reportedly sought upwards of $7 trillion from funders including the UAE for a global chip startup.
Alexa Parks, an associate at the Eurasia Group, says both countries have been “relatively ahead of the curve” on AI with the UAE appointing the world’s first AI minister in 2017 and Saudi Arabia declaring in 2020 that it sought a domestic AI market worth $135 billion by 2030.
For Saudi Arabia, in particular, technology is “one of the few non-oil sectors that has successfully and consistently attracted significant foreign direct investment pledges,” Parks says. Both countries have pledged massive amounts to building data centers necessary for running powerful AI, plans that may put them in competition for regional dominance. The two countries seek global influence in the increasingly important AI market, but also financial returns on their investments.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in some ways caught in the middle of a broader economic and technological war between the US and China over AI. The US has enacted strict export controls on AI and semiconductor technology with the aim of kneecapping China, especially their military ambitions with AI. G42, one of the UAE’s largest tech firms recently cut ties with China, which should position them to better engage with US-based AI companies in the future. “We haven't seen any Saudi firms be forced to make this choice yet, but it seems likely that it will happen eventually,” Parks says. “Until then, Riyadh will be content to pursue Chinese and Western tech ties and investments to build up its local tech sector as much as possible.”
On Friday, we saw some signals that some US-based AI companies won’t be so quick to take on the potential regulatory risks related to taking Gulf money: Anthropic is reportedly lining up new investors, but already ruled out Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, citing national security risks.
These countries’ deep-pockets and investments will make them unavoidable players in the artificial intelligence race, but in order to succeed they may need to choose sides in a broader conflict—though some major players will just flatly reject their money.
FILE PHOTO: Somali supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan hold Turkey's flag during celebrations after the second round of the presidential election, in Mogadishu, Somalia May 29, 2023.
Somalia signs defense pact with Turkey amid tensions with Ethiopia
Turkey confirmed Thursday that it has signed a defense agreement with Somalia. The deal commits Ankara to defending Somali waters and to helping Mogadishu build up its navy against “foreign interference” – a veiled reference to rising tensions with Ethiopia.
Last month, Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway state of Somaliland allowing Ethiopia to utilize the port of Berbera in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. Ethiopia is the world’s most populous landlocked country, so securing sea access is vital, but Mogadishu says the deal is an unacceptable violation of its sovereignty.
Could it come to war? The United States is certainly concerned, with Washington’s top Africa diplomat, Assistant Secretary of State Molly Phee, shuttling between meetings with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and telling reporters “the region can ill-afford more conflict.” The European and African Unions, the Arab League, and Egypt are all echoing US and Turkish calls for Somali sovereignty to be respected.
But we’ve got our eye on the United Arab Emirates, which previously facilitated ties between Ethiopia and Somaliland and could lean on its growing military influence in the Horn of Africa to sway the course of events – particularly with African Union troops set to pull out of Somalia this year.
AI for good, AI for bad: Bringing balance to the force
AI comes with a lot of stigma. Popular storylines in books and movies have trained us to see artificial intelligence as a bad actor that can take control over humanity and destroy us, says Omar Sultan al Olama, the UAE's Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence.
Minister al Olama, speaking in a GZERO Global Stage discussion from the 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, highlights that in the UAE, AI development isn't just focused on productivity and economic gains, but on its potential to improve quality of life. One way to flip the script on AI as simply a scary tech straight out of a sci-fi thriller? Create more content that sheds light on AI's upsides, says al Olama.
The conversation was part of the Global Stage series, produced by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. These discussions convene heads of state, business leaders, technology experts from around the world for critical debate about the geopolitical and technology trends shaping our world.
Watch the full conversation here: How is the world tackling AI, Davos' hottest topic?
- Episode 7: How AI is changing our economy ›
- Azeem Azhar explores the future of AI ›
- Staving off "the dark side" of artificial intelligence: UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed ›
- How AI can be used in public policy: Anne Witkowsky ›
- Will consumers ever trust AI? Regulations and guardrails are key ›
- Podcast: Talking AI: Sociologist Zeynep Tufekci explains what's missing in the conversation ›
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin speaks at a joint press conference with South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup in Seoul, South Korea, 31 January 2023.
What We’re Watching: Pentagon leak fallout, Manhattan DA sues House Republicans, new source of tension in Ethiopia
The fog of leaks
Fallout continues from the leak of secret US documents related to the war in Ukraine. The leaked info suggests that Egypt, one of the world’s largest recipients of US military aid, planned to secretly supply Russia with tens of thousands of rockets for use in Ukraine and that the United Arab Emirates, also a key US ally, would help Russia work against US and UK intelligence. Egypt and the UAE say these reports are false.
Another document suggests that US eavesdropping on its ally South Korea indicated that aides to South Korea’s president had discussed sending artillery shells to the US or Poland for use by Ukraine, a move that would violate South Korea’s policy of refusing to export weapons to any country at war.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has claimed that “quite a few of the documents in question were fabricated,” but he isn’t saying what’s true and what isn’t. The world may never know who leaked these documents, why they were leaked, and which parts of them, if any, were entirely fabricated or partially altered. But the headaches for those who must now repair damaged international relationships are real, and the domestic political fallout for leaders of some of these countries, particularly South Korea, will continue.
Manhattan DA sues House Republicans
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced Tuesday that he’s suing House Republicans for allegedly interfering in the criminal case against former President Donald Trump.
Bragg’s lawsuit is focused on the actions of Congressman Jim Jordan of Ohio, who chairs the House Judiciary Committee. In the 50-page suit, Bragg accuses Jordan of “a transparent campaign to intimidate and attack” the district attorney as his office pursues criminal charges against the former president for allegedly breaking campaign finance laws by making a hush-money payment to a porn star.
House Republicans have demanded that Bragg’s office hand over documents and testimony related to the Trump case, insisting that the committee has oversight rights. Crucially, Jordan had issued a subpoena for Mark F. Pomerantz to deliver a closed-door deposition. Pomerantz is a former assistant DA who left his job last year after Bragg reportedly opposed a wider tax-and-insurance fraud prosecution of Trump, which Pomerantz favored.
Bragg has sued to block the subpoena saying it amounts to “an unconstitutional attempt to undermine an ongoing New York felony criminal prosecution and investigation.”
Whatever happens, as this case makes its way through the courts, Jordan will be delayed in getting his hands on the documents and testimony he is seeking.
Fresh unrest hits Ethiopia
For almost a week now, protests have raged in the Ethiopian region of Amhara over a federal government plan to absorb local security forces into the national army.
The tensions are only the latest example of how fragmented Africa’s second most populous country has become. It was just months ago that the government finally reached a peace deal with separatist militants from the region of Tigray, ending a gruesome civil war that had displaced millions.
In that conflict, as it happens, Amhara’s local forces fought alongside the government, pursuing long-standing grievances and territorial claims against their Tigrayan neighbors.
Now Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed wants to eliminate all regional forces of that kind. For Abiy, it’s necessary to strengthen national unity. He won’t back down, he says, even if a “price needs to be paid.” But the Amharas worry that without those forces, they’ll be vulnerable to fresh attacks from other ethnic groups or the federal government itself.
That puts Abiy in a familiar bind. Five years after popular protests swept him to power with a mandate to liberalize Ethiopia’s political system, he is still struggling to master the country’s ferocious ethnic and regional rivalries.