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Graphic of exit poll data
Graphic Truth: US voting shifts from 2020 to 2024
The votes are still being tallied following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, but looking at preliminary voter data gives clues to what happened in the American electorate last week.
The final vote numbers for Democrats are expected to continue to rise, especially since California is still being counted, and pollster Nate Silver projects that Kamala Harris will win around 75.7 million voters and Trump will win 77.9 million. But it is clear that Harriswill not match Joe Biden’s Democratic turnout in 2020. A large portion of this can be attributed to Democrats having control over the White House this time around. History shows us that voters turn out at higher numbers when they are voting their opposing party out of office.
This is disheartening for Democrats considering they upped this spending from 2020, shelling out $1.51 billion compared to the GOP’s $1.03 billion. Breaking that down by cost per vote, Democrats spent $7 more than the Republicans did for each vote in 2024, and a vote for Harris cost $9 more than for Biden in 2020.
Exit polls also show that the Democrats lost votes among Black and Latino voters. Trump gained 19 points among Latino men and 8 points among Latino women. Among Black voters, three out of 10 men under age 45 went for Trump, roughly double the share he got in 2020.
President Joe Biden speaks as he announces a new plan for federal student loan relief during a visit to Madison Area Technical College Truax Campus, in Madison, Wisconsin, on April 8, 2024.
The battle for Gen Z
With President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau facing upcoming elections, the battle is on to capture young voters. Biden will face former President Donald Trump next November, and the next Canadian election is due by the fall of 2025, but both contests are already underway. Younger folks in both countries are turning increasingly sour on the status quo as they face affordability challenges and feel left behind.
Trudeau has expressly said his government was focusing on Gen Z and millennials, “restoring fairness for them.” And on Tuesday, his government unveiled its “Gen Z budget,” going all in on measures for parents with younger children (new cash for childcare and a school food program), students (interest-free student loans), and housing policy aimed at opening space in the market for younger buyers who’ve been shut out in recent years (with a first-time buyer, 30-year mortgage amortization period and tax breaks for home purchases).
In the US, young voters are focused on affordability, abortion rights, the environment, and student debt, and Democrats will need those folks to turn out on Election Day if they hope to retain the White House and make gains in Congress. Those 43 and under are frustrated with the housing market. Democrats are working to get on abortion rights on the ballot in key states, and the Biden administration is touting the impact of its Inflation Reduction Act on the environment. The president also hopes efforts to eliminate student debt will help alleviate some cost-of-living concerns for young voters.
But Biden is also facing a backlash from Gen Z voters over Gaza and US funding for Israel. The president had hoped tougher talk on Israel would boost his reelection bid, but that’s been complicated by Iran’s attack – although the administration has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that it won’t support reprisals against Iran.
Both Biden and Trudeau need younger voters to turn out to vote for them. In 2016, Biden dominated the Millennial and Gen Z vote by about 20 points over Trump. And while Canada’s Liberals managed a minority government in 2021 with a youth vote that was likely a near-split with the Conservatives, younger voters played a crucial role in Trudeau’s 2015 majority government victory.
This means the coming months will see increasing efforts focused on wooing younger generations.
will us voters show up
The Graphic Truth: Will US voters show up?
Is Trump a demagogue or a revolutionary? Is Biden a consensus builder or a divider-in-chief? Most Americans already hold firm views of the Republican and Democratic parties, and their midterm votes have been set in stone for some time. In tight races, however, the difference will be decided by whether the politically indifferent demographic decides to vote. Getting out the vote is much easier for presidential races, which many voters see as more consequential than midterms. But that trend may be shifting. We look at voter turnout in presidential elections vs. midterms since 1980, and zoom in on the turnout in some key battleground states.
Election Night: Key states to watch & record-shattering voter turnout
Jon Lieber, Managing Director for the United States at the Eurasia Group, shares his perspective on a special US election edition of US Politics In 60 Seconds:
So, we're about five days out from the election right now.
And the story of this week has been the remarkably steady polling lead for Joe Biden that he's had for months now. The other big story is the turnout, massive amounts of turnout. 100% of the 2016 vote already cast in Texas. 60% nationwide votes already cast. We are headed for record shattering turnout, could be around 155 million Americans voting.
On election night, what are we watching for?
First thing we're watching for is, does Trump win Florida? If he loses Florida, Florida counts quickly, we may know the results late in the night on Tuesday. If Trump loses Florida, then he really doesn't have a path. If he wins Florida, the next state we're going to be looking at is Pennsylvania. Right now, he's down by six votes, six points there. But if he has a lot of turnout for rural White voters, which is his base, it's possible he can turnout a victory. You also have the Supreme Court indicating that they're willing to re-look at Pennsylvania's election laws, even after the deadline because a state court in Pennsylvania said that votes in the mail that are received up to three days after election night could still be counted.
The Supreme Court may overturn that ruling. Another state to watch, Arizona. A Biden win there would be the end of the road for Donald Trump. They also count relatively quickly. They'll be finishing by 10:00 PM Eastern time when they start reporting. A lot of experience with vote by mail. Another thing to watch on Tuesday night is going to be the Senate results. A Biden presidency is effectively going to be stopped in its tracks if Republicans continue to hold the Senate.
So, it's really important for Democrats that they win, if they want to achieve anything next year. So, states that we're watching, Arizona, Colorado likely to flip to Democrats. And then they need two of Maine, North Carolina, Montana, and Iowa, all of which are very, very close races right now. Probably they pick up votes in Maine, seats in Maine, North Carolina and Iowa. And that will be enough for the majority.
The other big question is, do we know on Tuesday or how long after that day do we have to wait until we find out?
That's a real wild card. Florida, Arizona count quickly, like I said. Pennsylvania counts pretty slow. If there's a protracted battle and it comes down to Pennsylvania, you're going to see a lot of legal wrangling over those last few votes. However, Biden's lead there is pretty big right now. Six points in the polling averages, which makes it less likely you have a disputed outcome.