What are the best ways to stay informed of emerging risks and opportunities in scenario planning?

1 Scan the environment

One of the key steps in scenario planning is to scan the environment for signals of change. These are events, trends, or indicators that suggest a shift in the external factors that influence your scenarios. For example, a new technology, a regulatory change, a social movement, or a natural disaster. You should scan the environment regularly and systematically, using a variety of sources and perspectives. You can use tools like PESTEL analysis, SWOT analysis, or STEEPLED analysis to categorize and evaluate the signals of change.

2 Update your scenarios

Another important step in scenario planning is to update your scenarios based on the new information you gather from scanning the environment. You should review your scenarios periodically and check if they are still relevant, consistent, and plausible. You may need to modify, merge, or discard some scenarios, or create new ones. You should also assess the impact and likelihood of each scenario, and identify the key uncertainties and assumptions that underpin them.

3 Monitor the indicators

A third crucial step in scenario planning is to monitor the indicators that show which scenario is unfolding or becoming more probable. These are measurable variables that reflect the state or direction of the external factors that influence your scenarios. For example, a market share, a consumer preference, a policy outcome, or a climate change metric. You should track and analyze the indicators regularly and compare them with your expectations and projections. You should also look for surprises and anomalies that challenge your assumptions.

4 Engage your stakeholders

A fourth valuable step in scenario planning is to engage your stakeholders in the process of staying informed of the emerging risks and opportunities. These are the people who have an interest or influence in your scenarios, such as your customers, partners, employees, competitors, or regulators. You should communicate and collaborate with them to share insights, feedback, and ideas. You should also involve them in the creation and update of your scenarios, and solicit their views on the indicators and implications.

5 Learn and adapt

A fifth essential step in scenario planning is to learn and adapt from the information you collect and the interactions you have with your stakeholders. You should use the insights and evidence you gain from scanning the environment, updating your scenarios, monitoring the indicators, and engaging your stakeholders to inform your decisions and actions. You should also use them to improve your scenario planning process and methods, and to foster a culture of foresight and innovation in your organization.

6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?