What are the most reliable sources of information for making decisions?

Of all the options available, experience sits right at the top. If you know people who have experience, supposedly called experts, then you certainly have an ace up your sleeve. However, doing an activity, say A, for 15 years is actually 1 year experience multiplied by a factor of 15. The point is when you are looking for experts, look for people who have diverse experiences. This will help them having a balanced perspective.

To seek out good information for making decisions, it's not just about "what" but also about "who." In his book "Principles," Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of seeking diverse and credible sources of information for decision-making. He advocates for gathering input from people with different perspectives and expertise, including those who might disagree with you or challenge your assumptions. Dalio stresses the value of "believability-weighted decision-making," where the weight of each source's input is determined by their credibility and track record of accuracy. He encourages individuals to consider both qualitative and quantitative data, recognizing that relying solely on one type of information can lead to blind spots and biases.

As much as I put insights and opinions from experts on top of the importance criteria, I remind myself that the best decisions must include having some element of a "beginner mindset". It is with that fresh perspective we can actually ask fundamental questions that can improve the chances of seeing through potential flaws in any decisions. If we believe that we are experts and we know it all or there is an expert who knows it all, there is a high likelihood of going completely wrong due to the possibility of the "blindspots" in front of the expertise that we take pride in.

When it comes to making decisions, it's important to gather information from reliable sources 1. Expert opinions: Seek advice from professionals, subject matter experts. 2. Scientific research: Peer-reviewed studies published in academic journals provide insights and evidence-based information. 3. Government sources: provide reliable data and information on various topics. 4. Academic institutions: research institutions provide reliable information on specific subjects. 5. Official statistics: Data from government agencies and reputable research institutes. However, it's important to critically evaluate the information from these sources, and make well-informed decisions.

The opinion of an expert is definitely helpful in the process of decision making. However, even the best of experts makes decision that are influenced by their personal biases. For that reasons, I would suggest pairing the expertise with field research and testing.

Data and analytics are indeed pivotal in decision-making, offering a quantitative foundation to our strategic choices. Yet, it's crucial to remember that data is not just numbers but a narrative. It tells the story of past performances, customer behaviors, and market trends. Analytics is our interpreter, translating complex datasets into actionable insights. To leverage them effectively, we must ensure the integrity and context of data, questioning its sources and potential biases. Moreover, integrating qualitative insights with quantitative data enriches our understanding, allowing for decisions that are not only statistically sound but also aligned with our business ethos and customer values

Data with proper provenance is inevitably the most trustworthy. Data which can be validated is equally vital. The slope of reliability runs downhill from there. Maintaining a chain of custody is so important to retain data integrity. Finally, sources which are under legal oversight tend to have a higher order of integrity.

Data and analytics are tools, not oracles. They inform and guide but do not dictate the final call. It's through the human capacity to interpret and adapt that we truly harness their power. In my career, the balance of data-driven insights and contextual wisdom has been paramount. This synergy is the compass where we navigate the complex waters and at the end, it's all about people..

While this may not be 100% true, feedback does hold it's place in decisions. Sometimes they do help to access a situation from another angle. The drawback with feedback is it's limited context.

Making informed decisions is an art that requires a perfect mix of experience, data analysis, and the ability to identify prior characteristics seasoned with intuition. While data and information from reliable sources lay the foundation for any decision, it's the lens of personal experience that genuinely sharpens the focus. Through fact-checking and rigorous data analysis, we can unearth valuable insights and trends. However, it's our prior experiences and knowledge that give us the context to interpret this information effectively. Sometimes, decision-making is believing that, according to "gut feeling", I could achieve better results.

In my experience, we usually have enough data and resources to support the process and the paths of the decision we are considering. However, sometimes we ignore one poweful source of information "people expertise". I do not mean board of directors and high level executives but people who are really doing the job, the ones who knows the process and its flaws. Managing by wandering around (mbwa) done right can easily feed the executives with different and valuable perspectives of how the company is really dealing with the issue that is under consideration. Although some may think that this is impossible in our remote world, there are some ways you can capture the information you need if you make the effort to do so.

To make decisions amid uncertainty and ambiguity, it's essential to employ a combination of thorough information gathering and critical thinking. Regularly update your knowledge base, seek diverse sources of information, and consider various perspectives to enhance the quality and relevance of the data you rely on. Additionally, be aware of cognitive biases that may skew your interpretation of information. Engaging in open dialogue, consulting experts, and remaining adaptable in your approach can help ensure that you are using the best available information to make well-informed decisions. Over time, experience helps you get comfortable making decisions with imperfect information, again- with experience.

More often than not over my last 25+ years, I have observed leaders including myself having to make decisions with partial and incomplete information and that is all you have with all the models at your disposal. Those models help with the tradeoffs but there are no guarantees. So, understand your tradeoffs and also build as much contingency/ mitigation as you can in case your decision was not the right one. That is the best way to learn and improve your decision making process with each decision you make.

You will never have all the information that you want. Leaders learn to be comfortable making decisions with 75% of the information. The other 25% will either come in too late or will not change your mind. Know how long you can wait before indecision starts to negatively impact the organization. Sometimes you can wait longer and gather more information. Other times, delaying the decision will create cost or chaos or other problems. Make the decision and move on. If you made a bad decision, you'll find out soon enough. And then you should make another decision. A mediocre decision executed with passion in a timely manner is better than a perfect decision too late.

What I am missing in this article is Generative AI sources. Although GenAI does have its challenges in terms of privacy and the lawmakers need to put this sector on guardrails, I already see e.g. Bing Chat, ChatGPT or GROK being considered as a reliable source of information. To me it is more important than ever to develop Critical Thinking and a mindset that does not simply copy paste whatever GenAI is producing and considering it as truthful source for decision making purposes.

It's crucial to remain adaptable and open to changing circumstances when making decisions. Collaboration is also essential, as it allows a diverse range of perspectives to be considered. Clear communication is critical for conveying findings and ensuring that all stakeholders understand the reasoning behind them. A robust decision-making framework should be built on strategic timing and risk tolerance considerations. Lastly, fostering a culture of learning from failures is essential to promote continuous improvement and resilience. These five pillars of decision-making promote agility, inclusivity, and effective outcomes.

For business decisions, reliable sources include market research reports, financial statements, industry publications, and insights from experienced professionals. Utilize reputable business news sources, consult with experts, and analyze data from reliable databases to inform your strategic choices.