Armstrong Economics

New York state has enacted a bill to extort fossil fuel companies in the name of climate change. Governor Kathy Hochul believes the bill will generate $75 billion in funds for the state over the next 25 years, which she claims will be used to fight climate change. Why would any energy company want to operate out of New York? The fines for merely existing are unclear, but the New York Department of Environmental Conservation will begin determining the extent of each company’s greenhouse gas emissions. Worse, they will begin fining companies for the amount they began releasing 24 years ago in 2000. ANY company that the department deems “responsible” for greenhouse gas emissions is subject to a fine. Vermont was the first state to enact such a law under the Climate Superfund Act. Oil and energy companies are mandated to pay into a climate change fund if they have released over 1 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases from 1995 – nearly 30 years ago – until now. “This bill represents a major step forward in ensuring that responsible parties, like Big Oil – companies like ExxonMobil and Shell that have known for decades that their products are disrupting the climate – be required to also pay a fair share of the cleanup costs,” the Vermont Natural Resources Council said after blaming the industry for the catastrophic flooding that occurred earlier in the year. American Petroleum Institute declared that this tax unjustifiably violated due process of rights. Society at large is dependent on fossil fuels, but these taxes aim to extort profitable companies that have been providing a service to the public. Both Vermont and New York have also failed to explain how they will calculate emissions or the true costs involved. Imagine if the government told you that you needed to pay additional taxes spanning back decades. This is absolute insanity and yet another brain-dead policy aimed at punishing fossil fuels. Stepping on the neck of a crucial sector is not how to generate state revenue. Anyone cheering that these laws punish Big Oil fails to understand that these fees will simply be passed down to the consumer as residents of New York and Vermont should expect to pay more in energy costs in the near term. https://lnkd.in/ePU_TQmQ

Governments are eager to spend your tax dollars on useless initiatives to save the planet from global warming. The Biden Administration spent BILLIONS on investing in EV infrastructure that never came to fruition. I spoke on how Biden approved of a $7.5 billion spending package to build EV charging stations throughout the nation, but only SEVEN were produced in over a two-year span. His most recent climate debacle that came to light rests on decarbonizing the Postal Service. The government provided the Postal Service with funding to purchase 60,000 “Next Generation Delivery Vehicles” (NGDVs) from defense contractor Oshkosh. Oshkosh has never produced an electric truck and it is obvious why Biden avoided other more established EV manufacturers. Congress approved $3 billion to spend on this $10 billion project derived from the Inflation Reduction Act – the largest guise for climate spending in US history. Out of that $3 BILLION, only 93 vehicles have been delivered since 2022. Countless issues have been reported with these NGDVs from leaks to airbags. Worse, Oshkosh was never equipped to handle the production of 3,000 vehicles, and has stated that they have only been able to produce ONE truck per day. They are now working to refine their manufacturing to create 80 trucks per day. Again, there were other avenues and established factories. Does anyone believe those small mail trucks are truly polluting the environment? Should the American people simply accept that they may not receive mail when the weather is less than ideal? “Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays these couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds” unless forced to drive electric! https://lnkd.in/e-Z7QHHc

Two-thirds of American dairy farms have been eliminated within one generation. Cows produce dangerous emissions and have no place in modern society, according to the World Economic Forum and climate change proponents. We are seeing a drastic decline in dairy farms across the world thanks to this mentality. The latest crackdown on dairy farms comes from new regulations by the U.S. Department of Agriculture that demand dairy cattle be tested for the bird flu or H5N1. There has not been a single case of a person falling ill with the bird flu from drinking milk. Yet, the USDA insists farmers comply with their guidance that is no longer mandatory. The World Health Organization managed to work its way into the situation too as they have criticized the lack of testing. Again, no one has fallen ill from drinking milk. There may have been cases of infection in farmhands who had direct contact with cows, but there is not a single case proving anyone contracted H5N1 in this manner. This won’t prevent the government from spending recklessly on testing as they have already set aside $200 million. The USDA will ship samples to the National Animal Health Laboratory Network (NAHLN) for testing. Then, the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) stated they set aside $824 million in emergency funding for response and diagnostic efforts. US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said that widespread mandatory testing “will give farmers and farmworkers better confidence in the safety of their animals and ability to protect themselves, and it will put us on a path to quickly controlling and stopping the virus’s spread nationwide.” The virus is not spreading through the milk supply so why are they so eager to begin this program? Better yet, the USDA is offering farmers a measly $75 payment for personal blood and nasal swab samples for the CDC. The government has also said it would provide funding for farmers with infected cattle. Is this another excuse to add regulations to agriculture? Could there be ulterior motives here? The New York Post said that it is “unclear” whether this program will continue under Trump. https://lnkd.in/e_fK-Szx

A lot of people are fixed on what money is and presume somehow that a return to precious metals will solve the problem. Precious metals are for personal use. They have never prevented any society from systemic economic collapse. Do not confuse hoarding gold to preserve wealth with a gold standard. We had one with Bretton Woods. Governments printed and never adjusted the conversion ratio because they had to admit what they had done. The problem is not WHAT is money, the problem is regardless what money might be, politicians always spend more than what they have. The only practical solution is to eliminate the ability to borrow. Debt has destroyed every empire, state, and city since the dawn of time. Hammurabi’s Legal Code created legal limits on interest, so borrowing was a problem from the dawn of civilization. The only solution to be realistic must address the outstanding debt while eliminating the capacity to borrow. Changing to a gold standard means the outstanding debt would be due then in gold. The bankers will love that. If we default, all pension funds will go to waste, and we will be looking at massive civil unrest. We have to be practical. If we are going to follow dogma, you better dig a hole and don’t come out until the mushroom cloud subsides. This is real shit we are talking about! This is not an idealized theory. Every act will have an equal and opposite reaction. I have stated many times that unemployment hit 25% during the Great Depression because of the Dust Bowl, and 40% of the civil workforce was employed in agriculture. We are at a similar risk today, but the 40% is in government, producing nothing toward national wealth, and are public servants because we pay them to produce nothing. It is the implosion of state and local government, their inability to print into oblivion, that is the check against hyperinflation as they raise taxes and try desperately to hold on to their chiefdoms. Gold is for personal survival. Switching to gold does not address the debt, growing employment in government, the pensions, and our long-term survival. So gold may help you survive personally as the economy switches to underground, but it will not address the decades of abuse suffered under Marxism. The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn (just being a little pregnant with Marxism). https://lnkd.in/g6u44gBT

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I am new to your blog. My friends here have been on my case to listen to you. Our government has fallen, and I have observed one thing. Your forecasts are correct because nobody here will ever make a bold forecast, and they all seem to preach the same scenario. You have been accurate on Germany against the herd of analysts here. One by one, European nations are falling, and I can now see your 2032 and the e collapse of governments unfolding before our eyes. What do you see in 2025 for Germany? You have a solution for the United States. Could you save Europe from itself? Thank you DT ANSWER: Because I am not an academic, what I speak comes from experience and direct observation. The only economic theories that have survived are exclusively from those who have been traders – not academics. John Law traded on the Amsterdam exchange and gave birth to Supply and Demand. He articulated his famous water vs diamond analogy, which stated that water was vital to society. Still, water had little value compared to a diamond that had no true utility value yet was worth more than water. Even David Ricardo was involved in trading and saw the implications of international capital flows. He expressed that a nation should focus on its comparative advantage – something Trump must understand. Sir Thomas Gresham also traded on the same Amsterdam exchange and saw that debasement drove out the older coinage from the money supply. Gresham’s Law became that bad money drove good out of circulation. We saw this even during the 3rd century AD when people hoarded the old silver coins and spent the debased. Even Albert Einstein, I was told, got his idea of general relativity from moving up and down in an elevator. Albert’s special theory of relativity appeared to be incompatible with the gravitational force as described by Newton’s law of gravity. Most analysts espouse the same old nonsense and project the future based on what the central bank will or will not do. These analysts are not real, for all they purport is the same Keynesian theories they were taught in school. Sorry – they were an academic theory inspired by Marx and no longer work. Even Paul Volcker, former Fed Chairman, delivered his speech – the Rediscovery of the Business Cycle, in which he stated that the “new economics” ultimately failed. Any analyst who points to the Fed has never read the memos. Here, we have the thinking process before Keynes. The Fed raised rates in May 1928 and continued into the 1929 high with no effect. Here is a chart of call money rates from the NYSE. Just look closely. We see that 1929 was the biggest stock market rally but the lowest level of interest rates, all because of the capital inflows. The Panic of 1899 saw rates rise to virtually 200% because of the capital outflows. Click the link below for full post. https://lnkd.in/eawxG8ww  

January 6 was a staged and orchestrated event intended to criminalize Donald Trump and his supporters. There is a slew of evidence pointing to US intelligence interference, with more emerging by the week. US intelligence agencies wasted additional resources to investigate their own bureaus, “FBI’s Handling of its Confidential Human Sources and Intelligence Collection Efforts in the Lead Up to the Jan. 6, 2021 Electoral Certification.” Naturally, US intelligence found no wrongdoing on their end. Department of Justice (DOJ) Inspector General Michael E. Horowitz announced that over two dozen confidential human sources (CHS) were present at the Capitol on January 6. He admits that three FBI agents were among the crowd but insists there were no undercover officers. Twenty-six CHS agents were also among the crowd, but the report insists only three were authorized to be there. One actually entered the Capitol building while the other two made their way into restricted areas. None of those four agents were charged with committing a crime. “Our review determined that none of these FBI CHSs was authorized by the FBI to enter the Capitol or a restricted area or to otherwise break the law on January 6, nor was any CHS directed by the FBI to encourage others to commit illegal acts on January 6,” he stated. Horowitz believes that they have simply “found no evidence in the materials we reviewed or the testimony we received showing or suggesting that the FBI had undercover employees in the various protest crowds, or at the Capitol, on January 6.” The FBI applauded the investigation, which was clearly skewed in its favor, and said they would take additional precautions in January 2025. FBI Director Christopher Wray announced that he is fleeing his post before Trump takes office. “When Chris Wray first got there back in 2017, the FBI was spying on congressional hill staffers, including the guy who is slated to replace him, and then the day after he announces he’s leaving, this report comes out and confirms what so many of us suspected, that there were these confidential human sources present on Jan. 6,” House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, told Fox News. Those who read between the lines can see that the DOJ and FBI have been weaponized political tools of the deep state under the Biden-Harris regime. Over 1,265 Americans were charged in connection to the January 6 events. The government used J6 as a premise to weaponize financial institutions to spy on Americans and usurp more power. These agencies are working against the American people for the private interests of the deep state and will never admit to any wrongdoing. It is laughable to think that any agency will deter civil unrest next month at Trump’s inauguration. https://lnkd.in/ezSdFSXj

The United States Treasury Department expedited a $20 billion aid package to Ukraine as part of the 50 billion G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) Loans initiative. The establishment wants to offload these funds as quickly as possible to deter Donald Trump from reversing course and withholding aid. The funds were sent to the questionable World Bank and derived from frozen Russian assets. Will the funds be used for humanitarian aid? No one knows. Joe Biden would have had to call upon Congress to agree to send military aid, although he initially wanted to split the $20 BILLION down the line and devote half to economic aid and the other half to the military. Since there are absolutely no checks or balances on these funds, his administration simply marked it all as economic aid and wired it to the World Bank. “These funds – paid for by the windfall proceeds earned from Russia’s own immobilized assets – will provide Ukraine a critical infusion of support as it defends its country against an unprovoked war of aggression,” said Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen, who personally oversaw the transfer. “The $50 billion collectively being provided by the G7 through this initiative will help ensure Ukraine has the resources it needs to sustain emergency services, hospitals, and other foundations of its brave resistance.” Yellen followed up by stating that Putin is “engaging our coalition in a contest of wills” and hoping the West will retreat on its stance to prolong the war at all costs. She praised the “creative policymaking and the unity of the G7” for prolonging the war that would have ended years ago if not for Western interference. In fact, the war would never have begun if not for Western interference, or dare I say, the deliberate creation of this manufactured war. Not only does Yellen expect Russia to retreat, but she demands that they pay Ukraine for damages. This could never occur. The premise of aiding Ukraine has created an endless excuse to send funds into the abyss. The World Bank will allegedly place the $20 billion in the Facilitation of Resources to Invest in Strengthening Ukraine Financial Intermediary Fund, yet another overflowing fund intended to save the world from what Yellen called a “belligerent regime.” I reported how whistleblowers revealed that the World Bank had $41 billion in unaccounted funds initially destined to fight climate change. Now, the World Bank is funneling billions more under the premise of Ukraine – not to mention that the $20 billion was stolen from Russians and created a new form of economic warfare. All of this reeks of corruption. https://lnkd.in/eMWNmPbk

US-Canada relations under the Trump Administration are beginning on tumultuous footing. Trump has promised to slap Canada with 25% tariffs on ALL imports if it fails to curb illegal immigration and drug trade from the northern border. Trudeau is now threatening to retaliate with tariffs of his own. The Bank of Canada has factored in these threats in its most recent decision to raise rates by 50 bps to 3.25%. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that the new US administration presents “a major new uncertainty.” The markets had already priced in rate cuts ahead of the tariff threats, especially as inflation has allegedly reached the 2% target. This is the fifth time the Bank of Canada has cut rates in only six months after shedding 175 bps total. Yet, the central bank is not taking these tariff threats lightly because they could have a major impact on trade and the overall GDP. Macklem believes the bank can now take a “more gradual approach to monetary policy IF the economy evolves broadly as expected.” The 25% tariff would send shockwaves through the Canadian economy. Around 77% of Canada’s exports are sent to the US, totaling $548 billion in 2023. The auto ($82 billion), energy ($166 billion), and manufacturing sectors would be particularly vulnerable due to the large cross-border trade. Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, and New Brunswick send over 70% of their exports to the US. Reports state that up to 2.4 million jobs tied to these industries, or 12% of the Canadian workforce, could be at risk. Trump mocked Trudeau last month during a Mar-a-Lago dinner party after suggesting Canada could become the 51st state if it insisted on relying so heavily on the US. This week, Trump reiterated the now ongoing joke on Truth Social. “It was a pleasure to have dinner the other night with Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada. I look forward to seeing the Governor again soon so that we may continue our in depth talks on Tariffs and Trade, the results of which will be truly spectacular for all!” Trump said in a social media post. While it may be humorous to mock Trudeau, these tariffs are a serious matter. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he believes Canada should retaliate with tariffs if appropriate. “But hopefully we’ll never go down that road. It’s not worth it and we’re so much stronger together. The last country the president should be worrying about is its closest ally and friend, Canada,” he said. No one will win when using world trade as a political tool. The US economy will also feel the burden of these tariffs, and the supply chain will face disruptions. Unsettling trade with a key partner is not the way to solve the migration or illegal drug trade crises. https://lnkd.in/gU2zZpDz

Many mistakenly look to the stock market as the leading indication of economic security. The true culprit is the DEBT market, not the stock market, that leads to depressions and recessions. A recession, in comparison to a depression, is merely a minor impact that could be isolated to one nation. Unemployment will typically rise up to 10% in a recession, whereas a depression could see a 25%+ turn in unemployment. A lack of work leads to civil unrest and upheaval. Depressions are never isolated to one nation as they spread as a contagion throughout the world. You could take the stock market down 30%, even 40%, and still not create a depression. Yet, if you undermine government debt by far less, you will create a severe economic downturn. Look to the banks. Under law, banks are required to use government debt as a reserve. Undermining government debt simply wipes out the banking industry as we have historically seen when bank after bank is forced to shutter. During the Great Depression, sovereign defaults began in Europe. Look at what happened in 1931 when Europe defaulted on its debt, as did Asia and so forth since depressions become contagions. This pushed the dollar higher but not the US share market. Note that the dollar rose in value during World War I, the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis, and again for World War II. During those waves of capital flows, the bulk of that capital always moved into government bonds. This is an oversimplified version of this message but you can read more on the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis throughout this website. Governments default and then that often leads to a regime change. The incoming regime will simply say, “Oh, that was the debt of the last government and we need not pay.” Listen, the stock market could plunge 20% and the banks would be OK. But if you saw the same in the debt market, in particular sovereign debt, you’re in serious trouble. https://lnkd.in/emRfYX-B

The Pentagon announced that it will deliver a $988 million aid package to Ukraine ahead of Trump’s inauguration. The Biden Administration is rushing to deliver the remainder of the $5 BILLION pledge to Ukraine before January 20. Worse, Zelensky announced that he has plans to discuss NATO membership with Biden. “It is difficult to talk to President Trump about this because he is not yet in the White House. By the way, I am going to call President Biden in the near future to raise the issue of Ukraine’s NATO invitation,” Zelensky said. Biden has previously called Ukraine’s request for membership premature and stated that the war must end before membership can be considered. We know that the commander-in-chief had been compromised years ago, but his recent pardon of Hunter may give him less ammunition to yield to Ukraine – unless they could potentially blackmail him personally. Donald Trump recently came out to say that he has no plans to prosecute Joe Biden. The Biden family turned their hatred from Trump to the Democratic Party after they ousted Joe. Images have even emerged of Jill Biden happily sitting next to Donald Trump at the Notre Dame reopening, an image that Trump is now using in a marketing campaign. There is hope that Biden will stand firm against Ukraine’s NATO membership. Germany, Slovakia, and Hungary are also against Ukraine joining at this time, but many others are willing to expedite the process. Despite the required formal unanimous vote among the alliance, the United States is still the breadwinner for NATO and would have the final say when all is said and done. Trump would never permit Ukraine to join, but he could invoke Article 13 of the treaty and withdraw the United States. Those in opposition of Ukraine’s membership could do the same, particularly Hungary as Orban has a solid relationship with Putin and does not feel the need for protection at this time. A lot could happen over the next six weeks and time will tell what Biden has in store for the end of his presidency. https://lnkd.in/eMx5hS9F