Armstrong Economics’ Post

About time this bill got signed in the USA. "Finally, the passing of this bill will be a considerable morale boost for Ukrainian citizens and those on the front line. As President Zelensky noted in a tweet just after the bill pased, “our warriors on the front lines, as well as our cities and villages suffering from Russian terror, will feel it.” It is a major vote of confidence in the future of Ukraine. The passing of this bill may also prompt other nations to step up their support for Ukraine. There are multiple nations besides the U.S. that have stepped up and provided very significant amounts of aid for Ukraine, including the Baltics, Denmark, Poland, Scandanavian nations, Japan, Germany and Britain. However, some nations have been laggards, including my own country of Australia. Hopefully this bill might prompt the government in the land down under to be a little more generous in supporting the survival of Ukraine. But for now, the aim will be to get the aid bills back to the Senate and then signed by President Biden in the coming days. Then the hard work of rapid delivery of aid, and the stepping up of U.S. military industrial production, begins." https://lnkd.in/ghmke2dh

Some #European leaders have used the #US vote on aid to #Ukraine to urge #Europe not to be complacent and not to lose momentum in stepping up efforts to produce arms and ammunition. Source: European Pravda Details: #Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas welcomed the U.S. House of Representatives' vote on the Ukraine aid bill, noting that helping Ukraine is the best way to protect ourselves. "Hope this vote encourages all allies to look through their warehouses and do more," Kallas tweeted. "But now is also the time to remember that the EU now have to increase our own production of armaments, ammunition and supplies to aid Ukraine on a long term basis," #Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström tweeted. "Tonight’s vote shows the necessity of this. We have to do our own homework as well," he added. His #Czech counterpart, Jan Lipavský, echoed this sentiment, saying: "But Europe must do more too. Our hesitation and indecision in effectively supporting Ukraine just motivate the Kremlin to further aggression that costs more lives." A decisive test for Europe will take place on Monday when 27 EU foreign ministers will meet in #Luxembourg to plan future military assistance to #Kyiv. It is planned that Ukraine's foreign and defence ministers will join the discussion remotely. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that before the weekend, European NATO allies had vowed to increase supplies of ready-made air defence systems to Ukraine. #German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, the leading official behind the latest push to send additional air defence systems to Kyiv, welcomed the US legislative move. "This is a day of optimism for Ukraine + European security," Baerbock tweeted. https://lnkd.in/dRqR2M-j

What does the German political mess mean for Ukraine? The EUROPE four billion of promised military aid for 🇺🇦 will be flowing but beyond that one can expect little from a weakened and inward looking Germany for the next months. The next government will be likely in place in early summer and a budget adopted only in late summer or early autumn. Questions remain whether any new conservative government would be willing to invest more (by taking debt) into European and Ukrainian security. That’s bad news because before Trump comes in a lot of things could have been achieved: purchases of American arms (to lock in some future U.S. support), movement on confiscation of RU assets and most importantly European preparations on a bullish Trump, who’s likely trying to force Ukraine and Russia to freeze the war and make Europe secure it. Is Europe remotely prepared to deliver credible security guarantees? Some thoughts on that I shared in a recent Voice of America interview 👇

Via Newsweek: NATO May Deploy Troops to Ukraine if Donald Trump Cuts Support: Ex-UK PM By Ellie Cook I 13.11.2024 A Former U.K. Prime Minister said that the country may need to send troops to Ukraine if newly reelected President Donald Trump reduces U.S. funding or military support for the Ukrainians. Trump staffers' purported plan to end the war in Ukraine involves freezing all conflict at the front lines. In creating an 800-mile Demilitarized Zone, the U.S. would not send troops to keep charge of it, nor pay for it. Trump has also previously criticized NATO and discussed withdrawing the U.S. from the alliance, which coordinates "the delivery of aid from allies and partners to Ukraine." Johnson said: "What I'm saying is for people watching, thinking why are we supporting the Ukrainians? It's because otherwise our collective security will be really degraded by a resurgent Russia threatening all sorts of parts of Europe." Describing this scenario, Johnson added: "We will then have to pay to send British troops to help defend Ukraine." Another British politician, member of Parliament and leader of the political party Liberal Democrats Ed Davey, also recently spoke about his concerns regarding Trump's continued support of Ukraine. Davey echoed Johnson's statements and said, "We can't simply abandon Ukraine to Putin just because Trump's in power. We've been playing a critical role, and I think we could play an even more critical role by working with European friends, bringing together European countries so we can increase the aid to Ukraine, and pay for that by seizing Russian assets properly. We've been pushing for that for some time." Davey added: "Now is the moment to do it so Europe can fill the gap. But we have got to do it quickly." https://lnkd.in/dpqRtA8x

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is taking the plunge on a massive package of foreign aid that’s cleaved his conference and threatened his gavel, brushing off his detractors in a go-for-broke effort to help beleaguered allies overseas. Johnson has won early Democratic support for his multipronged strategy to provide military assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, accompanied by a grab-all package of Republican national security priorities designed to appease wary conservatives within the House GOP. He’s vowing that all four components will get separate votes before the week is out. But the plan drew an immediate backlash from hard-liners in his conference, including spending hawks who don’t want to pile billions more onto the national debt; isolationists who want to focus Washington’s resources on domestic problems; and a wide spectrum of rank-and-file Republicans who have demanded that the legislation include tougher security at the southern U.S. border — a notable exclusion from the Speaker’s policy blueprint.

https://lnkd.in/e44GGgT7 The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed the “minibus” spending package that combines six appropriations bills, with billions in funding for Israel and other projects supported by U.S. Jewish groups. The $1.2 trillion package, which passed 286-134 on Friday, funds the U.S. Departments of Defense, State and Homeland Security. The vote split the Republican caucus in half, garnering further opposition from progressive Democrats. It needed a two-thirds majority of 280 votes to pass. The bill, which heads to the U.S. Senate next, includes several pro-Israel measures, including $3.3 billion in foreign military financing to the Jewish state; $500 million for U.S.-Israel missile-defense cooperation; and $87.5 million in U.S.-Israel counter-drone and anti-tunneling cooperation. The bill forbids U.S. funding to the U.N.’s Palestinian aid agency UNRWA in the wake of Israeli allegations that agency staffers participated in the Oct. 7 attacks and that a substantial percentage of UNRWA employees are members of Hamas. Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart (R-Fla.) called the legislation “the most pro-Israel State and Foreign Operations bill that we have ever seen.” “One of our most important allies is in its time of greatest need,” Diaz-Balart said. “This bill answers the call.” “The passage of this bill prohibits funds for the antisemitic U.N. Commission of Inquiry against Israel,” he added. “The passage of this bill means no funds can be used to de-list the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization or to implement that infamous nuclear agreement with Iran.”

Exclusive: Western aid to Ukraine too slow, risks from U.S. election limited, Zelenskiy says - Reuters News Agency: Western allies are taking too long to make key decisions on military support for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Reuters in an exclusive interview in Kyiv on Monday. Clearly frustrated, he described the delivery of the aid, in particular of air defenses like the Patriot systems which Ukraine relies on heavily in its war with Russia, as "one big step forward, but before that, two steps back." "Every decision to which we, then later everyone together, comes to is late by around one year," he said, wearing his trademark khaki T-shirt and trousers and raising his voice at times. His tough remarks come at a perilous time for his forces, which are outnumbered and outgunned by Moscow's army and losing territory in the northeast and east of the country. Zelenskiy suggested ways in which allies could help more directly, including by shooting down Russian missiles over Ukrainian territory in certain circumstances. "Russians are using 300 planes on the territory of Ukraine," he said. "We need at least 120, 130 planes to resist in the sky," Zelenskiy added, referring to U.S.-designed F-16s, some of which he hopes will be used in combat soon. "You can't provide that right now? OK ... returning to the planes that you have on the territory of neighboring NATO countries: raise them up ... shoot down targets, protect civilians." "Can they do this? I'm sure that yes. Is this an attack by NATO countries, involvement? No." The Ukrainian leader also said Kyiv was negotiating with international partners to use their weapons to strike Russian military hardware at the border and further inside Russian territory. "So far, there is nothing positive," he said. The United States has resisted Ukrainian calls to use its missiles against internationally recognised Russian territory, reflecting concerns in the West about the risk of escalation while also seeking to ensure Kyiv emerges victorious. According to the 46-year-old, the battlefield situation in the northeast of the country is now under control, after Moscow's forces crossed the border and launched incursions towards the city of Kharkiv. He said that the world should not forget that Russia was also pushing hard in the east as well. Ukraine's forces are already stretched thin along the more than 1,000-km long front lines, but it would take time to prepare new recruits under a new mobilization drive for battle, Zelenskiy said. https://lnkd.in/eGWuaK4w

Biden Seeks Additional $24 Billion in Ukraine Aid Amid Rising Tensions In a move that highlights the United States’ continued commitment to supporting Ukraine amidst its ongoing conflict with Russia, President Joe Biden has secretly requested an additional $24 billion in military and financial aid. According to a report by Politico released Wednesday, this request has been made to the U.S. Congress as part of the broader government #Biden #Ukraine #US >>> Read more

Scholz denies that Germany intends to cut support for Ukraine According to the decision of the Group of Seven, Ukraine will receive a loan of 50 billion euros, the interest on which will be financed with proceeds from frozen Russian assets BERLIN, August 20/ German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has dismissed speculations Berlin plans to cut support for Ukraine. He made a statement to this effect in an interview with the Sat.1 TV channel. Extracts from the interview have been published by the DPA news agency. Scholz vowed that "nothing at all" can shatter Germany’s promises to provide support for Kiev. Also, he finds surprising the current debate over whether Berlin intends to cut military support to Kiev. Scholz recalled that the German government planned to allocate 4 billion euros in military aid to Kiev next year - more than any other European country. In addition, according to the decision of the Group of Seven, Ukraine will receive a loan of 50 billion euros, the interest on which will be financed with proceeds from frozen Russian assets. This, as Scholz noted, will allow Ukraine to purchase the necessary weapons. This instrument has not yet been agreed internationally. However, the German chancellor argues that "there is nothing unclear about it." The Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung reported on August 17 that Germany was to limit military aid to Ukraine because, according to current budget planning, no more funds are now available for this purpose. The austerity measures taken by the Federal Chancellor's Office and the Ministry of Finance are the reason. Germany is Ukraine’s second largest arms supplier after the US. Berlin has so far allocated funds for Kiev's military support and promised future spending in an amount of about 28 billion euros. Under the 2025 budget agreement, 4 billion euros will be allocated for military support for Ukraine - half of the current year's amount. The Russian authorities have repeatedly said that pumping weapons into Ukraine will not reduce Moscow’s resolve or turn the tide of the special military operation. #business #finance #financialservices

Trump seen ‘bound to fail’ if he threatens Russia with more aid to Ukraine — analyst According to Bandow, America has other interests WASHINGTON DC, January 10/ US President-elect Donald Trump would not succeed in forcing Russia to start peace talks on Ukraine by threatening to step up military aid to Kiev, Doug Bandow, former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan, said in an article for the American Conservative magazine. "Unfortunately, if, as rumored, he hopes to achieve peace by threatening Russia with a massive increase in aid to Kiev, his effort is bound to fail. More support won’t remedy Ukraine’s greatest weakness: manpower. More money would, however, betray his supporters who believed they were voting for America First, not Kiev uber alles," he wrote. "American and NATO credibility will be destroyed if Russia triumphs over Ukraine. Kiev is not part of the transatlantic alliance. The US and Europe have made no promise to defend Ukraine. From 2008 to 2022 the allies refused to admit Kiev to NATO because no one wanted to fight for it. Over the last three years the same governments refused to intervene on Ukraine’s behalf for the same reason," the analyst went on to say. According to Bandow, America has other interests. "By underwriting Kiev the US is weakening Russia on the cheap, a bargain for America," he wrote. "The Russo-Ukrainian war is expensive and dangerous. After taking the oath of office Trump will have no more important duty than addressing the conflict and ensuring America’s exit. His highest obligation is to the people of this nation," Reagan’s former assistant said. #business #finance #financialservices