Armstrong Economics’ Post

About time this bill got signed in the USA. "Finally, the passing of this bill will be a considerable morale boost for Ukrainian citizens and those on the front line. As President Zelensky noted in a tweet just after the bill pased, “our warriors on the front lines, as well as our cities and villages suffering from Russian terror, will feel it.” It is a major vote of confidence in the future of Ukraine. The passing of this bill may also prompt other nations to step up their support for Ukraine. There are multiple nations besides the U.S. that have stepped up and provided very significant amounts of aid for Ukraine, including the Baltics, Denmark, Poland, Scandanavian nations, Japan, Germany and Britain. However, some nations have been laggards, including my own country of Australia. Hopefully this bill might prompt the government in the land down under to be a little more generous in supporting the survival of Ukraine. But for now, the aim will be to get the aid bills back to the Senate and then signed by President Biden in the coming days. Then the hard work of rapid delivery of aid, and the stepping up of U.S. military industrial production, begins." https://lnkd.in/ghmke2dh

What does the German political mess mean for Ukraine? The EUROPE four billion of promised military aid for 🇺🇦 will be flowing but beyond that one can expect little from a weakened and inward looking Germany for the next months. The next government will be likely in place in early summer and a budget adopted only in late summer or early autumn. Questions remain whether any new conservative government would be willing to invest more (by taking debt) into European and Ukrainian security. That’s bad news because before Trump comes in a lot of things could have been achieved: purchases of American arms (to lock in some future U.S. support), movement on confiscation of RU assets and most importantly European preparations on a bullish Trump, who’s likely trying to force Ukraine and Russia to freeze the war and make Europe secure it. Is Europe remotely prepared to deliver credible security guarantees? Some thoughts on that I shared in a recent Voice of America interview 👇

Via Newsweek: NATO May Deploy Troops to Ukraine if Donald Trump Cuts Support: Ex-UK PM By Ellie Cook I 13.11.2024 A Former U.K. Prime Minister said that the country may need to send troops to Ukraine if newly reelected President Donald Trump reduces U.S. funding or military support for the Ukrainians. Trump staffers' purported plan to end the war in Ukraine involves freezing all conflict at the front lines. In creating an 800-mile Demilitarized Zone, the U.S. would not send troops to keep charge of it, nor pay for it. Trump has also previously criticized NATO and discussed withdrawing the U.S. from the alliance, which coordinates "the delivery of aid from allies and partners to Ukraine." Johnson said: "What I'm saying is for people watching, thinking why are we supporting the Ukrainians? It's because otherwise our collective security will be really degraded by a resurgent Russia threatening all sorts of parts of Europe." Describing this scenario, Johnson added: "We will then have to pay to send British troops to help defend Ukraine." Another British politician, member of Parliament and leader of the political party Liberal Democrats Ed Davey, also recently spoke about his concerns regarding Trump's continued support of Ukraine. Davey echoed Johnson's statements and said, "We can't simply abandon Ukraine to Putin just because Trump's in power. We've been playing a critical role, and I think we could play an even more critical role by working with European friends, bringing together European countries so we can increase the aid to Ukraine, and pay for that by seizing Russian assets properly. We've been pushing for that for some time." Davey added: "Now is the moment to do it so Europe can fill the gap. But we have got to do it quickly." https://lnkd.in/dpqRtA8x

Some #European leaders have used the #US vote on aid to #Ukraine to urge #Europe not to be complacent and not to lose momentum in stepping up efforts to produce arms and ammunition. Source: European Pravda Details: #Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas welcomed the U.S. House of Representatives' vote on the Ukraine aid bill, noting that helping Ukraine is the best way to protect ourselves. "Hope this vote encourages all allies to look through their warehouses and do more," Kallas tweeted. "But now is also the time to remember that the EU now have to increase our own production of armaments, ammunition and supplies to aid Ukraine on a long term basis," #Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström tweeted. "Tonight’s vote shows the necessity of this. We have to do our own homework as well," he added. His #Czech counterpart, Jan Lipavský, echoed this sentiment, saying: "But Europe must do more too. Our hesitation and indecision in effectively supporting Ukraine just motivate the Kremlin to further aggression that costs more lives." A decisive test for Europe will take place on Monday when 27 EU foreign ministers will meet in #Luxembourg to plan future military assistance to #Kyiv. It is planned that Ukraine's foreign and defence ministers will join the discussion remotely. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that before the weekend, European NATO allies had vowed to increase supplies of ready-made air defence systems to Ukraine. #German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, the leading official behind the latest push to send additional air defence systems to Kyiv, welcomed the US legislative move. "This is a day of optimism for Ukraine + European security," Baerbock tweeted. https://lnkd.in/dRqR2M-j

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is taking the plunge on a massive package of foreign aid that’s cleaved his conference and threatened his gavel, brushing off his detractors in a go-for-broke effort to help beleaguered allies overseas. Johnson has won early Democratic support for his multipronged strategy to provide military assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, accompanied by a grab-all package of Republican national security priorities designed to appease wary conservatives within the House GOP. He’s vowing that all four components will get separate votes before the week is out. But the plan drew an immediate backlash from hard-liners in his conference, including spending hawks who don’t want to pile billions more onto the national debt; isolationists who want to focus Washington’s resources on domestic problems; and a wide spectrum of rank-and-file Republicans who have demanded that the legislation include tougher security at the southern U.S. border — a notable exclusion from the Speaker’s policy blueprint.

Exclusive: Western aid to Ukraine too slow, risks from U.S. election limited, Zelenskiy says - Reuters News Agency: Western allies are taking too long to make key decisions on military support for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Reuters in an exclusive interview in Kyiv on Monday. Clearly frustrated, he described the delivery of the aid, in particular of air defenses like the Patriot systems which Ukraine relies on heavily in its war with Russia, as "one big step forward, but before that, two steps back." "Every decision to which we, then later everyone together, comes to is late by around one year," he said, wearing his trademark khaki T-shirt and trousers and raising his voice at times. His tough remarks come at a perilous time for his forces, which are outnumbered and outgunned by Moscow's army and losing territory in the northeast and east of the country. Zelenskiy suggested ways in which allies could help more directly, including by shooting down Russian missiles over Ukrainian territory in certain circumstances. "Russians are using 300 planes on the territory of Ukraine," he said. "We need at least 120, 130 planes to resist in the sky," Zelenskiy added, referring to U.S.-designed F-16s, some of which he hopes will be used in combat soon. "You can't provide that right now? OK ... returning to the planes that you have on the territory of neighboring NATO countries: raise them up ... shoot down targets, protect civilians." "Can they do this? I'm sure that yes. Is this an attack by NATO countries, involvement? No." The Ukrainian leader also said Kyiv was negotiating with international partners to use their weapons to strike Russian military hardware at the border and further inside Russian territory. "So far, there is nothing positive," he said. The United States has resisted Ukrainian calls to use its missiles against internationally recognised Russian territory, reflecting concerns in the West about the risk of escalation while also seeking to ensure Kyiv emerges victorious. According to the 46-year-old, the battlefield situation in the northeast of the country is now under control, after Moscow's forces crossed the border and launched incursions towards the city of Kharkiv. He said that the world should not forget that Russia was also pushing hard in the east as well. Ukraine's forces are already stretched thin along the more than 1,000-km long front lines, but it would take time to prepare new recruits under a new mobilization drive for battle, Zelenskiy said. https://lnkd.in/eGWuaK4w

Scholz denies that Germany intends to cut support for Ukraine According to the decision of the Group of Seven, Ukraine will receive a loan of 50 billion euros, the interest on which will be financed with proceeds from frozen Russian assets BERLIN, August 20/ German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has dismissed speculations Berlin plans to cut support for Ukraine. He made a statement to this effect in an interview with the Sat.1 TV channel. Extracts from the interview have been published by the DPA news agency. Scholz vowed that "nothing at all" can shatter Germany’s promises to provide support for Kiev. Also, he finds surprising the current debate over whether Berlin intends to cut military support to Kiev. Scholz recalled that the German government planned to allocate 4 billion euros in military aid to Kiev next year - more than any other European country. In addition, according to the decision of the Group of Seven, Ukraine will receive a loan of 50 billion euros, the interest on which will be financed with proceeds from frozen Russian assets. This, as Scholz noted, will allow Ukraine to purchase the necessary weapons. This instrument has not yet been agreed internationally. However, the German chancellor argues that "there is nothing unclear about it." The Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung reported on August 17 that Germany was to limit military aid to Ukraine because, according to current budget planning, no more funds are now available for this purpose. The austerity measures taken by the Federal Chancellor's Office and the Ministry of Finance are the reason. Germany is Ukraine’s second largest arms supplier after the US. Berlin has so far allocated funds for Kiev's military support and promised future spending in an amount of about 28 billion euros. Under the 2025 budget agreement, 4 billion euros will be allocated for military support for Ukraine - half of the current year's amount. The Russian authorities have repeatedly said that pumping weapons into Ukraine will not reduce Moscow’s resolve or turn the tide of the special military operation. #business #finance #financialservices

Nova Ukraine Welcomes the Approval of Critical Ukraine Aid - Read Our Statement ✍️Nova Ukraine, a California based nonprofit supporting Ukraine’s fight for liberty, thanks the U.S. Senate for the overwhelming bipartisan vote that approved new aid for Ukraine, and to President Biden for signing the bill into law. The National Security package includes both military and fiscal aid for Ukraine. Its passage marks a pivotal point in the ongoing war, as the exhausted and outnumbered Ukrainian army has been running out of weapons and ammunition, but continues to resist the all-out russian offensive in the East at the cost of many lives. The aid was delayed by seven months by disagreements and stalling. Such delays risked a catastrophe for European security that could have endangered NATO allies and put US troops in Europe in line of fire. Nova Ukraine coordinated a massive grassroots advocacy effort with other Ukrainian American nonprofits, and we applaud the strong votes for Ukraine in the House and the Senate. Significant military aid is expected to reach Ukraine within a week and help stabilize the front line. It will reassure our European allies and reconfirm the international leadership of the United States in the fight for liberty. Nova Ukraine will continue supporting the people of Ukraine in the fight against russian tyranny and aggression. We will look for new ways to hasten the historical victory over russia and prepare for the massive rebuilding effort to ensure a bright future for Ukraine. #ukraine #ukraineaid #novaukraine

Glad to share with you our latest news analysis: Congress passes Ukraine aid bill in boost to Kyiv — and Taipei — after long delay U.S. President Joe Biden’s push to provide critically needed foreign and military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan overcame a final hurdle Tuesday evening when the U.S. Senate overwhelmingly approved a long-awaited $95.3 billion legislative package that had been stalled for months. In a 79 to 18 vote, the Democratic-majority Senate approved four bills passed by the House of Representatives on Saturday, paving the way for additional military support for all three partners, particularly Ukraine, which is facing supply shortages and appears to be on the brink of losing key strongholds as Russian forces make incremental gains. The move means that the package, which had been delayed amid objections from Republican hard-liners aligned with former U.S. President Donald Trump, could be signed into law as soon as this week when it lands on the president’s desk. Biden said in a statement that he would sign the bills into law and address the American people as early as Wednesday “so we can begin sending weapons and equipment to Ukraine this week.” “The need is urgent,” Biden said. The Ukrainian military was expected to quickly put these weapons to use, employing them to strike deeper into Russian territory, putting key targets that were previously out of Kyiv’s reach — including logistics facilities and ammo dumps — within its sights. With the new ATACMS, which doubles the range of the versions Kyiv currently has to around 300 kilometers, the Ukrainians “will be able to prevent the Russians from being able to resupply so easily,” said Matthew Sussex, an associate professor at Griffith University’s Griffith Asia Institute in Australia. “I think that probably bodes well in terms of stopping their advance,” Sussex said. “The question is whether at any point the Ukrainians will be able to go on the counteroffensive again, bearing in mind that last time that happened, they were up against a pretty formidable defensive network.” Click here to read the full article https://lnkd.in/gJFD4xmz

On the topic of Aid to Ukraine. The aid is NOT cash to Ukraine it is Weapons we have in stock or weapons to be built in the United States. The Defense Industry is one of the largest components of the US Economy and Weapons are one of our largest exports. Russia attacked Ukraine because Russia is aggressive and taking over other countries is profitable if they do not put up a fight. Every time the Ukraine destroys Russian weapons those weapons may no longer be used against the US or its NATO allies or anyone else in the world. Trump does not want to aid Ukraine because he is a friend of V. Putin and fan of Russia which makes Trump a traitor, not a Patriot concerned about the US Economy or Tax Payers. Please read the following article - all of it - to understand how aid to Ukraine helps the US Economy and the World. I hope after reading this you realize you have just caught D. Trump in yet another lie. Regards, Todd W. Byars Tallahassee, Florida, USA https://lnkd.in/g2XY-Ek4