Daily Chartbook

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Lots of reasons to be optimistic, but this bullishness is a concern that could lead to some volatility in the short-term.

“We see upside for margins in [2025] as companies benefit from lower costs (as inflation cools), take advantage of efficiency gains, and exert pricing power.” HSBC Inui via TKer

"Stark difference between 2000 bubble and today's 8 bellwethers validating of bull." - Seth Golden

Years following back-to-back annual returns of 20% or more are typically characterized by a strong H1 and a weaker H2, per Fundstrat Global Advisors

"After the November PPI, forecasters have lowered their projections for core PCE inflation (the Fed's preferred gauge). They now see core PCE rising 0.13% in November, which annualizes to 1.6%. This would hold the 12-month rate at 2.8%." Nick Timiraos

"I would the downplay the spike in initial unemployment claims this morning. The seasonal adjustments are very tricky at this time of the year. The continuing claims data looks more concerning, however." Peter Berezin, BCA Research

“Typically, the P/E-expansion happens in the first year of a new bull market, at which point the baton gets passed to earnings. We are now in year 3 of the cycle and earnings are indeed doing the lifting, but so are valuations. This is somewhat unusual.” Jurrien Timmer

Investment Manager Index: "Risk appetite highest since April 2021 as investors see US equities gaining value through 2025 ... Bullishness is led by financials and tech, while defensives, energy, and real estate suffer from investor disfavor." S&P Global

"US consumers have never felt so optimistic about gains in the stock market over the next 12 months, eclipsing anything we saw around 2000." Jim Reid via Edward H.