Energized

BloombergNEF reports that average lithium-ion battery prices have fallen by 20% in 2024, with the average pack cost now $115/kWh. Battery prices have not fallen this fast since 2017! Given the current low commodity prices and oversupply in the market, as well as the increasing share of low cost LFP in the chemistry mix it is unsurprising that prices have fallen so quickly. As the team at BNEF point out, these low prices are also heavily weighted towards the Chinese market. Crucially, in the passenger EV segment average battery pack prices are now below $100/kWh, the magic number at which point EVs are considered to be at parity with ICE vehicles. Of course this parity point changes by vehicle segment, pack size and region. Well done to Evelina Stoikou for another great report!

It's not just US shale production that is a thorn in the side of OPEC as they look to do the impossible - keep prices high without losing market share.Latin America also continues to grab headlines. Guyana has been in the news ever since the discovery of the massive offshore Stabroek block. Production from the tiny nation has now reached 645,000 bpd. Argentina wants in on the party as well. Oil production in the Vaca Muerta shale region has hit 400,000 bpd, a 35% increase from last year and 400% rise from 2020. (Data from Rystad Energy linked in today's post which is linked in comments).

Europe’s LNG imports jump in November on increased cargo diversions from the US. European #LNG imports surged in November to their highest level since April, rising 19% month-on-month to 8.96 million tonnes, according to Kpler data. Non-EU countries, including the UK and Turkey, drove the increase, with combined imports jumping to 1.8 million tonnes from 0.65 million tonnes in October. This growth was driven by increased cargo diversions from Asia to #Europe, following a mid-November spike in TTF gas prices after Gazprom halted pipeline gas supplies to Austria’s OMV. A total of 31 cargoes were diverted, Kpler data show, of which 24 cargoes originated from the US, pushing US exports to Europe up by 33% to 4.17 million tonnes—the highest volume since February, when shipments reached 5.16 million tonnes. Stay ahead of the market with Kpler Insight: https://lnkd.in/dParFvuh #Kpler

OPEC Output Up Despite Headlines A Reuters survey of firms who work to estimate OPEC's true output (not the headline number) shows that the groups cumulative production was up 180,000 bpd in November to 26.51 mm bpd. The second month of increases. Libya had the largest gain followed by Nigeria and Iran. Venezuela's output has almost hit 1mm bpd, a level last seen in 2020. In Brazil, not an OPEC member but part of OPEC+, the new chief executive of Petrobras, Magda Chambriard, is reversing course on prior initiatives to shrink the energy giant. “When we look at what company we want to be in 2050, we say ‘as big as possible’ and growing at least at the same rate as Brazil. We will grow in oil and generate additional energy, including renewable sources." It continues to beg the question, why hold back now? Today's Energized post linked in the comments below:

A Good news 🥳 Amidst serious preoccupations on Europe's (and Germany) industry's health, the performance of Siemens Energy is quite remarkable. To the point of beating the "super mega star" of Wall Street: Nvidia and its spectacular rise, surfing the AI boom and associated demand of chips. The rise of Siemens Energy (or better its comeback) has a name and a surname: and that is "ELECTRIFICATION" ⚡⚡⚡ While company results show that most of its #business lines are going well (with the wind turbines one still bleeding a bit), alongside the gas turbines business (both for baseload and for flexibility needs) it is the grid technologies area that is quite impressive. Actually it would suffice look at performance of other giants in the sector - such as Hitachi Energy or GE Vernova , to have the evidence that the demand for transformers, grids and everything associated to power equipment is simply booming! And Siemens Energy not later than latest summer was announcing plans to hire more than 10,000 new employees to put its electricity grid business at the centre of an ambitious six-year growth plan. One of implications of the "Age of Electricity".... . #energy #data #future #technology #innovation

I've known Michael Liebreich for twenty years. We finally sit down on Cleaning Up Podcast to discuss the intersection of exponential technologies, energy and climate change. Enjoy!

Looking forward to chairing the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s Global Conference on Energy & AI this week. We're bringing together leaders from the tech industry, the energy sector & governments worldwide on this key topic.   The situation is clear: there's no AI without energy. Watch live on 5 Dec ➡️ https://iea.li/3VnQtVV

It is widely believed that OPEC+ is stuck. They can’t afford to bring back output that is supporting market prices, yet the same higher prices are enabling higher-cost producers (ie, US shale) to steal market share. “OPEC+ members are holding back 5.86 million barrels per day of output, or about 5.7% of global demand, in a series of steps agreed since 2022 to support the market.” Yet, when they meet on Dec. 5, expectations are that they will agree to continue to push back the eventual ending of production cuts. But what if they don’t? https://lnkd.in/gHzvjV5G #oilandgas #opec #energy

If you are interested in where the energy transition is heading and aren't following Michael Liebreich yet, make it your 2025 resolution!

In this morning's Energized: Nat gas prices are already up 20% on the week and both rhetoric and actions between Russia, Ukraine, and the US are stepping up in the wake of Biden's granting permission for long-range missile use. Plus the fascinating story behind the newest member of the SP500. https://lnkd.in/gW24WBFU