Future Sydney

The 18-30 year-old demographic in NSW remains one of the most sought after sections of the electorate when it comes to votes. It is also one of the demographics hit hardest by Housing Affordability. The Minns Govt believes that one pathway to staying in power via re-election in March 2027 is to win as many votes as it can from this contingent of voters. However, Australian politics is changing. There is a growing trend away from the major parties. This is especially the case with younger voters. (See link to Schwartz Media 7am Podcast on this voting trend, below). Indeed, the Minns Govt is a minority one. It holds power by a thin margin. A scenario that is likely only to become more common for major party governments, moving forward. Voter margins are getting harder to lock-in. This means Governments must politically de-risk complex issues. By overcommitting, the risk of not delivering is only increased – as are the risks of losing the votes of subsequently dissatisfied parts of the electorate who may feel let down. Getting to the point, though – away from Linked In (on platforms like Instagram & TikTok), there are some fascinating conversations being facilitated by young influencers on Housing Affordability. Voices here like the Betoota Advocate (who harnesses satire) and others like “Punters Politics” and “Friendly Jordies” have big followings and are turning their attention to the government’s narrative on this issue. Facilitating much of the zeitgeist on Housing Affordability amongst younger voters – the perceived shortcomings of the government’s narrative are increasingly being called out, talked about and lampooned. If the Minns Govt wants to impress these young voters and ultimately win their votes – listening to how they engage with such discussions, may well be worth it. Betoota Insta Post: https://lnkd.in/gPUyNQG4 Schwartz Media 7am Podcast: https://lnkd.in/gkpehDRf Betoota Advocate | Scwartz Media | Ruby Jones | George Megalogenis #HousingAffordabilty #HousingAffordabilityCrisis #HousingReforms #BetootaAdvocate #FutureSydney

We’re not entirely sure where Mark Speakman has been for the past year. As the housing affordability debate raged on in 2024, it seems the Opposition leader has decided to wait until New Years Day 2025 in order to seize the initiative! Only to tell us that, well – he agrees with Premier Minns. This was an incredible opportunity for Mr Speakman to stand up and challenge some of the government’s reforms. To demonstrate leadership and call for an actual strategic vision. To bring new or innovative ideas to the table. Yet, he hasn’t. He hasn’t at all. Instead, Mr Speakman seems ready to “announce” that he is prepared to effectively back-in the government’s narrative on planning reforms, blaming councils and “more supply” as the pathway to housing affordability salvation. We agree that this issue needs braver political leadership. However, this is not the sort we had in mind. https://lnkd.in/gm8tAWrZ Alexandra Smith | Michael McGowan | The Sydney Morning Herald #HousingAffordabilty #HousingAffordabilityCrisis #HousingReforms #FutureSydney

Definition of reckless: “heedless of danger or the consequences of one's actions; rash or impetuous.” We advocate for the right increased density in the right locations across Sydney, especially transport hubs. But we need these increases in density, done well – not done recklessly. Otherwise, liveability will be decreased for everyone living in the surrounding areas to where the density has been increased. At the macro level, zooming out – common sense says that if you’re planning a substantial population increase in one district, you look at the projected modelling and ensure that the children represented by those numbers will have somewhere to go to school. But this type of Strategic Planning 101 appears to be completely amiss. And at the micro level, zooming in – NSW teachers are already at crisis point and leaving the industry in droves. Increased class sizes have led to increased workloads and stress, without increased remuneration (although a 3% pay rise was negotiated in October). More kids crammed into classrooms also impacts teaching quality. More students per teacher means less time spent with each one, impacting the overall quality of a child’s education. The NSW Government’s knack for tactical planning on the run, with minimal consultation from industry experts – will bring long-term knock-on effects. Precisely why we will continue to call for evidence-based strategic planning – and for density done well, not done recklessly. https://lnkd.in/gr8sFmhw Alexandra Smith | The Sydney Morning Herald | Zoe Baker | Felicity Wilson MP | Tim James | Kylea Tink #HousingAffordabilty #HousingAffordabilityCrisis #HousingReforms #Schools #densitydonewell

It’s been a fascinating 6 weeks for Future Sydney. When we started posting in mid-November, we weren’t sure we’d even get a “like”. However, since then, our posts have had over 100,000 views. We believe this is validation of our initial assumption: that Sydney wants a broader range of voices and a richer conversation on housing affordability. Our team are all Sydneysiders. We care deeply about this city we call home. So, we feel an obligation to continue calling for higher quality outcomes for Sydney in 2025. In the meantime – thank you so much for your support, thus far. Over the next few weeks, we’ll be sharing some interesting summer reads on the housing affordability issue. If you have any relevant suggestions – please feel free to send them over to us with a quick description on why you feel it’s pertinent. We’ll try to give it a share. Finally, we hope you enjoy your time off with family and friends – and here’s to a fulfilling 2025. The Future Sydney Team #HousingAffordability #FutureSydney

We need full electrification of all new homes and incentives to shift existing homes towards electrification. Reduce emissions, save money and improve health outcomes. The NSW Government needs to show leadership and pursue this worthy housing reform. We'll have a lot more to say on this topic in 2025. Tim Forcey Planning Institute of Australia Australian Institute of Architects Green Building Council of Australia

Right decision by the NSW Land & Environment Court and we agree with the Commissioner’s rationale (along with his taste in music). With building material & resource costs soaring, post Covid – developers and builders have said that the luxury apartment market is one segment where they can still make decent margins. However, Sydney is smack bang in the midst of a housing affordability crisis. Therefore, surely any development in Sydney that: 1. Delivers a net dwelling loss 2. Replaces an existing, more-affordable block with a new, luxury one – Is the very antithesis of “more supply” that improves affordability? Furthermore, the Commissioner's clear-cut statements that housing affordability must be the #1 priority in all DA decision-making – are in stark contrast to the NSW Govt's silence and inaction on this growing luxury apartment trend (especially in Sydney's East). With their newly-corralled, state-wide planning powers – the NSW Govt could easily put it’s money where its mouth is on specific developments and save all the impacted levels of bureaucracy a lot of time and money. But so far, we’ve heard nothing. SMH: https://lnkd.in/gwnZ5uUg AFR: https://lnkd.in/gGS4B6iu Michaela Whitbourn / Anthony Segaert / The Sydney Morning Herald / Michael Bleby / The Australian Financial Review / James Hutton / Peter Walsh / Land & Environment Court of NSW #Housingaffordabilty #HousingAffordabilityCrisis #HousingReforms #luxuryapartments #LandAndEnvironmentCourtofNSW #cityofsydney #rollingstones #FutureSydney

Our thoughts on the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority (HDA) announcement haven’t changed from the last time the government announced the same thing only four weeks ago. The NSW Government is in the process of the largest government-sanctioned wealth transfer in the history of the Commonwealth with their mass upzoning policies of the TOD and Low and Mid Rise programs. Big windfall gains to existing landowners with no meaningful value capture, pitiable (or non-existent) affordable housing requirements and no detailed infrastructure plans. But despite creating decades worth of housing capacity ready to be enacted upon, the latest NSW Government announcement would allow developers to further bypass our established strategic framework to rezone and approve development applications simultaneously. This isn't about gentle density and well-located homes. This new policy is reminiscent of the former Labor Government's controversial Part 3A process. The fact that the government is referring to it as an approvals authority, rather than an assessment body, creates the impression that this will be a rubber stamping process for ad hoc, speculative development that doesn't align with, or are contradictory to, the NSW Government's strategic vision. Another 'reform' being made in the name of the housing crisis - despite our current housing lull being driven by a viability crisis where less than 50% of approved DAs for apartments are proceeding to construction certificate. It further diminishes trust in our planning system. It creates the perception that money, power and rent-seeking is more important to city-making than a strategic vision and coordinated infrastructure plan. We're concerned you could end up with perverse outcomes, like the Star Casino proposal, which was borne out of a similar process. More here: https://lnkd.in/gqfE2gh2 Planning Institute of Australia NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure Paul Scully Kiersten Fishburn Scott Farlow John Brockhoff Local Government NSW Sue Weatherley Australian Institute of Architects Adam Haddow #planning #cities #housing

As clear as mud – the perception of young voters when trying to understand the strategic goals of the housing affordability policies and reforms. Federal Housing Minister Claire O’Neil’s interview on Triple J’s Hack (a youth network) went viral two weeks ago, with over 1-million views. O’Neil’s statement that the government does NOT want property prices to come down – shocked many already disillusioned young voters in desperate need of affordability respite. (Insta & full vid below) The minister’s sentiment is understandable. Australia’s overall economic health is partially, inextricably bound up with housing. If prices substantially drop, this has other big knock-on effects to our wider economy. (Revised) Politically too: approximately 2/3 of voters own their own home. It would be political suicide for any government to poke the bear of this massive voter cohort by bringing in policies that tear property prices down. But – it’s a lack of clarity that is the big problem here. Both at the Federal-level and in NSW. The end goals of the housing affordability reforms are just not clear. They are not clear at all. Comments in the Instagram post below reveal the disappointed disconnection between what young voters thought they were getting vs. the housing minister’s statement. Undoubtedly – governments are forced to walk a delicate, tight-rope narrative on this issue. After all, gee whiz, haven’t we seen all sorts of policy announcement acrobatics in NSW already!? But, an increasingly obvious lack of clarity on the end goals is leading to a perilous accumulation of political hostages to fortune (um, aka: karma!) – which appears to backfire whenever the smokescreen clears. The follow-up “explainer” posted by Hack to this same audience is indicative of this. It’s also a brilliant listen. Post Note: please take the oversupply (!) of figures of speech in this post with a grain of salt… but holidays loom. Clare O'Neil | Paul Scully | Dave Marchese | Ian Verrander | Triple J - ABC Instagram: https://lnkd.in/g5fJbWm9 Full Interview: https://lnkd.in/g_xeQgTs Follow-up “explainer” by Hack, this week: https://lnkd.in/g_Gu6G4X #HousingAffordabilty #HousingAffordabilityCrisis #HousingReforms #TripleJ #FutureSydney

Last week, protections for NSW apartment buyers got better – a welcome decision by the High Court (link below / may be paywalled). As we commented on the weekend – new apartment defects and instances of shoddy craftsmanship have decimated the brand value of the new apartment sector. This has led to buyer trust nosediving, consequently making it harder for the industry to sell new dwellings. This is prevalent in Melbourne too, where buyers are seemingly favouring existing apartment purchases over new. Rebuilding consumer trust is paramount. Especially because new apartments are the core feature of the NSW Govt’s solution to improving housing affordability. Story: https://lnkd.in/gQUtk6gf Michael Bleby | The Australian Financial Review #HousingAffordabilty #HousingAffordabilityCrisis #Defects #ApartmentDefects #FutureSydney

The amount of dwellings approved by NSW councils, but still not commenced (link below). In 2024 – the NSW Govt has railed against the inefficiency of local councils on development applications (DAs). But the Govt has been silent on the other side of the equation – developments commenced, after being approved. As part of its crusade, the NSW Govt created a new tool – the council league table (link below). The Govt reckons this table is to monitor DA approval times and to call out the slow coaches. Subsequently, over the weekend – David Chandler posted some reflections on his time as the NSW Building Commissioner (link below). One of his recommendations was to monitor the start and completions of developments, after being approved. We think this is a brilliant idea and have called for it in previous posts. In 2025 – we hope this can be explored, so that the debate ledger on the approval process attains more balance. Final note: we support the review and optimisation of development processes. Corporates dedicate entire teams to perpetual process improvement and it works. However, such process optimisation must be conducted right across the development delivery chain. Not just the convenient and politically-expedient parts. David Chandler’s Post: https://lnkd.in/gC2kexNj SMH article: https://lnkd.in/gxg3RM6v Govt’s League Table: https://lnkd.in/gaAiZrWe David Chandler OAM | Building Commission NSW | Max Maddison | The Sydney Morning Herald #HousingAffordabilty #HousingAffordabilityCrisis #HousingReforms #NSWBuildingCommissioner #FutureSydney