Friday Spicy 🌶️ - Comparing sizes... its not the size of the fleet but whether you can refit the hit.
China's Navy will stand at about about 395 ships and 2 million tons by 2025. For comparison's sake the US Navy is currently at about 300 combat vessels and 4.5 million tons.
The US has fewer combat ships but they are on average larger and more capable. However, when it comes to merchant marine vessels, the ships that will be absolutely critical to logistics/supply in any conflict, China possesses about 8300 ships compared to the US's 3500, and here China's fleet is both vastly more numerous and larger on average.
All that said, the most concerning comparison isn't fleet size, it is ship building and repairing capacity where China has a 230X advantage over the United States. No you aren't reading that incorrectly. Expressed as a percentage just so we are absolutely clear... they have a 23,000% advantage.
An Arleigh Burke destroyer takes the US 4 years to build on average. If, in this highly simplified exampled, we assumed that destroyer production were representative of shipbuilding capacity overall, then if the US's peak capacity were to build or repair 1 destroyer a year, China could build or repair 230. (Last year China added 30 surface combatants to their fleet).
This means that in any protracted conflict, the US Navy will essentially be limited to the current fleet. Every lost ship is a hole in the force that won't be filled before the conflict's conclusion whereas China has the capacity to completely replace their fleet over an operationally relevent time span.
The bottom line is that while the US Navy can certainly deter minor skirmishes and conflicts given the current fleet, China can see the disparity in manufacturing and repair capacity and is likely less dettered from an all out protracted conflict, where their superior manufacturing capacity will come to bear.
Current capability/forces deter skirmishes but it is manufacturing capacity that deters all out protracted conflict.
Wiz bang defense technology is great but where we really need the billions (trillions) focused is on manufacturing and supply chains. Capability * Capacity = success.
(Anyone working on capital ship building or ship repair & refit let us know).
*big open question, where does Hellscape fit into this? Is it really a thing? Is the ambiguity it creates a real deterrent? https://lnkd.in/gDxXVtRX