Marsoft Inc.

“𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 & 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀” 𝗮𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 𝗔𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗺𝘆 Ryan Uljua, CAIA gave a presentation at the Marine Money Academy held in conjunction with the 2024 Ship Finance Forum in New York last week, where he engaged with a dynamic audience of young professionals. Ryan’s presentation, “Investment Truths in Shipping & Current Market Trends” sparked a lively discussion, beginning with an interactive exploration of shipping market cycles. He invited participants, including young professionals such as lawyers and graduate students, to share their views on where the shipping cycle currently stands. By the end of the presentation, after exploring key market data and indicators, participants gained fresh insights into the factors driving the cycle. Geopolitics and Market Disruptions A significant portion of Ryan’s talk focused on the impact of geopolitics on shipping over the past year, spotlighting the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. He marked the one-year anniversary of the hijacking of the Galaxy Leader and shared insights into Marsoft's Q4 2024 Base Case scenario, including the expectation that diversions in the region could continue through 2028 – longer than current market consensus. Shifting Dynamics in Shipbuilding Ryan also examined structural shifts in the global shipbuilding market since the last major cyclical peak in 2007. He discussed how changes in market share among shipbuilding nations – led by China – could shape newbuilding prices in the coming years, offering a glimpse into potential long-term trends. *** The Marsoft Q4 2024 Release is due out shortly – get in touch for more information on Marsoft’s view of the shipping markets. 𝑃ℎ𝑜𝑡𝑜: 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑀𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑦

🚢 Ryan Uljua to Speak at Marine Money New York! We're excited to share that Ryan Uljua, CAIA, Project Lead for Markets & Systems at Marsoft, will be presenting at the Marine Money Ship Finance Academy in New York tomorrow, September 21. In his session, "Investment Truths in Shipping & Current Market Trends," Ryan will dive into: 📊 The critical role of timing and pricing in shipping cycles and returns 🌍 Key supply, demand, and geopolitical factors driving markets today 🌱 Decarbonization challenges and the role of carbon markets in shipping Get ready for actionable insights into the trends shaping the future of shipping investments. #Marsoft #MarineMoney #ShippingFinance #Decarbonization #MarketTrends #CarbonMarkets

Shipowners: Act Now to Unlock Five Years of Carbon Credit Revenues! 🚢 If you’ve installed retrofits in your fleet during the second half of 2022, there's a time-sensitive opportunity to enroll in Marsoft's GreenScreen Program! Through the program, your fleet can earn substantial carbon credit revenues at no upfront cost – all the while advancing sustainability goals and enhancing your vessel’s environmental impact. But don't wait! To include any H2 2022 retrofits, enrollment must be completed soon, as the Gold Standard only allows a two-year look-back period. Retrofits completed in H1 2023 must also be registered by the end of this year. 💡 Why enroll? 🔹Five years of carbon credit revenue for participating vessels 🔹Zero upfront costs 🔹Boost your fleet’s green credentials with the Gold Standard certification 🔹Verified annual reporting of fuel and CO2 savings If you're already a Marsoft client, or if you’d like to explore this valuable opportunity further, get in touch with us directly via our website or call us. Let’s keep moving forward together towards a more sustainable future for shipping! 🌍

US Election Consequences 𝑈𝑆 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑠 𝑑𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑢𝑟 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑠. 𝑀𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑙𝑑 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑢𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑠𝑡 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚 𝑇𝑟𝑢𝑚𝑝 𝑎𝑑𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛. 𝐽𝑎𝑛 𝐹𝑟𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑟 𝐽𝑒𝑛𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑘𝑒 𝑡𝑜 Arlie Sterling 𝑡𝑜 𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑓𝑡’𝑠 𝑣𝑖𝑒𝑤𝑠. Will trade suffer in the second Trump administration? Probably not, if history is a guide. Setting aside COVID-distorted 2020, trade grew by 11% during Trump’s first term and, by our estimate, 13% under the Biden administration. Trump has said he will impose significant tariffs on all US imports and particularly those from China – won’t that be bad for trade? Trump has threatened a “universal” 10% - 20% tariff on imports and up to a 60% tariff on imports from China. Tariffs at that scale and scope would have dramatic consequences for trade. However, if the first Trump administration is a guide, we may see tariffs focused in certain sectors or countries, with a more punitive approach, and allies will be encouraged to “buy America” if they want to stay under the American defense umbrella. What about Trump’s climate policies? There is a real concern that the US may once again withdraw from the Paris accords and block any global carbon tax initiative, such as those under consideration at the IMO. A robust CBAM mechanism will have to be in place for the EU to be able to maintain its climate initiatives in the absence of a global carbon tax – a policy that will likely put a damper on trade. Will the second Trump administration restore safe passage in the Red Sea? Trump has made it clear that he wants to reduce US engagement in conflicts around the world. The Houthi attacks are unlikely to be strategic priorities for his second administration. But Israel and Iran are clearly strategic priorities, and our view is that the risk of escalation involving Iran has increased as a result of recent events, including the election. The Houthi attacks are an ancillary issue within this broader conflict and would likely cease with a resolution (one way or another) of the underlying tensions. How has Marsoft’s changed its view of the prospects for the shipping markets of Trump’s victory? Our Base Case view is that the primary impact of Trump’s trade policies will be to shift the patterns of trade, with relatively small impact on total trade. We are concerned, however, that Trump’s policies increase the medium-term threat of a global macro downturn (although we note that the equities markets do not seem to share that concern). We are putting heavier weight on our Low Case in risk discussions with our clients. Look for more details of our updated market outlook and risk assessment in our reports to be published in the next weeks.

𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝘽𝙚𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝘾𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙖𝙥𝙨𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙇𝙉𝙂 𝙎𝙥𝙤𝙩 𝘾𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙍𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨? Jan Fraser Jenkins met with Marsoft’s LNG shipping market team, Hauke Kite-Powell and Ryan Uljua, to get an update on their view of recent market developments. This interview has been condensed for clarity. 𝐇𝐚𝐮𝐤𝐞, 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐟𝐭’𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐭 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐰 $𝟓𝟎,𝟎𝟎𝟎/𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒/𝟐𝟓 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐲. 𝐍𝐨𝐰 𝐰𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐰 $𝟑𝟎,𝟎𝟎𝟎/𝐝𝐚𝐲. 𝐂𝐚𝐧 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐛𝐚𝐝? In all fairness Jan, our Base Case called for rates to average around $75,000 this winter season so the recent decline in rates – and I can confirm those sub-30 rates – does represent a fundamental change in market conditions, with market instead developing more along Marsoft’s Low Case trajectory so far this quarter. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐩𝐬𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬? 𝐈𝐬 𝐢𝐭 𝐚 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭- 𝐨𝐫 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐩𝐡𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐧? Asian demand weakness is the key. European import demand has been soft, as expected, but Asian demand growth has slowed substantially. In China the lower demand may be attributable to the recent restructuring of the domestic natural gas industry. We will be reporting on these developments in our upcoming market report. 𝐈𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐲𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐞𝐥𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐩𝐮𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧? 𝐖𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐭 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐯𝐲 𝐋𝐍𝐆𝐂 𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 – 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐰? Deliveries have accelerated steadily, with 3.1m cbm added to the fleet in Q3, and 4m cbm expected this quarter – double the quarterly rate from a year ago – which is putting substantial pressure on rates, says Ryan Uljua. Still, we see increasing LNG liquefaction capacity and favorable pricing dynamics as supporting rapid demand growth so those ships should be absorbed in the long-term. However, there’s a timing mismatch, as fresh vessel capacity is entering the market faster than LNG liquefaction projects can come online. 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐤𝐬 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐦𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬! 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐰𝐞 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐞𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐟𝐭’𝐬 𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐮𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞? We will release the updated outlook before Thanksgiving in the United States – in the next four weeks – and look forward to discussing with our clients shortly thereafter.

𝙂𝙤𝙡𝙙 𝙎𝙩𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙖𝙧𝙙 𝘿𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨 𝙇𝙤𝙤𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙜 Marsoft’s GreenScreen program has been in the headlines recently – highlighted at ASBA 2024 in a feature, "A Cabana full of Carbon Credits" – Jan Fraser Jenkins reached out to Arlie Sterling to get the latest news. This interview has been condensed for clarity. 𝐀𝐫𝐥𝐢𝐞, 𝐰𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐰 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐲 𝐞𝐱𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐓𝐖 𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐮𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐮𝐬 𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭?  GreenScreen enrollment continues to grow fast. In the last few weeks we’ve added 50 more ships to the fleet. GreenScreen owners are investing in efficiency improvements that will yield nearly 2 million tonnes in reduced CO2 emissions and will earn more than $11 million from GreenScreen carbon credit issuance to help finance those investments. 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐞𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐠𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐞𝐧𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐰? Well, as you know we’ve been at this for awhile now. We are seeing a critical mass of owners committing to the program – that makes a big difference. And owners who enrolled last year have begun planning for next year’s retrofits and want to build GreenScreen into their plans. The Gold Standard deadlines are also playing an important role. 𝐖𝐡𝐨 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐝𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐨 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐧𝐒𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐞𝐧𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭? The Gold Standard is the carbon registry that reviews the progress made in terms of CO2 emissions reduction and issues the carbon credits. Once Gold Standard issues the credits they will be bought by corporations, governments, and NGOs who want to reflect the emissions reduction in their stakeholder reports. 𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬? The Gold Standard sets a rigorous deadline for accepting projects; we have to work within that deadline to maximize the cash and minimize the delays for our clients. That means that to be eligible for GreenScreen carbon credits: ·       Ships with retrofits completed in H2 2022 must be enrolled by December 10, and ·       Ships with retrofits completed in H1 2023 must be enrolled by 10 January 2025. We want to be sure that nobody misses out on the opportunity to cash in while doing good! #Decarbonization #CarbonCredits

🌍 Marsoft's Green Initiatives Pay Off in Carbon Credits 🌱 We're excited to share that Marsoft's innovative carbon credit program is featured in today's TradeWinds. Despite initial concerns, the European Union's Emissions Trading System (ETS) has actually boosted shipowner interest in our emissions-reducing solutions. With 230 vessels now enrolled and over $11M in credits set to flow back to shipowners, the future of sustainable shipping looks promising. Together with ClimeCo, we’re helping the industry reduce emissions and create value for shipowners. Check out the full article here (subscription required): https://lnkd.in/dUSvRWDw? #Sustainability #CarbonCredits #Shipping

𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬: 𝐎𝐟 𝐠𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬, 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞-𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐠𝐨𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 by Costas Bardjis   Increasingly, it seems that unanticipated events are becoming the norm in shipping. Placing the words “unanticipated” and “norm” together in the same sentence sounds like an oxymoron.   But when looking back over the last five years, one can easily mark three such events (the so called “black swan” events) which helped shape shipping fortunes: the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the Red Sea crisis have all been unexpected events which have impacted shipping market developments to a greater or lesser degree. They have affected supply chains, upset trade patterns, and upended vessel demand/supply fundamentals. At times, some have spoken of shipping super-cycles and of new market norms due to prevailing geopolitical uncertainty. 🔗 Continue reading the comment on our website: https://lnkd.in/d4pi6RaR

I'm happy to be joining a panel at the SocSea conference (9th and 10th September), the UK maritime conference that explores net zero, society and the sea. Marsoft Inc. welcomes the opportunity to talk about alternative finance options for retrofits that reduce CO2 emissions, and to discuss with Louisa Cilenti from pH3 Capital and Julia Manning from EBRD how to meet portfolio goals while contributing to a greener world. Contact me if you want to join the event! #SocSea24

We are excited to attend #SOCSEA24 in London where Belinda Adye will be a panelist. Will you be joining us? All Marsoft clients may contact us to get access to a discounted attendance: info [a] marsoft.com - don't miss out!