Auto industry execs, fasten your seatbelts. If President-elect Donald Trump and his team repeal the $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs, as reported, the fallout will be massive.
The Biden administration’s signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, introduced the $7,500 EV tax credit for consumer vehicles and numerous others for commercial EVs and battery production, among other things.
Since the law’s inception in 2022, EV sales have taken off. In 2023, the first full year of the credit, EV sales jumped 46% year over year to 1.19 million, compared to 813,000 in 2022, according to Cox’s Kelly Blue Book.
Last month in a new report dubbed “The Effects of ‘Buy American’: Electric Vehicles and the Inflation Reduction Act, researchers Joseph Shapiro, Hunt Allcott, and Felix Tintelnot quantified the tax credit effect.
After constructing a model and running a simulation, the report found that EV sales in the US would drop 27% if the federal EV tax credit were removed, compared to a scenario with the EV tax credit in place. The report found this would lead to EV registrations falling to 867,000 EVs from 1.184 million with the tax credit in place — or 317,000 fewer EVs.
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