Acuité Ratings & Research Limited’s Post

Growth in India's industrial production moderated slightly to 3.8% YoY in Jan'24 from 4.2% in Dec'23. Says Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist and Head – Research, Acuité Ratings & Research Limited, "There has been a slight moderation in industrial growth in Jan'24. Given the less favourable base factor, this was in line with our expectations. The cumulative growth in industrial output in the ten-month Apr-Jan'24 period remains healthy at 5.9%. While manufacturing output slowed down somewhat to 3.2% YoY during the month, the annualized growth is expected to be around 5.5% for FY24. Sequentially, the output figures look encouraging with overall IIP MoM at 0.6%, being largely driven by a step up in mining activity (mainly coal) and higher power demand. While manufacturing has the dominant share in IIP, the solid growth in mining and electricity is providing the momentum to IIP. In terms of use based categories, infrastructure and capital goods have notched up output growth of 10.0% and 6.9% in the current year (Apr-Jan), driven by the continuing public capital investments. As in the previous months, consumer goods output has been fragile with 3.7% YoY growth in Jan'24 and 3.6% YoY in the Apr-Jan period; consumer durables remain a laggard in that category compared to FMCG. Overall, FY24 is likely to be one of the best years for industrial activity with IIP growth forecast at 5.8% YoY on the back of 5.3% growth in the previous year. This will be the highest growth print for IIP over the last ten years excluding FY22, the year just after the outbreak of Covid. For FY25, we however, expect industrial growth to moderate to 4.5%-5.5%." Download the complete report here: https://lnkd.in/d_6DQnPu Sankar Chakraborti #IIP #economy #analysis #industry

India’s industrial production saw a notable recovery, growing by 3.1% in September, up from a contraction of 0.1% in August, according to the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation(MOSPI). This growth surpasses economist forecasts of 2.5%, marking a positive shift after August’s first industrial output decline in nearly two years. Manufacturing output surged 3.9% year-on-year in September, while electricity generation rose by 0.5% and mining activity increased by 0.2%. However, these rates reflect a moderation compared to last year’s higher growth in these sectors. During the April-September period, industrial production expanded by 4%, lower than the 6.2% growth recorded in the same period last year. According to the Use-based classification, growth was observed across categories: primary goods (1.8%), capital goods (2.8%), intermediate goods (4.2%), infrastructure/construction goods (3.3%), consumer durables (6.5%), and consumer non-durables (2.0%). Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, noted a broad-based improvement across segments, though October’s growth may face a challenging base effect. #IndiaEconomy #IndustrialGrowth #Manufacturing #IIP #EconomicRecovery #ConsumerDurables #IndiaManufacturing #MiningSector #ElectricityProduction #Growth #TechNews #Technology #Innovation #AditiNayar Source - The Economic Times

India’s industrial activity clocked a mild improvement with an annualized growth print of 3.5% in Oct'24 vs. 3.1% in Sep'24.    Says Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Acuité Ratings & Research Limited: “Industrial production in October 2024 showed a slight improvement from September, with moderate upticks in all sectors, manufacturing, mining as well as electricity. However, growth is much slower than in October 2023, which saw an uptick of 11.9% and highlights the impact of the base factor. The use-based classification also shows positive growth, with consumer durables dipping slightly compared to last month (5.9% vs 6.5%) but still leading growth alongside infrastructure goods (4.0%).For the April-Oct 2024 period, industrial output grew by 4.0%, albeit materially weaker than the 7.0% growth seen during the same period.    We expect IIP growth to pick up in H2FY25 on the back of an improvement in consumer demand, supported by the wedding season and the kharif harvest. Further, government spending particularly on capital expenditure is also likely to see a rapid uptick over the next few months. Nevertheless, the annualized growth in IIP for FY25 is set to slow down to around 4.5% given the weaker growth in H1.”   Download our comprehensive analysis here: https://lnkd.in/d-UtgTBx    Sankar Chakraborti #IIP #economy #India

Growth in India's industrial production (IIP) eased to a 5-month low of 4.2% YoY in June'24 from 6.2% YoY in May'24 (revised up from 5.9%). The headline growth was lower than market expectations pegged at 5.5%. Says Suman Chowdhury, our Executive Director and Chief Economist: "Expectedly, the IIP growth has slowed down in Jun'24; one of the key factors is the decline in manufacturing sector growth to 2.6% from 4.6% in the previous month. Slowdown of manufacturing and construction activity due to excessive summer heat conditions in many parts of the country in June apart from inventory rationalization in some sectors such as auto has impacted industrial output. Consumer non-durables output has again slipped to contraction mode at -1.4% in Jun'24 vs 2.3% in May'24, highlighting that the demand from the rural sector is not yet robust. Given the lower industrial output in the first quarter along with lower than expected corporate profitability, weaker GVA growth in the manufacturing sector may pull down GDP growth in Q1FY25 to below 7.0%. However, an expectation of a strong revival in rural demand on the back of a favourable monsoon and better export prospects in the second half of the year may enhance IIP growth in the subsequent quarters." Download the report here: https://lnkd.in/gJW3u5jD Sankar Chakraborti #IIP #economy #India

Indian Inc face slowest revenue growth in 16 Quarters, Q2 Estimates at 5-7% YoY . . The slowdown is attributed to the stagnant performance in the construction sector, which accounts for 20 % of the total India Inc’s revenue. Revenue of industrial commodities, investment and construction-linked sectors, collectively accounting for 38 % of our sample set, grew only 1 % weighing down overall performance. In the investment sector, the power segment, which accounts for about 70% of revenue, grew by only 1% due to reduced power demand from above-normal monsoons. Steel revenue decreased by 2-3% due to price drops driven by cheap Chinese imports. The cement sector’s revenue growth also slipped 2-3% on account of sluggish government spending after the Lok Sabha elections among other reasons. The agriculture sector was impacted due to fall in raw material prices. The exports segment grew by around 5%, within which, the pharmaceutical sector continued to perform strongly and recorded an 11% revenue growth. Consumer discretionary, staple products and services recorded 15% revenue growth. Within this, two-wheeler players saw 15-16% revenue growth due to rural recovery. The telecom services revenue increased 12-13% due to tariff hikes across technologies. #india #business #industry #finance

According to a recent report by the Reserve Bank of India, India has provisionally created 46.7 million (4.67 Cr)jobs in the fiscal year 2023/24, bringing the total employment in the country to 643.3 million (64.33 Cr). This marks a significant growth in employment as the country's employment growth rate increased to 6% in fiscal 2024 versus 3.2% in the previous Fiscal year. Expect 100Cr working age (18 - 64 ) population by 2030. Productivity Figures - Average labour FY 23. Lower productivity Agriculture - Rs 90000.00 Construction - Rs 175000.00 Trade - Rs 248000.00 Transport - Rs 265000.00 Higher Productivity Refining - Rs 56 Lakhs Finance - Rs 13.50 Lakhs Post and Telecommunication - Rs 13.50 Lakhs Mining, Chemicals and Electricity Rs 13 -16 Lakhs . Source : RBI KLEMS.

🚀 February 2024 Business Recap: India's Economic Landscape 1. Core Industries Boom:Eight Core Industries surge by 3.8% in December 2023, driving 40.27% of the Index of Industrial Production. 2. Fiscal Discipline: Fiscal deficit aims at 5.1% of GDP in 2024-25, aligning with a path to reach below 4.5% by 2025-26. 3. Sugar Blues: Indian sugar production estimates a 10% dip to 33.05 million tonnes in 2023-24, led by lower output in Maharashtra and Karnataka. 4. ISO Milestone: Haldia Petrochemicals achieves ISO 27001:2022 certification, emphasizing robust information security governance. 5. Coal Power: Coal Ministry's production hits 99.73 million tonnes in January 2024, a robust 10.3% YoY growth. 6. HPCL's Rajasthan Refinery: Hindustan Petroleum plans to roll out commercial production from its Rs 73,000-crore Rajasthan refinery by January 2025. 7. Tata's Triumph: Tata Group crosses Rs 30 lakh crore market cap, claiming the top spot among Indian conglomerates. 8. EPFO Interest Soars: Employees Provident Fund Organization announces a three-year high interest rate of 8.25% for 2023-24. 9. Inflation Insights: Wholesale Price Index records a 0.27% YoY inflation rate in January 2024, driven by food, machinery, and equipment. 10. BharatNet Boost: BSNL initiates a Rs 65,000-crore tender for BharatNet Phase-3, set to enhance rural connectivity. 11. Tata's Karnataka Ventures: Air India and TASL plan Rs 2,300 crore investment in Karnataka, spanning MRO facility, gun manufacturing, and aerospace R&D. 12. Mineral Marvel: December 2023 witnesses a 5.1% rise in India's mineral production, showcasing positive growth in various minerals. 13. IGL's Green Move: Indraprastha Gas plans 19 CBG plants in Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, contributing to sustainable energy. 14. Oilfield Outlook: India's oilfield capex to shrink by one-fifth by 2030, impacting domestic oil production, warns IEA. #EconomicRecap #IndiaBusiness #February2024 📈🌐

🚀 India’s Industrial Output Bounces Back! A Positive Turn for Growth! 🇮🇳 After a contraction of 0.1% in August, the latest data shows India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has rebounded to a 3.1% growth in September! 🌱 Here’s what led the charge: ✅ Manufacturing output surged by 3.9%, indicating strong momentum. ⚡️ Electricity generation rose by 0.5%, a modest yet steady increase. ⛏️ Mining activity showed slight improvement, up by 0.2%. Sector-wise growth highlights: • Primary Goods: +1.8% • Capital Goods: +2.8% • Intermediate Goods: +4.2% • Infrastructure/Construction Goods: +3.3% • Consumer Durables: A remarkable 6.5% surge 💥 • Consumer Non-durables: Up 2.0% The festive season and a broad-based recovery are driving this positive shift, despite an unfavourable base from last year. 📈 According to Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, we can expect 3.0-4.0% YoY growth in October. 🔥The industrial sector is showing signs of resilience, and this rebound reflects renewed consumer demand and stronger manufacturing activity. While challenges remain, the momentum is a promising sign for the upcoming months. Let’s stay optimistic and keep building! 💪🏗️ #IndustrialGrowth #Manufacturing #EconomicRecovery #IndiaEconomy #Leadership business Outlook Source ET

#iip #industrialgrowth #india #indianeconomy #macroeconomy Growth in India's industrial output accelerated to 5.7 percent in February, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on April 12. At 5.7 percent, the latest industrial growth figure as per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is higher from the January 2023 figure of 3.8 percent. Read on

India grew at 8.2% in FY2024, surpassing the expected 8%. Notably, Q3 saw 8.6% growth, and Q4 achieved 7.5%, far exceeding the forecast of below 6%. Key drivers included private consumption and investment. The primary sector (agriculture and mining) grew 2.1%, with agriculture at 1.4% and mining at 7.4%. The secondary sector (manufacturing, electricity, construction) grew 9.7%, with manufacturing and construction at 9.9% and electricity at 7.5%. As PM Modi seeks a third term, India's economic progress remains a central theme. #Indiastory #Apnatimeaayega #Growth #GDP