Alex Siow’s Post

🔍 Potential Impact on US LNG Exports Amid Election Uncertainty The future of US LNG exports may hinge on the upcoming election, as policy directions from both parties reveal stark contrasts that could reshape the industry. A Trump victory might bring a 60% tariff on Chinese imports—potentially raising trade risks for the booming US LNG sector despite his commitment to fast-track energy permits. Analysts warn that this move could backfire by prompting China to avoid new LNG contracts with the US, instead re-exporting supplies to bypass the tariff. 📈 US LNG exports reached record highs last year, doubling volumes from just four years ago and securing billions in trade. Yet, with Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign not clarifying its stance on current permit freezes, concerns linger over possible regulatory delays under a continued Democratic administration. While Harris is viewed as a potential ally by environmental groups, this could mean obstacles for new LNG projects. As the world’s largest LNG exporter, the US stands at a crossroads. Industry leaders like Cheniere Energy, Inc. Energy are preparing for a regulatory shift no matter the outcome. Meanwhile, with natural gas demand in key states rising sharply due to export needs, stakeholders are closely watching how energy policy—whether tariff-driven investment or regulatory slowdowns—will shape the future of US LNG on the global stage. Credit - LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) #LNG #Energy #USElections #TradePolicy #NaturalGas #Gas #Power

European LNG Imports Hit Record High in 2024: What This Means for 2025? It appears that 2025 could be a critical year for Europe, as the region has already seen a 20% reduction in gas demand over the past two years, due to the increase of renewable energy capacity and energy efficiency initiatives. Shift in consumption patterns could cause Europe to be in a situation of regasification overcapacity by end of the decade as the likely scenario will be the global LNG market being oversupplied. Even though there were sanctions imposed on Russia, LNG imports kept on increasing, thought the increase geopolitical tensions could lead to a significant decrease in the EU's imports eventually making the region's LNG market even more unstable. Europe is undergoing a duality in the energy sector, between ensuring energy security and meeting their climate goals. Despite the fact that LNG might look like a feasible transition in the short run, it should not prevent the region from moving ahead with investments in long-term carbon footprint reduction, as the key to this energy transition is diversification. What will be the impact we will see this 2025? Potentially redesigning energy strategies considering gas reserves and looking for energy security and affordability as a priority in Europe. It is very important to consider that energy diplomacy and geopolitics, as in the case of the Ukraine war, will be the ones reshaping the regions targets. In conclusion, while Europe has advanced greatly in the energy transition, the road towards sustainability still has to take place, which means that there is an imperative need to balance between sustainability and urgent needs. The fact that LNG imports have reached a record high might be a turning point for the region to rethink its energy strategies. #EnergyTransition #LNG #Geopolitics #Sustainability #EnergySecurity

US complicates Europe’s attempts to give up Russian gas — Business Insider European countries are importing less Russian fuel than earlier but nevertheless cannot reject it in full, the news outlet said NEW YORK, August 2/ The United States is reducing volumes of natural gas supplies to Europe and prevent it from rejecting the fuel from Russia, the Business Insider news portal said. European countries are importing less Russian fuel than earlier but nevertheless cannot reject it in full, the news outlet said. The United States more and often redirects liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Europe to Asia, where the price of this commodity is higher than in Europe. According to the report of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) released in mid-July, LNG supplies to Europe plunged by 20% to 7.4 mln metric tons - this is the lowest figure since October 2021. The decline of LNG exports to Europe was driven by lower gas demand, storages being filled, greater pipeline imports and a significant premium in the gas price in Asia. LNG imports by Asian countries gained 8.2% to 22.36 mln metric tons, according to the report. Europe imported 54.6 mln tons in total in the first half of 2024, while Asian imports added 10% to 141.6 mln metric tons. #business #finance #financialservices

The US has grown in recent years to become the biggest LNG exporter in the world. Trump's victory in the latest election offers a boost to project developers, who had faced a pause on new project approvals under President Biden. Although the Democrats may also have ended the pause on new project approvals in time, the Republican victory will likely accelerate the process and offer a more favourable environment for oil and gas producers. The energy industry will be weighing up the various implications of the win ... the future US foreign policy stance on Russia and Ukraine will also be key, given the importance of Russian pipeline gas and LNG flows to world markets. Trump's last period as president also saw a trade war between the US and China. LNG deliveries from the US to China stopped for a year, between mid-March 2019 and mid-April 2020 after tariffs were put on US LNG imports, leading traders to switch to alternative origins.

The DOE’s recent “pause” on LNG export applications has opened the door to some potentially serious changes in US policy. A close examination of public sources not as yet addressed in other publications suggests that some in the USG may be considering denying or de-prioritizing new LNG export permits that propose sales to China. China sales account for almost 25% of the volume of all proposed LNG exports affected by the current DOE “pause.” Although we cannot know what DOE will ultimately decide, my co-author Gabriel Collins and I discuss the potentially dramatic ramifications in the trade, energy, climate, and geopolitical landscape of banning future LNG exports between the world’s largest exporter and the world’s largest importer. [Scroll to bottom of article to read in full; limited number of free Foreign Policy articles monthly.] Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES) Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy Baker Botts #LNG #china #energytrade

Interesting thing to consider, not only considering path forward, but also the last wave of US LNG projects and their pre-2022 intended target market. On balance, less LNG to China means incrementally more coal demand for power, heating, and industry. But - the US is not the only country looking to add export capacity. Another interesting and live-action case study at the intersection between energy security, free markets, and climate policy.

Volumes are still up substantially for the first eight months of this year, however, in defiance of EU efforts to eliminate Russian gas imports entirely within a few years.

Strong demand for LNG into China, according to PetroChina

CHINA'S LNG IMPORTS THREATENED China’s Surging LNG Imports From US Threatened by Next Trade War https://hubs.la/Q02ZcDs80 The US has boosted sales of liquefied natural gas to China this year, although the surge may not last if the incoming Trump administration collides with Beijing over trade. #china #lngimports #lng #naturalgas #energyindustry #oilandgasindustry #tradewar

#Trump and the future of #Europe, #Energy, #NaturalGas and #LNG. Thank you to Anne-Sophie Corbeau for this: https://lnkd.in/dftT4cGC What we know: The US became the largest LNG exporter in 2023 and by 2030, is expected to represent 24% of global LNG export capacity. The EU imported about 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) more LNG in 2023 than in 2020, totaling around 130 bcm, in which the US share in EU LNG imports doubled from 23% in 2020 to about 47% in 2023. The gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine to the EU is set to end at the end of 2024. This has been an issue for years, as pointed out in "Putin Knew" by Dr. Robert Brooks Ph.D: https://lnkd.in/e2Bs6B8s The impact of Russian pipe gas will be less and less over the years, as pointed out in "A bleak outlook for Russian Natural Gas": https://lnkd.in/dfRQzaYA But how about Trump? He is likely to reverse Biden's pause on US LNG export licenses, which could facilitate approvals of terminals and increase US LNG market presence post-2030. He has been a proponent of "US Energy Dominance" and may continue such advocacy. (https://lnkd.in/dAss7ym9) As noted, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen seems open to this idea of more US LNG. Trump's Tariffs are far more controversial in economic circles, and as Anne-Sophie Corbeau pointed out, such could hinder European industry growth and thus energy consumption, which could theoretically impact US LNG exports, though Europe has plans for reductions as it is. EU / US is a complicated relationship, just as Old World / New World might imply. Any European reading Politico might be in a quandary. But suffice it to say, Americans are majority Europeans who struck out on their own to forge a new culture. And so recent articles in such as Politico miss the mark badly, because they dare not try and understand the average American (lest they be converted?). I only digress, as understanding Trump may also be achieved by a better understanding of those who voted for him, apparently not something Politico is willing to do. Pew research has some clues: https://lnkd.in/diJP8jWF Complications? EU's New Methane Emissions Regulation Uncertainty around the future of Russian gas exports to the EU. Trump's potential diplomacy in regards Russian-Ukrainian War Sanctions on Arctic LNG 2 Project It will be interesting to see what the flows are really like and how much they will be able to change under one administration with current EU energy policies in place. We will see. Let's make better energy decisions. RBAC, Inc. rbac.com Edward O'Toole