Alex Froley’s Post

🔍 Potential Impact on US LNG Exports Amid Election Uncertainty The future of US LNG exports may hinge on the upcoming election, as policy directions from both parties reveal stark contrasts that could reshape the industry. A Trump victory might bring a 60% tariff on Chinese imports—potentially raising trade risks for the booming US LNG sector despite his commitment to fast-track energy permits. Analysts warn that this move could backfire by prompting China to avoid new LNG contracts with the US, instead re-exporting supplies to bypass the tariff. 📈 US LNG exports reached record highs last year, doubling volumes from just four years ago and securing billions in trade. Yet, with Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign not clarifying its stance on current permit freezes, concerns linger over possible regulatory delays under a continued Democratic administration. While Harris is viewed as a potential ally by environmental groups, this could mean obstacles for new LNG projects. As the world’s largest LNG exporter, the US stands at a crossroads. Industry leaders like Cheniere Energy, Inc. Energy are preparing for a regulatory shift no matter the outcome. Meanwhile, with natural gas demand in key states rising sharply due to export needs, stakeholders are closely watching how energy policy—whether tariff-driven investment or regulatory slowdowns—will shape the future of US LNG on the global stage. Credit - LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) #LNG #Energy #USElections #TradePolicy #NaturalGas #Gas #Power

How will another Trump administration impact China's LNG? 1. During Trump first term, he started the trade war by imposing tariffs on Chinese imports into the US, China retaliated. US LNG tariff went as high as 25% by June 2019. No US LNG were imported into China between March-19 to April-20. 2. US LNG currently produce around 22% of global total, and set to rise to 30% by 2030, for projects with final investment decision. If Trump were to reverse the pause on new LNG project approvals, US share could go as high as 40% of global total. 3. With 20million long-term contract signed with US, China is likely to sign even more US LNG in the coming years. The big caveat is, will tariff war intensify? More portfolio swap such as seen by Vitol-China Gas deal recently? 4. Will Russia-Ukraine war end in a day? More importantly, will Trump remove sanctions on Russia Artic LNG-2 which could offer an immediate 6.6mT of supply in the tightly balanced market now? 5. Renewables are likely to suffer. China, with the world largest solar panel producing capacity has many plants, such as LONGi Green Energy factory operating under US soil. #trump #US #China #LNG #renewables #ICIS Thanks to Fei Xu and Yuanda Wang, CFA for their insights. And Fauzeya Rahman.

More pressure forming on U.S LNG demand... Major LNG buyers trust traditional suppliers over US, potentially leaving more US cargoes for Europe. Significant LNG buyers like Japan, Taiwan and South Korea have raised concerns about the Biden administrations pause on LNG export permits to non-Free Trade Agreement countries. These Asian buyers do not have Free Trade Agreements with the US and the pause has been seen as an indicator of unreliability to these nations. Whilst US LNG often comes in the cheapest, the lack of supply security has further reinforced the need to maintain crucial long-term LNG supply agreements with traditional players, like Qatar and Australia. In contrast, Europe has a preference for spot markets where they can secure cargoes as they need them, and when they see prices as favourable. This dynamic could see less competition for spot cargoes from Asian buyers and free up more US LNG for Europe.  #2buy2 #energy #procurement

CHINA'S LNG IMPORTS THREATENED China’s Surging LNG Imports From US Threatened by Next Trade War https://hubs.la/Q02ZcDs80 The US has boosted sales of liquefied natural gas to China this year, although the surge may not last if the incoming Trump administration collides with Beijing over trade. #china #lngimports #lng #naturalgas #energyindustry #oilandgasindustry #tradewar

🛢️China’s Oil, Gas, and Coal Import Dependency🛢️ “China depends on imports for 72 percent of its oil consumption, and the overwhelming majority of China’s oil imports must pass through maritime chokepoints over which the United States has significant influence. "To mitigate its vulnerabilities, China’s government has invested billions of dollars in overland pipelines, launched a national tanker fleet it can direct to sail through conflict zones and potentially run blockades, and begun building out its capabilities for long-range power projection.” --2022 Annual Report to Congress

CHINA LNG: After an impressive twenty consecutive month run of y-o-y sales growth, recent sluggish LNG truck sales in China portend that its impact on LNG demand in the world's largest LNG importer might be less significant than once thought. Sources say LNG as a fuel for heavy duty trucks is too vulnerable to the price competition dynamics with diesel and the government will likely not offer subsidy support to boost its uptake. Electric heavy duty trucks are also quickly gaining market share. Story by Clara Tan https://lnkd.in/dFHqd4Rk

The German government has prohibited state-owned LNG terminals from receiving gas from Russia, citing it as counter to the country's interests and its goal to eliminate reliance on Russian energy, according to the Financial Times. This move could impact Russian LNG exports more broadly due to trade agreements between the European Union and the incoming U.S. presidential administration. Deutsche Energy Terminal informed the government that its terminal in Brunsbüttel was preparing to receive a shipment from Russia on Sunday. In response, the Ministry of Economy issued instructions to 'not accept any deliveries of Russian LNG... and to refuse their acceptance in the future until further notice.' The government document stated that the ban was imposed to protect 'public interests.' Allowing Russian LNG would undermine the purpose of building import terminals, which is to make Germany and the EU 'independent of Russian gas,' according to the Ministry of Economy. After losing access to Russian pipeline gas in 2022, #Germany rapidly constructed several LNG import terminals. These facilities have yet to receive Russian fuel, although the German company Sefe holds a long-term contract for purchasing gas from Yamal LNG. However, according to Kpler, nearly all shipments are redirected to a terminal in France, where the gas is regasified and transported through pipelines to other European nations. Since October 2022, Germany has been receiving pipeline gas from #France.

🇺🇸 ➡️ Trump 2.0 to reshape global LNG landscape, unlock long-term demand The geopolitical implications of expanded US LNG production are also substantial. The Trump administration could leverage LNG as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations with Europe, Russia and other major economies. Europe is still searching for reliable, long-term alternatives to Russian piped gas and LNG supply, while China-US LNG trade is likely to be affected by tariffs. Source Rystad Energy https://lnkd.in/gXU4dtrx #LNG #USLNG #Trump #tarrifs

US complicates Europe’s attempts to give up Russian gas — Business Insider European countries are importing less Russian fuel than earlier but nevertheless cannot reject it in full, the news outlet said NEW YORK, August 2/ The United States is reducing volumes of natural gas supplies to Europe and prevent it from rejecting the fuel from Russia, the Business Insider news portal said. European countries are importing less Russian fuel than earlier but nevertheless cannot reject it in full, the news outlet said. The United States more and often redirects liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Europe to Asia, where the price of this commodity is higher than in Europe. According to the report of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) released in mid-July, LNG supplies to Europe plunged by 20% to 7.4 mln metric tons - this is the lowest figure since October 2021. The decline of LNG exports to Europe was driven by lower gas demand, storages being filled, greater pipeline imports and a significant premium in the gas price in Asia. LNG imports by Asian countries gained 8.2% to 22.36 mln metric tons, according to the report. Europe imported 54.6 mln tons in total in the first half of 2024, while Asian imports added 10% to 141.6 mln metric tons. #business #finance #financialservices