The Republican primary will be held on Saturday, February 24th. Despite running against a popular and charismatic former governor, Donald Trump has maintained a substantial lead in every major poll, averaging over thirty points most recently. Trump has also garnered multiple endorsements, including Governor McMaster and Senators Tim Scott and Lindsey Graham.
If Haley overperforms expectations on Saturday, she would owe it to South Carolina’s status as an open primary state. Independents and Democrats who did not cast ballots in the earlier Democratic primary will have the option to vote in the Republican contest. These voters would presumably break for Haley over Trump. The Haley campaign banked on such crossover votes in New Hampshire, however, and still fell considerably short. South Carolina is significantly more conservative than New Hampshire, so Haley will need more than just moderates to make it close.
New voters might also help. South Carolina has enjoyed strong domestic in-migration in the past few years and led the nation in domestic in-migration in percentage terms this past year. In absolute numbers, 340,392 more people have moved to South Carolina over the past 5 years than moved away, with many relocating from the Northeast.
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