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https://lnkd.in/g8UTaDeS Energy - Brent falls below US$75/bbl ICE #Brent extended its decline for a third straight session with prices falling sharply by almost 4% in the early trading session today as the risk premium has diminished. #Israel has assured the #US that it will not strike #crude oil or #nuclear facilities in Iran. This has removed a big overhang for the oil market in the immediate term. #Metals – Global #steel demand could recover next year The latest forecasts from the World Steel Association (WSA) show that global steel demand could fall by 0.9% YoY to 1,751mt in 2024. However, the association expects demand to recover by 1.2% YoY to reach 1,772mt in 2025 after declining for three consecutive years. Agriculture – Cocoa stable on supply woes #Cocoa prices are stable as heavy rain in Ivory Coast could slow the new season harvest and the delivery of beans to ports. Prices have already surged to record highs this year following a massive supply shortage last season The latest data from #China Customs shows that China’s soybean imports jumped to near-record highs and rose 59% YoY to 11.37mt in September. This follows imports reaching record highs of 12.14mt in August, driven by lower global prices and potential US trade tensions. Meanwhile, cumulative #soybean imports over the first nine months of the year stand at 81.9mt, up 8% YoY.   Commodities – September 2024 - https://lnkd.in/g_--6v74 Excellent work by ING

The state of commodity markets Commodity prices are expected to decrease by 5 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026, after softening 3 percent this year. This would lead aggregate commodity prices to their lowest levels since 2020. The projected declines are led by oil prices but tempered by price increases for natural gas and a stable outlook for metals and agricultural raw materials. The Brent crude oil price is projected to average $80/bbl in 2024, before slipping to $73/bbl in 2025 and $72/bbl in 2026. Thus, from their 2022 high, annual average oil prices are expected to decline for four consecutive years through to 2026, settling just slightly above their 2021 level. The possibility of escalating conflict in the Middle East represents a substantial near-term upside risk to energy prices, with potential knock-on consequences for other commodities. However, over the forecast horizon, longer-term dynamics—including decelerating global oil demand, notably in China; diversifying oil production; and ample oil supply capacity held by OPEC+—suggest sizable downside risks to oil prices, especially if OPEC+ unwinds its latest production cuts. There are also two-sided risks to industrial commodity demand stemming from economic activity. On the one hand, concerted stimulus in China and above-trend growth in the United States could push commodity prices higher. On the other, weaker-than-anticipated global industrial activity could dampen them #commodity #markets  #price #worldbank

HWWI index, which tracks a basket of 31 commodities, revealed that commodity prices in the United States unexpectedly dropped by -3.8% in August compared to the previous year. As my heatmap below demonstrates, the primary reason for these “unexpected” results can be found in the energy raw materials sector. Specifically, crude oil prices fell by almost -8% YoY. Other commodities showed more stable trends. In agricultural raw materials, increases in pulp and rubber were partially offset by a decrease in cotton prices. Among metals, tin prices continue to rise, while lead and nickel are easing. Within the food-related commodities, rice prices have finally dropped compared to last year. In the edible oils subcategory, coconut and palm oil prices continue to rise, while soybean oil prices are decreasing. Finally, stimulants remain a concern, with cocoa, coffee, and tea prices still at high levels, though the impact is somewhat mitigated by declining sugar prices. #macrobond #hwwi #us #commodities

📊 Weekly Commodity Update (June 17-23) 🌾💼 https://lnkd.in/dVKyW4Xk The past week has seen significant movements in the commodity markets. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the changes: 🔼 $CL #CrudeOil: +2.91% Crude oil prices surged this week, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical tensions. 🔼 $RB #RBOBGasoline: +4.75% Gasoline prices rose sharply due to increased demand during the summer driving season. 🔼 $BRN #BrentCrude: +3.17% Brent crude followed the upward trend of crude oil, influenced by global economic conditions. 🔼 $HO #HeatingOil: +0.85% Heating oil saw a modest gain, reflecting seasonal fluctuations and supply factors. 🔼 $BO #SoybeanOil: +0.60% Soybean oil prices edged up slightly, supported by strong demand in the biodiesel sector. 🔼 $KC #Coffee: +1.07% Coffee prices increased, benefiting from favorable market conditions and supply concerns. 🔼 $LH #LeanHogs: +0.96% Lean hogs posted gains amid reports of tightening supplies and strong export demand. 🔻 $NG #NaturalGas: -6.11% Natural gas prices dropped significantly due to mild weather and ample storage levels. 🔻 $ZW #Wheat: -8.36% Wheat prices fell sharply, pressured by higher global production estimates and favorable weather. 🔻 $KE #WinterWheat: -7.37% Winter wheat also declined, reflecting similar trends as the broader wheat market. 🔻 $ZC #Corn: -3.33% Corn prices decreased, influenced by improving crop conditions and strong production forecasts. 🔻 $ZS #Soybeans: -1.63% Soybean prices were down, weighed by trade uncertainties and favorable planting weather. 🔻 $SB #Sugar: -2.37% Sugar prices dipped, impacted by higher-than-expected production and reduced demand. 🔻 $CT #Cotton: -3.82% Cotton prices saw a decline, driven by weak demand and improved crop conditions. Staying informed about these trends is crucial for making strategic investment decisions in the commodities market. 📈📉 #CommodityMarket #Trading #Investing #Oil #Agriculture #MarketTrends #Finance #InvestmentStrategies

China’s Bulging Commodity Stockpiles Show Depth of Economic Woes. Inventories of key raw materials are piling up in China, evidence that economic activity remains too feeble to clear a surplus that’s crushing prices from steel to soybeans.

📰 #Rapeseed #price in Paris #rose another 2% to a 5-month high 🤔 The intentions of the European Commission to limit the supply of Russian agricultural products to the EU market supported the prices not only of wheat but also of rapeseed.   📈 May rape futures on the Paris MATIF rose 2% yesterday to the highest level since October 2023 at €457/t or $495.3/t (+3.1% for the week, +10% during March). August futures are still trading at the same level, which indicates that the market is ignoring forecasts of a decrease in harvest.   ⚖ Experts of the Coceral agency predict that, due to the reduction of sowing areas, rapeseed production in the EU and Great Britain in 2024 will decrease compared to the previous year by 1.1 to 20.2 million tons. At the same time, the MARS agency increased the forecast of the average yield of rapeseed in the EU in 2024 to 3.25 t/ha, which will exceed last year by 2% due to abundant rainfall and mild winter.   🔎 In the current season, rapeseed prices reached a maximum of €513/t in July and then fell to €407/t in February.   ⚖ According to Oil World estimates, the volume of rapeseed processing in the EU in the first half of 2023/24 MR reached a record 12.8 million tons and exceeded the corresponding figure last year by 0.65 million tons. But in January - June, they will traditionally decrease and amount to 11.9-12 million tons, given the decrease in domestic supply and low volumes of canola imports from Canada and Australia.   ⚖ According to the Canadian Grain Commission, in FY 2023/24 Canada exported 3.8 million tons of canola as of March 17, which is 34% lower than last year due to high oil prices.   📈 Following canola prices, May canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose 2.4% yesterday to (+2.8% for the week, +10.5% for the month), so they are not interesting for EU importers.   🔎 High oil prices support rape quotes. May Brent crude futures rose 1.6% to $86.8/barrel yesterday, reversing losses of the past three sessions amid new attacks on Russian refineries and heightened geopolitical risks following the Crocus City Hall attack.   💡 According to the CFTC, large speculators increased their net long position in Brent crude oil futures and options to a one-year high, limiting further price gains in the near term. Attacks on Russian refineries will increase the supply of crude oil on the world market and limit the supply of gasoline and diesel fuel inside the Russian Federation.   🤔 Therefore, markets should be prepared for a collapse in oil prices, as well as for oilseeds, against the backdrop of a seasonal increase in the supply of soybeans and palm oil in April and May. 📻 Source: https://lnkd.in/e5GTsrek Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

On Commodities Market In the domestic market, Rice now N85,000 per bag, Garri N45,000 per bag, Beans N120,000 per bag. We observe reduction in some commodity prices though (palm oil, semovita, sugar, Eggs (crate and new Yam). N. B: Domestic prices surged on seasonality effect, fast approaching sallah festivities. We expect the May inflation numbers latest June 15 In the international market, crude oil market, Brent rose by 0.34% to $78.68pb while WTI fell by 0.47% to $74.42pb. OPEC’s Brent prices gained due to expectations that U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates in September. So, Crude Oil prices are likely to remain bearish in the near term as OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to restore production cuts in Q4’24. The movement in the prices of some other commodities are as follows: Wheat price was down by 0.99% to $651.75/bushel due to softer demand as buyers anticipate lower prices and expectation of improved U.S. wheat outlook Corn price dropped by 0.11% to $442.00/bushel, driven by improved corn planting in the U.S. and expectation of favourable weather Cocoa price dropped by 2.30% to $9,327.00/mt, on forecasts of higher crop deficits due to supply shortages from Ghana and Ivory Coast Sugar price increased by 0.95% to $19.04/pound as India extends restriction on exports and poor weather conditions in key producing countries Nigeria plans to suspend import levies on food for 6 months to ease inflation In conclusion, grain prices is expected to be mixed as wheat is expected to be bearish due to soften demand as buyers anticipate lower prices and improved corn planting in the U.S. Cocoa prices is expected to remain bullish owing to lower production in top growing production In the near term, the price of sugar will be bearish on improved sugar production in Brazil A fall in the price of cocoa will decrease foreign earnings of exports and lower the standard of living of cocoa farmers Suspension of import levies will lower input costs and improve the cost of living Lagos Commodities and Futures Exchange (LCFE) #CommoditiesMarket #Oil #Cocoa #Sugar #FoodMarket

European vegoils Palm oil mixed on contrasting signals GDYNIA, April 17 (LSEG) - Palm oil prices on the European vegetable oils market were mixed on Wednesday. Prices were supported by falling stocks and improved exports data in March. Malaysian palm oil futures plunged to a six-week low on weak demand and weighed. Asking prices for palm oil were between $20 a tonne up and $20 a tonne down from Tuesday after Malaysian palm oil futures closed between 6 and 62 ringgits per tonne lower. At 1700 GMT CBOT soyoil futures were between 0.18 cent per pound higher and 0.07 cent per pound lower following Chicago soybeans on ample global supplies and beneficial weather outlook in the U.S. EU rapeoil was offered five euros a tonne higher for nearby May. More distant positions were offered three and nine euros a tonne lower tracking weak energy prices. Lauric oils were mixed at close. Coconut oil was offered between $5 a tonne higher and $10 a tonne lower. Palmkernel oil was offered in a wilder range with asking prices between $25 a tonne up and $45 a tonne down. Prices followed bearish sentiment in palm oil and a few aggressive sellers.

Commodity prices are expected to decrease by 5 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026, after softening 3 percent this year. This would lead aggregate commodity prices to their lowest levels since 2020. The projected declines are led by oil prices but tempered by price increases for natural gas and a stable outlook for metals and agricultural raw materials. The Brent crude oil price is projected to average $80/bbl in 2024, before slipping to $73/bbl in 2025 and $72/bbl in 2026. Thus, from their 2022 high, annual average oil prices are expected to decline for four consecutive years through to 2026, settling just slightly above their 2021 level. The possibility of escalating conflict in the Middle East represents a substantial near-term upside risk to energy prices, with potential knock-on consequences for other commodities. However, over the forecast horizon, longer-term dynamics—including decelerating global oil demand, notably in China; diversifying oil production; and ample oil supply capacity held by OPEC+—suggest sizable downside risks to oil prices, especially if OPEC+ unwinds its latest production cuts. There are also two-sided risks to industrial commodity demand stemming from economic activity. On the one hand, concerted stimulus in China and above-trend growth in the United States could push commodity prices higher. On the other, weaker-than-anticipated global industrial activity could dampen them.

The recent spike in crude palm oil (CPO) prices echoes the commodity boom of 2021/22, as supply constraints from lower palm oil production and robust consumer demand push prices up. The anticipation of production disruption as a result of the prolonged effect of El Niño, which brings dry and hot weather conditions, has also pushed up CPO prices. Year to date (YTD), the three-month CPO futures have surged over 11%, closing at RM4,074 per tonne on Tuesday. The commodity just hit a high of RM4,336 on April 3. Bursa Malaysia’s Plantation Index has likewise climbed, rising a total of 5.58% YTD. The index closed at 7,399.24 on Tuesday. “The rise in CPO prices is in line with the general trend of other commodities, which have been affected by all the recent sanctions on 'unfriendly' nations and escalating geopolitical risks. With shipping routes affected, it has also cost more to transport commodities,” TA Investment Management Bhd chief investment officer Choo Swee Kee told The Edge. https://lnkd.in/gt-7tRbb