Mave Fund’s Post

The soybean market illustrates the volatile nature of commodities The soybean market saw prices rise yesterday, a positive trend for this popular commodity. However, August Futures hinted at the capriciousness of the market, revealing a slight dip as compared to other months. This unexpected dip intrigued investors and traders, sparking a closer examination of the market’s movements. Despite the slight anomaly presented by the August futures, soybeans maintained an overall upward-leaning price trajectory. Numerous variables are considered to evaluate this market beginning with weather and demand changes. These inconsistencies remind us of the ever-volatile, unpredictable nature of commodity trading. Market fluctuations, triggered by a cocktail of factors like market states, demand-supply balance, or unforeseen developments, are commonplace. Businesses aim to stabilize these swings for improved financial management and risk mitigation. Traders utilize strategies like futures contracts and hedging to secure profits amidst these price fluctuations. The mystery behind these sudden price shifts, though intriguing, are also adding to the complexity of the market. Soybeans aren’t unique in experiencing these market movements. Parallel price shifts are evident in other commodities like Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Hard Red Wheat, Spring Wheat, Crude Oil WTI, ULSD NY Harbor Gasoline RBOB, and Natural Gas. The resulting price fluctuation depends on a range of market elements including supply-demand imbalances, geopolitical climates, weather changes, and various economic indicators. The dynamics of not just soybeans but other key commodities as well, are constantly being monitored for future implications. Variations in these markets can indirectly impact soybean price trends. Global political transitions and substantial variations in economic indicators also sway commodity prices and trading strategies, hence making thorough market analysis complex yet indispensable. Doubts and uncertainties are part and parcel of the commodity market, however, continuous market observation can help brace traders for potential market volatility. The importance of staying alert and informed in this dynamic market, therefore, cannot be overstated. https://lnkd.in/d5ePbFjw #soybean #soybeanmeal #soybeanoil #commodities

Market Insights: November 18, 2024 As a registered commodity trading advisor, we constantly monitor market movements to identify key trends and opportunities. Today, we are sharing some notable market data that highlights the top gainers and losers, as well as Fridays’ volume and range leaders. YTD% Gainers and Losers: Top Gainers: Cocoa has surged by an impressive 105.12%, followed by Coffee at 49.65%, and Silver at 26.35%. These commodities have shown remarkable growth, reflecting strong market demand and favorable conditions. Top Losers: On the flip side, Soybean Meal has dropped by 24.97%, Soybeans by 23.07%, and Wheat by 16.11%. These declines indicate potential challenges in these markets, possibly due to oversupply or changing consumer preferences. Friday, 11-15-2024 Gainers: Feeder Cattle led the pack with a 1.66% increase, followed by Natural Gas at 1.36%, and Corn at 1.19%. These commodities showed resilience and positive momentum. Losers: Soybean Oil fell by 2.05%, Crude Oil by 2.45%, and NASDAQ 100 by 2.47%. These declines highlight areas of market weakness and potential volatility. Volume and Range Leaders: Volume Leaders: Cocoa, Feeder Cattle, and the NASDAQ 100 were the top volume leaders, indicating high trading activity and investor interest. Range Leaders: Feeder Cattle and the Japanese Yen showed significant range movements, reflecting substantial price fluctuations and trading opportunities. #Commodity Trading #MarketInsights #Investing #TradingStrategies #Finance

THE COMMODITY PRICE OUTLOOK FOR 3RD QUARTER 2024. The commodity price outlook for 3rd quarter 2024, provide mixed feelings of optimism and anxiety. On the whole, most of the commodity prices were gradually taking a downward trend as compared to the previous quarter. As of 2 August 2024, around 10.30 A.M oil was trading at $ 77.11 which was a slight decline from the previous quarter price of $ 80.33. Oil has fallen in the $ 70-$80 bound which we have predicted on the onset of this year. Oil prices have maintained moderate price on the whole. With regards to special metals only gold has experienced a price spike from $ 2441.60 as of second quarter to $ 2507.80 in third quarter. Silver experienced a dip from $ 31.92 to settle at $ 29.05 in the third quarter, platinum from $ 1076.96 in second quarter to $ 974.82 in the 3rd quarter and finally copper from $ 510.15 to settle at $ 411.40 in the 3rd quarter. In the 3rd quarter of 2024, Agricultural commodities which fall under grains has suffered a continuous price decline as compared to second quarter prices. For instance, corn has experienced a drastic fall in price from $ 454.75 in second quarter to settle at $ 399 in the 3rd quarter. Moreover, wheat prices were on a dip from $ 665.25 in second quarter to $ 530.75 as of 3rd quarter 2024. The golden grain, which is soyabeans prices has dwindled from second quarter prices of $ 1228.75 to $ 1024.00. Agricultural commodities which fall under softs also experienced mixed prices movement. The prices of cocoa has fallen from $ 7 348 in second quarter to settle at $ 6 542 as of 3rd quarter. Coffee and sugar experienced positive price movements. Coffee prices increased from $ 206.60 in second quarter to 226.60 as of 3rd quarter. Sugar gained to $ 18.54 from the backdrop of $ 18.13 as of second quarter. Orange Juice and cotton also experienced negative price movement. Orange juice has fallen from $ 448.45 as of second quarter to settle at $ 420.75 as of 3rd quarter. Cotton has also suffered negative price movement from $ 76.44 to $ 68.26. Rubber, a commodity which fall under the category of forestry experienced a fall in price from $ 170.60 to $ 168.90. This may have been attributed to reduction in scale of production as most industries are gradually reaching peak level production before they gradually start to reduce their capacities. Conclusively, special metals are likely to experience an upturn and a successive positive trajectory towards year end. On the other end, oil is likely to maintain stability till year end whereas agricultural commodities are like to experience gradual price increases.

📰 A 4.3% drop in #soybean #oil prices puts pressure on #palm and #sunflower oil markets 🤔 After a speculative gain of 11% since the start of July, soybean oil futures fell yesterday amid an improvement in the state of the US soybean crop and traders taking profits.   📉 August soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell 4.3% to $1,020/t yesterday, giving up a week's gain but still remaining 5% higher than a month ago.   ⚖ According to USDA's NASS, the number of U.S. soybeans in good or excellent condition increased 2% to 68% for the week (51% last year), which also increased pressure on soybean and soybean oil quotes.   📉 September Brent crude oil futures for 4 sessions fell by 3.3% to $84.6/barrel (-2% for the week, +4.1% for the month), which also negatively affects quotations of vegetable oils and oil cultures   📉 Awaiting the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's supply and demand report and following soybean oil prices, August palm oil futures on Bursa yesterday fell 2% to RM3,959/t or $841/t (-3.3% per week), as traders expect inventories to increase due to increased production and reduced exports. According to the average estimate of 12 planters, traders and analysts polled by Reuters, palm oil stocks rose by 4.53% to 1.83 million tons in June.   🔎 The average price of sunflower oil delivered to buyers during the week fell 0.8% to $920/t, amid increased competition from cheap palm oil in the Indian market and increased supply of canola oil in the EU, according to Trading Economics. 📻 Source: GrainTrade / Ukrainian electronic grain exchange Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

🔵💬 Market briefs in the morning by Esteban Moscariello: - Renewed tension between Iran and Israel in the wake of the overnight news is pushing the oil market to strengthen this morning, increasing volatility and causing a rally in other commodities, including wheat in Chicago. - The soybean market is trying, once again, to regain momentum and is trading at highs this Friday morning in Chicago, after the intense falls of the previous session. - Soybean prices in Chicago rose between 2.25 and 4 points in the most traded positions. The May contract was quoted at $11.37 and the July contract at $11.51 per bushel. - Commodities rose across the board this Friday, led by wheat in Chicago - which rose more than 1.5% - and coffee in New York, with increases of more than 2.3% -, both contributing to lifting the rest of markets. - Traders remain attentive to the macro scenario and the evolution that the geopolitical scenario brings for these assets, especially in relation to the behavior of the dollar. - Yesterday, Chicago wheat prices retested the $5.35/bu zone in May 2024 futures, returning to their lowest level in a month. - Weekly wheat export sales figures also failed to support the market, with confirmed sales cancellations for the current campaign and a reported turnover of 222,000 tonnes for the new campaign. - In corn, weekly sales published by the USDA exceeded the level of 500,000 t. Despite this level, volumes are much lower than in recent weeks, which weighs on prices. - At the moment, US traders appear to be downplaying the impact of the recent decline in disease yields in Argentina. - However, the accompanying USDA report for Argentina now reports production of 51 million tons, well below the official USDA estimate of 55 million tons in early April. - Soybean oil prices fell again, setting a new low for the May 2024 contract. - Soybean prices for the same maturity exceeded $11.40/bu and also closed at a new low. - China's soybean imports in March reach their lowest level in four years. - 13.9% of the area suitable for soybean planting in Argentina has been harvested, with a delay of -22 p.p. in the progress of the harvest at the national level compared to the average of the last five campaigns. - In the Northern Core, the soybean harvest in Argentina has advanced by 43.5% of first class soybeans, with an average weekly yield of 38 qq/Ha, 1.7 qq/Ha above the average. - 17.2% of the estimated area for commercial grain corn in Argentina has been harvested, with an average yield of 87.9 qq/Ha. - A production of 49.5 Mt of corn is projected in Argentina, a reduction of 7 Mt compared to the initial projection. - Consulting firm Sovecon estimated that Russia would export between 4.2 and 4.6 million tons of wheat in April, compared with a record 4.4 million tons a year ago. - Russia shipped about 4.9 million tons of wheat in March, the most on record in any March. ➡️ By Esteban Moscariello - 📌📈

📰 Quotations for #soybean and palm oil remain stable, despite the drop in oil prices 💡 Soybean and palm oil futures traded flat during the week, despite data on increased exports from Malaysia and a drop in canola and canola oil prices. Also, the markets did not react to the decrease in forecasts of the sunflower harvest in Ukraine and the Russian Federation due to the heat.   📈 December soybean oil futures in Chicago rose 10% in early July, but then fell for two weeks to $993/t (+3% for the month) under pressure from favorable weather for the US soybean crop.   ⚖ According to USDA's NASS, soybeans in the U.S. remain in good or excellent condition at 68% (54% last year), and crop development is 5% ahead of the 5-year average.   🤔 Active soybean exports from Brazil and increased supplies of soybean oil and meal from Argentina increase pressure on global quotations.   📈 September #palm oil futures on Bursa rose 1% during the week to 3,969 ringgits/t, or $850/t, despite a substantial increase in exports in July.   ⚖ According to surveyors Intertek Testing Services and AmSpec Agri Malaysia, during July 1-20, Malaysia increased palm oil exports by 39.2-41.4% compared to the same period in June. Oil production is also increasing, but to a lesser extent, so lower inventories at the end of the month could lead to higher quotes.   💡 According to Trading Economics, during the week the average price of sunflower oil with delivery to buyers increased by 0.5% to $910/t. Prices almost did not react to forecasts of a 15-20% decrease in the sunflower harvest in Ukraine and the Russian Federation and remain under pressure from an increase in the supply of rapeseed and soybean oil.   🔎 In #Ukraine, demand prices for #sunflower #oil remain at the level of $900/t with delivery to ports and $830-850/t FCA - factory.   📉 September Brent oil futures for the week fell by 3.3% to $81/barrel (-4.9% for the month) against the background of worse than expected data on the state of the US economy, which in the long run may reduce the demand for oil In addition, there is growing political uncertainty associated with Biden's refusal to run for President of the United States.   🤔 A drop in oil prices to $80/barrel and below will increase pressure on vegetable oil prices, as biodiesel producers have been the driver of recent price increases. 📻 Source: GrainTrade / Ukrainian electronic grain exchange Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

🚀📈 Missed #Nvidia? There’s still a chance to get on the #AI bandwagon, especially with AI #metals. My colleague and commodities expert, Ole Sloth Hansen, discusses the short-term and long-term drivers of key commodities. While a tepid China recovery can be a headwind, long-term drivers for metals like #Copper, including the #EnergyTransition and #AIDemand, are just getting started. 🌍🔋🤖 #Commodities #InvestmentStrategy #TechGrowth #MarketOpportunities

Brent oil futures for June deliveries on the London ICE Futures exchange on Friday rose by 0.8% to $ 90.45 per barrel, and on Monday fell by 0.34% to $ 90.14 per barrel (-0.5% for the week, +4.5% for the month). Along with this, palm and soybean oil quotes fell. Malaysia increased crude palm oil production by 10.57% in March compared to February, reaching 1.39 million tons, and exports increased by 28.61% to 1.32 million tons, which reduced inventories by 10.68% to a 10-month low of 1.71 million tons. From April 1 to April 15, palm oil exports from Malaysia increased by 9.2% compared to the same period in March, reaching 633.7 thousand tons according to Intertek Testing Services and 28.5% to 697.45 thousand tons. After the end of Ramadan, oil production is expected to increase. In the April USDA report, the forecast for the production of veg oils in the world was increased from 222.85 to 223.17 million tons (against 217.88 million tons in 2022/23 MG), and the forecast for palm oil imports to India and China was reduced by 0.2 million tons to 9 and 6 million tons, respectively, and its exports from Indonesia were reduced by 0.35 million tons up to 27.35 million tons. May soybean oil futures in Chicago fell by 5.2% over the week to $ 1002 per ton (-7.2% per month) amid an increase in the supply of cheap soybeans from South America. Even data on the expansion of soybean processing in the United States did not support prices. According to NOPA, in March, soybean processing in the United States amounted to a record 5.35 million tons, which exceeded analysts' forecasts and by 5.7% - the March 2023 figure. Sales of soybean oil increased by 9.5% compared to February, reaching 840 thousand tons, which is almost the same as in March 2023. The average price of sunflower oil with delivery to customers decreased by 0.8% in a week to $873 per ton, and in Ukraine prices dropped by 5-10 dollars per ton to $800-805 per ton with delivery to the ports of the Black Sea, $840-850 per ton with delivery to Bulgaria, $880-890 per ton with delivery to Italy. Against the background of a decrease in the forecast for palm oil exports, the USDA raised the forecast for sunflower oil exports from Ukraine by 0.15 million tons to 5.9 million tons and Russia by 0.1 million tons to 4.4 million tons due to an increase in imports by Egypt by 0.25 million tons to 0.6 million tons. The cost of Black Sea sunflower oil remains stable, and India is concluding deals at a price of $ 960 per ton with deliveries in May. At the local level, the Indian market is active, but the depreciation of the euro against the dollar limits the ability of traders to meet local requirements. In Europe, prices for sunflower oil fluctuate around $ 960 per ton, while buyers tend to purchase it at a price of $ 940 per ton. It is expected that the price correction for sunflower oil will be completed in the near future, and prices in the range of 920-950 USD will present an attractive opportunity for buyers.