Matthew Barsing’s Post

Most recently, we wrote about the #MiddleEast and #markets’ reaction, the elections in #India, and the PBOC’s #Renminbi strategy. Read ⬇️ 🌍 Market Insights or the Talion law 📈 The recent conflict in the Middle East is driving market pessimism, leading to a flight-to-safety and shorter investment horizons. This is reflected in the "W-shaped" volatility patterns we are witnessing. Investors are constantly adjusting to the shifts between geopolitical escalation and relaxation, resembling the principle of Talion law - an "eye for an eye" approach. Current oil prices, at USD90, include a geopolitical risk premium of USD5 to USD10. Additionally, the current geopolitical scenario is likely to prompt a slightly dovish stance from central banks. Expect significant intraday volatility in equity markets influenced by technical and fundamental factors, regardless of the news source.   🇮🇳 Indian Elections 🗳️ India is set to conduct parliamentary elections from 19th April to 1st June, with results expected on 4th June. Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party are poised for a third term, leading the coalition government. Continuity in reforms is crucial, with a focus on regulations, infrastructure, the labor market, and the manufacturing sector to sustain rapid growth and position India as an attractive destination for foreign investment. The government aims to elevate India's infrastructure and trade logistics to rank among the top 25 countries globally by 2030. While India has the potential to become the second-largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region and the third largest globally by 2030, downside risks should be considered.   🇨🇳 PBOC's Renminbi Strategy 💰 Despite global pressure, the onshore Chinese yuan (CNY) has exhibited remarkable stability, with a slight depreciation of just -0.1% this month. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to control this depreciation by accepting modest and controlled depreciation, while keeping the USDCNY onshore rate below 7.34. Policy measures to support the economy, such as potential cuts in the reserve requirement ratio and the one-year loan prime rate, may still be expected, although implementation could be delayed. The controlled depreciation of the renminbi may positively impact other Asia-Pacific currencies strongly correlated to it. https://lnkd.in/ecXB_Ueu #ludonomics #allianztrade #allianz

The recent presidential elections in the USA have led to significant changes in financial markets. The Czech koruna has weakened by over 5.5% against the USD since the end of August and by 1% against the euro. While this could be positive for exporters, companies should consider hedging currency risks. The foreign exchange market offers hedging options through 2025. Despite less favorable conditions for the USD, managing currency risk is crucial. We recommend using financial instruments or reducing exposure through foreign currency financing. Read more on our blog ⤵️

Last week, we told you how the different outcomes of the election will affect your business. Now that Donald J. Trump will be the 47th President of the United States, here's that we wrote on what to expect, what steps you can take to prepare your business, and how Pillar can help: #election #commodities #currencies #hedging #industrials #manufacturing #import #export #volatility #market #metals #scrapmetal #president #tariffs #markets

From April 2025, the domicile concept will be abolished, making way for the new Foreign Income and Gains (FIG) regime. What does this mean for you? #TaxChanges #UKFinance #DomicileRules #FIGRegime

Mexico's currency has depreciated notably since the June general elections, due to concerns over possible constitutional reforms. Our Consensus is for the peso to lose ground over the coming years as the positive interest rate differential with the U.S. narrows; the approval of constitutional reforms that weaken democratic safeguards and the fiscal position is a depreciatory risk. Find out more: https://lnkd.in/edYgbSpv #Mexico #economicforecast #exchangerate

Here is what brokerages have to say about #LokSabhaElections2024 outcome.

Did you know that in the run up to the November election, the President touted tariffs as high as 60% on the world's second largest economy. Capital at risk. #wealthmanagement #invest #stockmarket #inflation #interestrates #womeninvest #investing #marketvolatility #risk #investor #economy #funds #investment #investmentmanagement #financialmarket #financialfactfriday

#Budget2024 #LiveUpdates The Finance Minister announced that FDI rules will be simplified, and efforts will be made to promote the use of the Indian currency globally #TaxmannUpdates #TaxmannBudget #UnionBudget #FinanceMinister #FDIRules #IndianCurrency

On this Republic Day, let’s pledge to secure both our nation and our finances! 🌟 #india #republicday #freedom #finance #growth #independence #dreambig #financialgoals #wealthmanagement

Kenyan President Ruto's Fiscal Strategy Amid Public Unrest Kenyan President William Ruto responds to budget deficit with spending cuts, borrowing increase amid widespread protests and IMF pressure. Read more: https://bit.ly/467yIyw #globalbusinessoutlook #kenya #fiscalstrategy #presidentruto #budgetdeficit #publicunrest #economiccrisis #spendingcuts #borrowing #governmentreform