Bulent Kenes’ Post

ECPS - Policy Paper Revising the Trumpian Legacy in the US Foreign Policy towards Latin America By Massimo Ronco & Christo Pretorius Edited by Angelica Lisa Rossi-Hawkins This paper revisits the legacy of former US President Donald #Trump’s foreign policy towards #LatinAmerica and the #Caribbean (#LAC), with a particular focus on economic #policies and their long-term impact. It argues that Trump’s policies eroded US soft power in the region and failed to adequately address #China’s expanding influence. Although the Joe #Biden administration sought to reset #US relations with LAC, it retained the bulk of Trump’s protectionist policies, perpetuating ongoing #trade volatility and regional #instability. This paper emphasizes the need for a revised US economic #strategy in Latin America that both counters China’s influence and fosters deeper economic #integration across the region. The authors propose three policy scenarios for the future: a more aggressive protectionist stance under a second Trump administration, a continuation of Biden-era policies under potential future Democratic leadership, or a more integrative approach that enhances regional #cooperation and #infrastructure development. Read the Policy Paper: https://lnkd.in/dcgYEbFJ

ECPS - Policy Paper Revising the Trumpian Legacy in the US Foreign Policy towards Latin America By Massimo Ronco & Christo Pretorius Edited by Angelica Lisa Rossi-Hawkins This paper revisits the legacy of former US President Donald #Trump’s foreign policy towards #LatinAmerica and the #Caribbean (#LAC), with a particular focus on economic #policies and their long-term impact. It argues that Trump’s policies eroded US soft power in the region and failed to adequately address #China’s expanding influence. Although the Joe #Biden administration sought to reset #US relations with LAC, it retained the bulk of Trump’s protectionist policies, perpetuating ongoing #trade volatility and regional #instability. This paper emphasizes the need for a revised US economic #strategy in Latin America that both counters China’s influence and fosters deeper economic #integration across the region. The authors propose three policy scenarios for the future: a more aggressive protectionist stance under a second Trump administration, a continuation of Biden-era policies under potential future Democratic leadership, or a more integrative approach that enhances regional #cooperation and #infrastructure development. Read the Policy Paper: https://lnkd.in/dcgYEbFJ

➡️ U.S. foreign policy has turned in a widening gyre in the last quarter century, as one president after the other—Bush, Obama, Trump, and Joe Biden—brought very different approaches to the White House. Allies and adversaries alike began to discount the commitments of each president, given the likelihood that his policies would be reversed or dramatically modified by his successor. ➡️ Although Jacksonian national populism and Jeffersonian isolationism have their legitimate place in American foreign policy debates, neither can fully address today’s challenges. Another historical school of U.S. foreign policy, Hamiltonian pragmatism, is better suited to the crises of the contemporary world. ➡️ Based on the political philosophy of Alexander Hamilton, the Founding Father and first secretary of the treasury, this school offers a grand strategy that actively promotes U.S. commerce, American patriotism, and enlightened realism in foreign affairs.

"... high debt levels and an aging population will limit the nation’s ability to convert economic power into military capability at the exact same moment the United States needs to modernize to match China’s drive to win the battle for AI supremacy. This trade-off will only be made more complex by the rising costs of national disasters, leaving horrible choices between raising the debt and burdening future generations, modernizing the military, or paying for hurricane, fire, and flood relief. The United States cannot ignore a world on fire, especially when the aftermath triggers additional waves of migration and inflation that deepen domestic political divides in America. At the same time, Washington—whoever is in charge—cannot ignore economic reality."

In June, Americas Quarterly published Mauricio J. Claver-Carone, former senior official in the first Trump administration, on the implications of a second term for Trump for U.S. policy toward Latin America. A second Trump term would focus on reviving hemispheric economic growth through nearshoring and other policies, argues Claver-Carone. Read the full article here: #uslatinamerica #uspolicy #latinamerica https://lnkd.in/eNyqXpb2

“America First,” an approach that has fundamentally reshaped U.S. foreign policy in the first Trump term, stands likely to return for the next four years. What should we expect from Trump 2.0 in terms of #foreignpolicy and #geopolitics? Read here: https://lnkd.in/eVUBn5gp

In Federalist Paper #11, Hamilton makes a dramatic shift away from factions and into the need for national unity. His essay may have been written over two centuries ago, but its message on national unity and strong federal government is still relevant in today's globalized world. Alexander Hamilton's argument for a cohesive national identity, free from internal trade barriers, is crucial for creating a robust commercial system that promotes economic growth and fiscal stability. A centralized authority is necessary for negotiating international trade agreements, establishing uniform trade policies, and projecting a unified national interest in foreign relations. The infrastructure development, such as roads and canals, that Hamilton advocates for are facilitated by a strong federal government and enhance economic connectivity and technological progress. Let's take inspiration from Hamilton's vision to foster national unity and promote economic prosperity in the modern era. #NationalUnity #StrongFederalGovernment #EconomicProsperity #GlobalCompetitiveness #InfrastructureDevelopment #federalistpapers

In light of the impending U.S. presidential election, the next 48 hours have profound implications for global affairs over the ensuing 4 to 5 years. A Trump victory could lead to significant disruptions in international security and trade relations, given his previous tenure's approach to foreign policy. Trump's unconventional diplomatic style and "America First" agenda could reignite tensions with allies and adversaries alike. Conversely, a Harris win might foster a more predictable international environment. Her administration would likely prioritize rebuilding alliances and re-engaging with multilateral institutions, potentially leading to more stable global dynamics. However, it is crucial to note that the complexities of global politics extend beyond a single election outcome. Regardless of the victor, the U.S. will face ongoing challenges navigating international relations, trade agreements, and security concerns. The ultimate impact on world affairs will depend not only on the election result but also on the subsequent policy implementations and global responses thereto. #DonaldTrump  #TrumpFelonyConvictions  #MoneyMarketImpact  #PoliticalInstability #MarketVolatility #InvestorConfidence #USPolitics #EconomicImplications #FinancialMarkets U.S. Department of State European Commission Foreign and Commonwealth Office #RegulatoryUncertainty  #InterestRates #Creditworthiness #MarketAnalysis #PoliticalEconomy #GlobalInvestors

https://lnkd.in/e_5rnst3 I'm thrilled to have had my first article publication in a think-tank! It is a brief analytical forecast that attempts to predict a potential future Trump Foreign policy based on a mix of past cases, theory, and current positions by the former president

Chinese elites are weighing the potential impacts of a Trump return, with some more fearful of the future than others. Pessimists anticipate deteriorating US-China relations, with harsher policies on Taiwan and trade. Others see opportunities, predicting Trump’s transactional approach could benefit Beijing at America’s expense. https://lnkd.in/dQA59uFj #ChinaUSRelations #TrumpReturn #Geopolitics #InternationalTrade #TaiwanPolicy #DiplomaticTensions #EconomicOpportunities #PoliticalForecasts