Charles Jett’s Post

ECPS - Policy Paper Revising the Trumpian Legacy in the US Foreign Policy towards Latin America By Massimo Ronco & Christo Pretorius Edited by Angelica Lisa Rossi-Hawkins This paper revisits the legacy of former US President Donald #Trump’s foreign policy towards #LatinAmerica and the #Caribbean (#LAC), with a particular focus on economic #policies and their long-term impact. It argues that Trump’s policies eroded US soft power in the region and failed to adequately address #China’s expanding influence. Although the Joe #Biden administration sought to reset #US relations with LAC, it retained the bulk of Trump’s protectionist policies, perpetuating ongoing #trade volatility and regional #instability. This paper emphasizes the need for a revised US economic #strategy in Latin America that both counters China’s influence and fosters deeper economic #integration across the region. The authors propose three policy scenarios for the future: a more aggressive protectionist stance under a second Trump administration, a continuation of Biden-era policies under potential future Democratic leadership, or a more integrative approach that enhances regional #cooperation and #infrastructure development. Read the Policy Paper: https://lnkd.in/dsVEYZaC

ECPS - Policy Paper Revising the Trumpian Legacy in the US Foreign Policy towards Latin America By Massimo Ronco & Christo Pretorius Edited by Angelica Lisa Rossi-Hawkins This paper revisits the legacy of former US President Donald #Trump’s foreign policy towards #LatinAmerica and the #Caribbean (#LAC), with a particular focus on economic #policies and their long-term impact. It argues that Trump’s policies eroded US soft power in the region and failed to adequately address #China’s expanding influence. Although the Joe #Biden administration sought to reset #US relations with LAC, it retained the bulk of Trump’s protectionist policies, perpetuating ongoing #trade volatility and regional #instability. This paper emphasizes the need for a revised US economic #strategy in Latin America that both counters China’s influence and fosters deeper economic #integration across the region. The authors propose three policy scenarios for the future: a more aggressive protectionist stance under a second Trump administration, a continuation of Biden-era policies under potential future Democratic leadership, or a more integrative approach that enhances regional #cooperation and #infrastructure development. Read the Policy Paper: https://lnkd.in/dcgYEbFJ

ECPS - Policy Paper Revising the Trumpian Legacy in the US Foreign Policy towards Latin America By Massimo Ronco & Christo Pretorius Edited by Angelica Lisa Rossi-Hawkins This paper revisits the legacy of former US President Donald #Trump’s foreign policy towards #LatinAmerica and the #Caribbean (#LAC), with a particular focus on economic #policies and their long-term impact. It argues that Trump’s policies eroded US soft power in the region and failed to adequately address #China’s expanding influence. Although the Joe #Biden administration sought to reset #US relations with LAC, it retained the bulk of Trump’s protectionist policies, perpetuating ongoing #trade volatility and regional #instability. This paper emphasizes the need for a revised US economic #strategy in Latin America that both counters China’s influence and fosters deeper economic #integration across the region. The authors propose three policy scenarios for the future: a more aggressive protectionist stance under a second Trump administration, a continuation of Biden-era policies under potential future Democratic leadership, or a more integrative approach that enhances regional #cooperation and #infrastructure development. Read the Policy Paper: https://lnkd.in/dcgYEbFJ

Dealing with Trump...again: Managing the relationship with Uncle Sam has been the constant in Canadian foreign policy since before Confederation. With a second Trump presidency, we face the threat of an across-the board 10-per-cent-or-more tariff and a withdrawal of the American defence umbrella. Canada must use the time between now and the inauguration to both clear up unfinished business with the Biden administration and be ready for the Trump administration. Working with the Trump transition team, we need to take the initiative and come up with a new ‘roadmap’, setting out management of the relationship around four baskets: defence and security; trade and investment; energy, environment, and climate; and the border. Dealing with the US requires patience and perseverance. We must resist the temptation to pontificate and preach,We need to keep a vigilant eye on the administration’s agenda, identifying when we can be helpful and when we need to stand up for Canada. It means taking the initiative and coming up with imaginative solutions.

"... high debt levels and an aging population will limit the nation’s ability to convert economic power into military capability at the exact same moment the United States needs to modernize to match China’s drive to win the battle for AI supremacy. This trade-off will only be made more complex by the rising costs of national disasters, leaving horrible choices between raising the debt and burdening future generations, modernizing the military, or paying for hurricane, fire, and flood relief. The United States cannot ignore a world on fire, especially when the aftermath triggers additional waves of migration and inflation that deepen domestic political divides in America. At the same time, Washington—whoever is in charge—cannot ignore economic reality."

In June, Americas Quarterly published Mauricio J. Claver-Carone, former senior official in the first Trump administration, on the implications of a second term for Trump for U.S. policy toward Latin America. A second Trump term would focus on reviving hemispheric economic growth through nearshoring and other policies, argues Claver-Carone. Read the full article here: #uslatinamerica #uspolicy #latinamerica https://lnkd.in/eNyqXpb2

The Political and Economic Impact of Donald Trump's Victory on the European Union Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 presidential election marked a significant turning point for the EU, posing profound political and economic challenges. His "America First" doctrine signaled a departure from decades of multilateralism, raising concerns about American commitment to NATO and traditional alliances. This skepticism engendered uncertainty among EU leaders, who were forced to grapple with a shifting geopolitical landscape. Trump's presidency also fostered the rise of populist and nationalist movements within Europe, as leaders like Matteo Salvini and Marine Le Pen drew inspiration from his rhetoric. This fragmentation threatened the EU's cohesion and decision-making processes, undermining its foundational principles of democracy and unity. Economically, Trump's trade policies had immediate repercussions for the EU. Tariffs on steel and aluminum strained transatlantic relations and prompted retaliatory measures from the EU, further destabilizing the global trading system. In response, the EU sought to diversify its trade partnerships and reinforce economic resilience. Trump's tenure prompted a reevaluation of the EU's strategic priorities, with an emphasis on autonomy and defense capabilities. The ideological divides instigated by his presidency continue to influence European politics, reflecting ongoing tensions that extend beyond his term in office. In conclusion, Donald Trump's victory transformed U.S.-EU relations, compelling Europe to confront immediate economic threats while grappling with fundamental questions about its political integrity. The lingering impacts of his administration will undoubtedly shape the future of the EU in a complex global landscape.

https://lnkd.in/e_5rnst3 I'm thrilled to have had my first article publication in a think-tank! It is a brief analytical forecast that attempts to predict a potential future Trump Foreign policy based on a mix of past cases, theory, and current positions by the former president

“Yes, on Jan. 20, 2025, Donald Trump will return to the White House. Yes, expect him once again to be willful, arbitrary and transactional. No, our goose is not cooked,” write Edward Greenspon, Janice Stein and Drew Fagan in a new essay in The Globe and Mail. “Rather than being in reactive mode, as we were in the USMCA negotiations, Canada needs to take control of the steering wheel,” they argue. “We need to come forward with a plan that identifies where our national interests converge and where we can deepen the relationship, including trade but not just trade, for our mutual benefit.” The Greenspon/Stein/Fagan op-ed is rooted in a joint project between PPF and the University of Toronto - Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy called Matter More, which calls for a renewed, robust Canada-U.S. partnership that would reinforce Canada's role both on the continent and in the global arena through a handful of high-impact sectoral initiatives that focus on economics and security. “In the tradition of NORAD and the 1965 Auto Pact, Canada and the Trump-led United States have the opportunity to do big things together in the interests of our shared continent and as friends in a divided and dangerous world,” the trio argue in the Globe op-ed. “After a year of consultations with about 150 experts for the Public Policy Forum and Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy’s Matter More project, we are convinced Canada holds winning cards and now needs to focus on the most impactful ones. And, as Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador in Washington, has said, we should be playing our hand with the confidence of a country that has many of the answers to the problems that others face.” Read the full essay here: https://lnkd.in/ez2455jk   Read the Matter More report here: https://lnkd.in/eP6n6Brz

A 2023 essay on US-China relations from Alex Wong, who this past week was appointed principal deputy national security advisor in the incoming Trump administration. An excerpt: "(T)he CCP’s parasitic abuse of both the liberal order and the U.S. economy has backed the United States into an endgame where—regardless of whether we seek to or not—our reasonable counters to Chinese strategy will create legitimacy dilemmas for the CCP. "And we have to get comfortable with that reality. The CCP will react stridently to U.S. countermoves and accuse us of undermining Chinese society. That’s not a reason to halt the pursuit of our policies. Put aside the fact that the CCP itself is not shy about actively undermining the cohesion of U.S. society. And put aside the fact that we should not be obliged to subjugate U.S. and allied interests to CCP strategy and the continuance of the party state in China. Rather, the proliferation of legitimacy dilemmas for the CCP—in the economic, security, and international political realms—will be a clear metric of whether U.S. strategy is working. This is precisely because the CCP has chosen to predicate its legitimacy on the diminishment of U.S. interests."