Capt.(Dr.) S G Naravane’s Post

Post-ISIS Iraq: Permanent Fragility It has been ten years since #theIslamicState (#IS or #ISIS) declared its "caliphate" in #Iraq & #Syria, committed horrible crimes against #Yazidis & other groups, and waged a war of annihilation against anyone who disagreed with them. In this interview with The New Arab (TAN)'s Zainab Mehdi I analyze the lasting impacts of the terrorist organization on local communities and post-ISIS Iraqi state. Thanks to the sacrifices of Iraqi security forces, Kurdish Peshmerga and the indispensable support of the US-led global coalition, the security situation has improved. Yet the political situation is fragile and may remain so for the foreseeable future because the ruling elites don't want to address the root causes of the problem and oppose any meaningful reform that may lead to redistribution of political power and economic wealth. Kawa Hassan, a Nonresident Fellow with Stimson's MENA program, pointed to the lasting trauma in Mosul, Sinjar, and other areas IS controlled. “The massacres, sexual slavery, destruction of culture and heritage, and killing of everyone who didn't agree with their politically totalitarian and deeply sectarian doctrine have deeply traumatised local communities.” But Hassan observes that while the security situation in Iraq has improved, the political process remains fragile. The defeat of IS provided an opportunity for substantive reforms and addressing the demands from the 2019 October uprising, yet these measures have not materialised. Accountability for the fall of Mosul and Sinjar is notably absent, with government ministries increasingly functioning as personal fiefdoms and corruption remaining rampant. The judiciary is weaponised to undermine political rivals, and despite efforts to enhance foreign relations, Iraq lacks a cohesive national vision. 👇

My review on Tabassum Majeed's book "Swat Under Taliban: Conflict Dynamics and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding" The book delves into the unrestrained period of the Taliban's reign in Pakistan's Swat Valley, offering a critical analysis of the rise of militancy and the trajectory of conflict's dynamics and the path toward Peacebuilding. The book is a diligent research of the dark chapter in the history of Swat where from mid-2008 to mid-2009, some worst tragedies happened in the dazzling valley. Rad full review at: https://lnkd.in/d3mnTv9c #Swat #Afghanistan #Pakistan #Taliban

Tabassum Majeed's "Swat Under Taliban: Conflict Dynamics and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding" delves into the unrestrained period of the Taliban's reign in Pakistan's Swat Valley, offering a critical analysis of the rise of militancy and the trajectory of conflict's dynamics and the path toward Peacebuilding. The book is a diligent research of the dark chapter in the history of Swat where from mid-2008 to mid-2009, some worst tragedies happened in the dazzling valley. The book explores the breakdown of governance, the rise of militant groups, and the social climate that provided fertile ground for the Taliban's ideology. The narrative then presumably shifts towards the harsh realities of the Taliban's rule. Majeed likely documents the impact on civilians, including the erosion of civil liberties, the implementation of strict religious codes, the suspension of women's education, and the violence that permeated everyday life. An important aspect of the book is its examination of the eventual decline of the Taliban's control which was made possible with the help of the Pakistan army. The military operations, the role of local resistance movements, and the factors that contributed to the weakening of the Taliban's grip on the valley. Read More at: https://lnkd.in/dWEhKhE9 #Pakistan #Swat #Taliban #Afghanistan #PakArmy #AsianPolitico

Why Does Hamas & Hezbollah Enjoy Such Widespread Support? If there is one question that has vexed me since 7/10 last year, it is how seemingly 'average' and educated people in the West, could have lined up behind Hamas (and lately Hezbollah) in this conflict with Israel, despite not being anti-Semitic nor generally anti-Israel. I think the answer is this - it is very difficult for people in the West, especially younger people, to understand (let alone accept), that values and a lifestyle that we enjoy and take for granted in the West, are NOT the same values that most Palestinians nor other Islamic fundamentalists aspire to. While not defending the so-called educated & 'average' Westerners' position taken in this conflict – it’s really difficult to accept that we don’t all want the same things in life (education for all, equal treatment of men and women, the ability to adopt a secular life etc) – BUT it’s a critical mistake to view Islamic fundamentalism through a Western liberal lens. We must all do a better job at informing those that traditionally adopt a more moderate & centrist position, that just because we in the West may subscribe to particular values & ideals, doesn’t mean that Hamas & other Islamic fundamentalists want the same things we do. So when one sees the innocent deaths in & the decimation of the Gaza strip, it’s so much easier to blame Israel as the cause of this death & decimation THAN to accept that the cause of this horror is Hamas (and by extension the majority of the Palestinians) in Gaza and lately Hezbollah for the destruction in Lebanon. This I believe is why it is Israel, that is continually pressed for ceasefires, to cease its ‘hostilities’, to ‘de-escalate’ the conflict and negotiate a peace settlement with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran – but how do you do that when NONE of these groups want peace AND their stated (and repeated) desire is to destroy Israel and kill all Jews. The conflict could have ended on 8/10 IF: 1. Hamas returned the hostages; 2. Hamas denounced terrorism and stopped launching rockets into Israel; & 3. Hamas' leadership surrendered We all know none of these 3 conditions were met - so how could Israel not respond? Hamas has repeatedly said they welcome death & that all Palestinians in Gaza are prepared to be 'martyred' in order to support their stated aim to destroy Israel. Hezbollah’s participation in this conflict was initiated by it – in ‘support’ of Hamas on 8/10 BEFORE Israel had even entered Gaza. When there is an understanding/appreciation that we do not all yearn for the same ideals, only then will there be a shift in the support given by many in the West for Hamas, Hezbollah, the Iranian theocracy and all other Islamic fundamentalist groups. Until then (while unjustified) Israel will continue to be seen as the aggressor and the root cause of all of this death and destruction. We must all try and and do whatever we can to explain this position to all that are open to listening.

The recent fall of the Syrian regime has been a topic of debate among Western leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and US President Biden. - by Frederic Eger - Map: Ethno-religious map of Syria {Supreme Deliciousness, CC BY-SA 1.0 via Wikimedia Commons Macron's statement that the "barbaric state" has fallen is a deceitful attempt to portray a change of regime based on military might as a popular uprising. However, it is unclear which part of the Syrian people Macron is talking about, as it is unclear which part of the Syrian people he is referring to. The Syrian reality is that by and large, there is no "Syrian people." Like Iraq and Lebanon, "modern" Syria is an invented country – cut by British and French colonialists out of whole cloth. The territory of "Syria" is home to a variety of people, differing by ethnicity and faith. The term "diversity" may sound comfortingly positive to Western ears, but the Middle Eastern reality is that "diversity" translates into sectarian division and lack of national cohesion. In Syria, eight decades of independence (more than five of them under the Assads) failed to forge a "Syrian" national identity. The "barbaric state" of the Assads was hated by many in Syria – and with good reason. But no, "the Syrian people" had little to do with the recent change of regime. For three decades, Syria has been held together in the iron grip of a ruthless tyrant – Hafez Al-Assad. Bashar Al-Assad, his son and successor, was widely viewed as an epigone. His perceived weakness emboldened internal opponents and attracted the interference of "neighbors" such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. With Russian and Iranian support, Assad re-established control over the country's largest cities and its most populous parts. Worried by Shia Iran's expanding influence, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirates lavished funds on a plethora of Sunni Islamist organizations, often at odds with each other, but all of them opposed to the Assad regime. The recent fall of the Syrian regime highlights the poor understanding of the Middle East and the need for a more nuanced approach to understanding the situation. By recognizing the diversity and diversity of the Syrian population, the West can better navigate the complex dynamics of the Middle East and work towards a more inclusive and just society.

The conflict between Muslims and Jews has deep historical roots, primarily driven by religious differences rather than merely territorial disputes. This is why the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict garners global attention and resonates with Muslims and Jews worldwide. However, the current conflict appears heavily one-sided, with Hamas suffering significant losses. Why is the Islamic world unable to effectively challenge Israel now? Read More: https://lnkd.in/ghw33yKn #Politics #Geopolitics #Israel #Palestine #Gaza

The fall of Bashar al-Assad, a pivotal moment in modern Syrian history, has left many communities, especially religious minorities like Christians, at a crossroads. Assad, who inherited a repressive regime from his father Hafez, was initially seen by some as a potential reformer. However, his legacy is now marked by the brutal suppression of the 2011 protests, which spiraled into a devastating civil war. What does this mean for Syrian Christians? Christians in Syria have been a significant minority, contributing to the cultural and religious diversity of the region. Under Assad's rule, they found a degree of protection from extremist threats but at the cost of living under an authoritarian regime. With Assad's regime falling, Syrian Christians face new challenges and uncertainties. The immediate concern is the potential rise of extremist elements within the rebel factions. There have been historical precedents where Christian communities were targeted by groups like ISIS or al-Qaeda offshoots in areas they controlled. The fear of forced conversion, persecution, or displacement looms large. Some opposition groups, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have promised to protect religious minorities, urging them to remain and continue their daily lives. However, these promises come with skepticism given the past actions of similar groups. Cautious optimism from some within the Christian community, noting that there are orders not to interfere with Christian practices. Yet, the credibility of these assurances is under scrutiny due to the complex and fragmented nature of the rebel groups. There's a growing call among Syrian Christians for self-organization and protection, possibly forming neutral, community-based defense units to ensure safety without aligning with any political faction. Given the history of Christian emigration from conflict zones in the Middle East, there's a significant chance that many Christians might seek refuge elsewhere, either in neighboring countries or further afield, if the situation deteriorates. Western nations, especially those with historical ties to Middle Eastern Christianity like France, might look to leverage their influence to ensure the protection of Christian communities in Syria. The future for Syrian Christians in a post-Assad Syria is fraught with both peril. As the political landscape shifts, the community will need to navigate between maintaining their cultural and religious identity, securing their physical safety, and perhaps, contributing to a new, inclusive Syrian narrative. #Syria #ChristianityInSyria #HumanRights #MiddleEast #Politics

https://lnkd.in/dpi6P9qX Western Democracies Face Not Only Hamas The Physical Organization But Also Hamas The Idea, Part of A Broader Islamist Infrastructure Nearly a year after the October 7th, 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel, the UK has witnessed serious riots involving concerns around mass migration and crime. Two events give us much to think about in the now nearly three-decades-long discussion surrounding Islamism, migration and multiculturalism. Tuesday, September 17, 2024   By: Ayaan Hirsi Ali The foreign policy of many European countries and even the U.S. will increasingly be shaped by growing support for Islamism, and by extension Hamas, among a certain share of the population. Whether this population is either Islamist, or non-Islamist but committed to a particular interpretation of “social justice” that valorizes Hamas, is less relevant than the effect of this support. For Hamas to be defeated, it will therefore not be sufficient for Hamas to be physically declawed. Driven by the same ideas, a similar group will simply arise, motivated by similar ideas, much like heads of a hydra can reappear and continue the fight. An earnest engagement with the principles and objectives of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas is required among Western intellectuals, humanitarians and representatives of civil society. My Hoover colleague Russell Berman has argued, on a more optimistic note, that it is possible to “defeat” harmful totalitarian ideas over time with sustained effort. I hope that this will be the case. In the meantime, both in foreign and domestic policies of Western democracies, it will be necessary to grapple not only with Hamas the physical entity but also with Hamas the idea.

https://lnkd.in/dEjQiqKc Growing Islamism In Europe Negatively Affects US Interests Another specter is haunting Europe today – the specter of Islamism. It has grown and spread across the continent so much in recent decades that it increasingly and negatively also affects US interests.  Tuesday, September 17, 2024   By: Matthew Boyse Islamism has altered political dynamics across the continent. Every NATO and EU member state now has at least one party with a strong focus on migration, Islam, and Islamism, which in almost a dozen countries is either among the most popular, can influence policy, decide governing coalitions, holds power or is a candidate for power. While their focus on this nexus of issues is positive, most pursue other policies that are very negative for the transatlantic relationship. Many are accommodationist or pro-Putin, minimally supportive of or anti-NATO, contain strong undercurrents of anti-Americanism, and/or oppose key US foreign policy priorities. This camp includes the German AfD (second most popular party, which includes supporters of its forerunner PEGIDA - Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the Occident), France (RN), Austria (FPOe), the Netherlands (PVV), Slovakia (Smer and its coalition partners), Hungary (Fidesz), Bulgaria (Vazrazhdane, Velichiye), Belgium (Vlaams Belang), Poland (Konfederacja), and the Czech Republic (SPD). Anti-Islamist parties in other EU member states (e.g. Sweden, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Romania) are more favorably disposed towards NATO and US policies. Rising Islamism also increases differences with Europe over Iran and Israel policy, as governments prioritize domestic peace and winning elections. It has contributed to softer Iran policies, enabling Tehran to expand its malign influence across the Middle East, as well as surges in antisemitism and hostile environments for Jews. Islamist networks based in Europe and elsewhere fan the flames of antisemitism, weaponizing it against allies and partners, and weakening US interests and positions. After Labor benefitted from Islamist voters in the July UK elections, PM Keir Starmer began looking to drop longstanding policy and recognize Palestine. His government is unlikely to confront visible and growing manifestations of Islamism. Macron may have to accommodate the Left on French Middle East policy, given its very strong electoral showing this summer, even if he has appointed a conservative PM.  

https://lnkd.in/ge-ZuMBn 'Even as Islamic Jihadists are taking over Syria, ethnically cleansing Kurds and terrorizing Christians, the media is hailing the new “inclusive” regime which “liberated” Syria.---Turkey bombing and displacing Kurds in Syria is considered “inclusivity”, but Israel bombing Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists in Gaza and Lebanon is termed “genocide”.---Occupation’ was a term widely used to describe Israel’s lack of presence in Gaza from which it had withdrawn back in 2005. But the simple fact that Israel was not in Gaza did not dissuade activists, journalists and the UN from accusing Israel of occupying land it wasn’t even on.---Another popular accusation was that Israel was conducting a ‘siege’ of Gaza by refusing to let Hamas terrorists through its borders to kill and rape their way across Israel.---Amnesty’s report is headlined, “‘You Feel Like You Are Subhuman”. If you feel like it’s genocide, well then it’s genocide.---Meanwhile actual genocidal efforts by Hamas on Oct 7 and Turkey in Syria to target ethnic groups are redefined as “liberation”.---But after a year of claiming that there was no food in Gaza (despite social media videos of the Arab Muslim population stuffing itself during its annual Islamic festivities), “starvation” was also redefined. ---So was ‘famine’ which is defined as 2 per 1,000 people dying of heart attacks. Over 1 million tons of food have entered Gaza since Oct 7. That’s half a ton for every terrorist supporter. Half a ton of food for every man, woman and child is to ‘starvation’ as population growth is to ‘genocide’ and as Jihad is to an ‘inclusive’ government in Syria.---By democratic movements, he means the Muslim Brotherhood. And democracy then becomes Islamic theocracy and political terror.---Under Obama, a “countering violent extremism” program was deployed to convince Muslims that Islamic terrorism of the kind practiced beginning with Mohammed was ‘un-Islamic’.---When Muslim Jihadis commit genocide, it becomes liberation. And when anyone fights back against them, it’s genocide. If they kill terrorists, it’s a war crime, and if they don’t kill them, it’s famine, siege and starvation no matter how fat the starving terrorists get.---Making everything morally opposite is truly all that is required for the triumph of evil.'