Five considerations for software private equity in 2024:
As we reflect on the past half decade of software investing, we’ve seen an unprecedented series of ebbs and flows driven by a volatile macro environment. While the last year or so was challenged (following a few years of breakneck intensity and investment), investors are looking at a more nuanced, more reflective but ultimately optimistic investing environment in software ahead, given the significant volume of dry powder still available, the re-opening of spend by CIOs, and a re-opening of processes aided by re-balanced valuations.
We’ve identified five key considerations to keep in mind as software investors prepare to engage with this new set of circumstances.
1. Private markets slow down in software creates opportunity
20 years of continued multiples expansion is now slowing down, and PE multiples in software are dropping significantly after years of being “flat.” These factors, paired with a challenging deal environment and previously unrelenting valuations, have let dry powder pile up.
2. GenAI driving waves of early disruption across software segments
GenAI continues to be seen as a transformative factor in software – enabling both disruption and innovation, with an estimated $250B of potential GenAI application spend. In the near term, traction will impact certain key domains, mostly high impact software categories likes sales and service tech will likely see a valuation boost from RFP buzz.
3. Software buyers expect to increase spend – with caveats
Overall, expect an increase in spend for software, accelerated by an increased dependence on and use of software to realize efficiency gains. That said, not all categories are equal – expect outsize spend increases in sales tech and data, while HCM and finance remain more stagnant. Vendor consolidation should remain the norm, except in areas of high innovation (e.g., data).
4. Reset opportunities for investors to rethink their software investing approach…
A delay in capital deployment from a slow 2023 is leading to accelerated sales processes for “long-in-tooth” hold periods. Expect continued fragmentation within certain domains (e.g., data) that will create headroom for thematic investments – with investors also exploring long term bets and carveouts or take-privates
5. …and shape the last mile of value creation for software companies
Companies exploring exit in the next 12-36 months could consider proactively driving portfolio company improvement initiatives. There is a wide disparity in realized value creation for software companies, with some companies creating 5-10X+ improvement of enterprise value through targeted revenue, M&A and operational improvements.
We’re happy to share additional materials on this topic, including an overview of our unique expertise build, diligence modules and software specific tools, portco value creation levers, domain perspectives and more.
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