Chatham House’s Post

With Trump's win now confirmed, it seemed like a good time to share my recent NK Pro article: How Donald Trump's reelection could scramble North Korea policy. Although a second Trump term could lead to an improvement in ties between Washington and Pyongyang, it would come with various risks. It is far from clear that pursuing talks would necessarily bring peace to the peninsula, a reduction in DPRK support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or an improvement in the lives of ordinary North Koreans. There’s a real danger that a more accommodating approach to Pyongyang, and in particular any acceptance of its nuclear weapons, could only encourage North Korea’s arms proliferation efforts around the world and aggression toward the South. This could lead Seoul to conclude that it must be prepared to go it alone and acquire its own weapons of mass destruction, disrupting the uneasy but stable armistice that has characterized inter-Korean ties since the Korean War. https://lnkd.in/gVFqw5Bm

Donald Trump, on his first day back in office after his second inauguration, characterized North Korea as a nuclear power and praised his relationship with Kim Jong-un. This acknowledgment, which shocked South Korea, underscored the diplomatic challenges facing President Yoon Suk-yeol amid ongoing impeachment proceedings. The comments marked a departure from the U.S.'s previous focus on complete denuclearization. Trump's remarks hinted at renewed negotiations without the strict denuclearization condition, a sentiment echoed by Marco Rubio, his nominated Secretary of State. Rubio pointed out that sanctions had failed to halt North Korea's nuclear advancements, advocating for a more comprehensive policy approach. This raised concerns in South Korea about being excluded from future negotiations and its own security. Analysts underscored the necessity for South Korea to align closely with the U.S. to protect its interests during the talks. With the current political instability and a divided government, there are worries about South Korea's diplomatic capacity. The South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed its commitment to denuclearization and the importance of collaboration with the U.S. and the global community to effectively combat the North Korean threat. #AsiaRisk #NorthKorea #SouthKorea https://lnkd.in/gZmZAcwN

With the election over and #DonaldTrump set to return to the White House, there will be inevitable speculation about whether he will restart talks with Kim Jong-un on #NorthKorea's nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. In a new piece for The Diplomat, I argue that it will be more difficult for a second Trump administration than the first. North Korea has been able to significantly remove the pressure that the first Trump administration implemented and gained a new supporter in #Russia. The incoming Trump administration could try to pry that support away as it works to end the war in #Ukraine, but may not have sufficient leverage to convince Moscow to completely abandon North Korea in a deal and return to active pressure. Even if it does, it would still need #China on board as well. In essence, any new talks will be more difficult and North Korea has gained leverage. https://lnkd.in/eg4Rxsgv

This turned out to be a most vigorous discussion on Twitter (X) tonight in the context of Asian geopolitical security, human rights, nuclear disarmament, and regional alliances already deeply established. I’ll try to post some related articles here on this most astounding policy statement and the regional fallout. Sankei, Asahi, Yomiuri, Joongang and Chosun Ilbo already grappling with it.

https://lnkd.in/dicFY98u Counter-productive activities: Russia on the international stage. Can the same comment be made about the others powers with global ambitions?

North Korea has not disclosed the results of the Supreme People's Assembly (SPA) session originally scheduled for January 21. As of January 23, there have been no updates from the Korean Central News Agency or the Rodong Sinmun, raising speculation about a possible extension or postponement of the meeting. This silence is unusual, as North Korea typically reports parliamentary meetings the day after they occur. The SPA serves as North Korea's top legislative body, mainly approving decisions made by the ruling Workers' Party of Korea. This session is particularly significant following U.S. President Donald Trump's inauguration, during which he described North Korea as a "nuclear power." Analysts are keenly watching for any statements from Kim Jong-un regarding U.S. relations, especially given the implications of Trump's remarks for future dialogue. The session was expected to address various issues, including potential constitutional revisions, and is viewed as an opportunity for Kim to articulate his position on U.S. relations amid rising anticipation for a resumption of talks. The focus on this parliamentary meeting highlights ongoing international interest in North Korea's governance and foreign relations. #AsiaRisk #NorthKorea #SouthKorea https://lnkd.in/gSUZpAvz

TVP WORLD 🇵🇱📺 Russian imperialist mindset, varied legal cultures during armed conflict, and opposed opinions by Western and Eastern commentators. 🇷🇺Interestingly enough, the same experts were claiming that Russia wouldn’t bother to attack Ukraine due to the lack of sensible military/strategic/economic reasons… ⚖️I’ve been preaching: understand the rationale of the perpetrator, instead of expecting them to obey the law. They are criminals, war criminals, they know the law. And they know how to break it. #RedLines #Russia #Ukraine #WarInUkraine #RussiaUkraine #RussoUkrainianWar #LegalCulture #LawOfArmedConflict #LOAC #IHL #InternationalLaw #InternationalHumanitarianLaw #WarCrimes 🔗

Reading List: US Foreign Relations 🇺🇸 From Trump's policy toward Russia and Sino-US rivalry, to Ukraine and nuclear politics, here are 1⃣5⃣ articles we recommend to understand America's global politics. 👇 https://lnkd.in/eBpi9c9