Colin Robertson’s Post

"... high debt levels and an aging population will limit the nation’s ability to convert economic power into military capability at the exact same moment the United States needs to modernize to match China’s drive to win the battle for AI supremacy. This trade-off will only be made more complex by the rising costs of national disasters, leaving horrible choices between raising the debt and burdening future generations, modernizing the military, or paying for hurricane, fire, and flood relief. The United States cannot ignore a world on fire, especially when the aftermath triggers additional waves of migration and inflation that deepen domestic political divides in America. At the same time, Washington—whoever is in charge—cannot ignore economic reality."

2024 has redefined the global political landscape, with seismic shifts on both sides of the Atlantic. In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party has ushered in a new era, while the United States will soon return to a Donald Trump administration.    Despite their stark political contrasts, both leaders face a critical task: ensuring the strength of the "special relationship" amid growing geopolitical challenges. From trade and tariffs to defense and tech innovation, Mark Simpson explores whether these two can bridge divides to forge common ground.   Read more about what's next for UK-U.S. relations here: https://lnkd.in/geVBN7WR   #agenda24 #sirkeirstarmer #donaldtrump #tradeandtariffs #governmentrelations #uncommonground

How many elections have been on your EU public affairs radar this year? Well, now the focus shifts back to US following Biden's announcement that he will not be running as the Democrats' Presidential nominee. What does this mean for Europe? A Harris presidency poses fewer risks for Europe than a Trump presidency - who is unpredictable at the best of times - which is why most EU leaders favour her. However, with Harris expected to continue Biden's approach the EU will need to finely balance its approach to priorities such as defence and Ukraine funding. In this post, Forefront Advisers Managing Director, Christopher Glück breaks down the key issues on the EU's plate, including global competition, the EU-US approach to China and any potential surrounding an EU-UK relaunch. Give it a read for free below!

2024 has been frequently cited as a year of grave concern. Major geopolitical challenges abound. At the same time, the US, despite its global economic and military dominance, is dealing with major internal political tribulations. In an event charged with implications, the US goes to the polls on November 5th. Against the backdrop of Trump's legal issues as our background it was fascinating to moderate the panel on the topic “US elections: is a Trump victory inevitable?” at the recent AIM Summit in London. We also explored what Trump version 2.0 would look like for foreign and trade policy. Great insights were imparted by two eminent and respected experts: Charles Myers, Chairman and Founder of Signum Global Advisors, an independent advisory firm operating at the intersection of policy and global markets, and Greg Swenson, Senior Partner and Founder of Brigg Macadam, a corporate finance firm focused on international financing. Greg is also the Chair of Republican Overseas UK. We discussed the contest for control of the Senate and the House, which will be just as important as the race for the White House itself. We looked at the possible composition of a future Trump cabinet and the implications for a whole range of policies including immigration, tax cuts, trade policy (especially regarding China), the likely elimination green energy subsidies and Trumps’s “drill, baby, drill” fossil fuel policies. Issues relating to NATO and Ukraine were also explored at some length. The whole post-World-war II settlement and the Washington Consensus may be about to be seriously, perhaps irrevocably, disrupted. We are living through interesting times! #aimsummit #trump #senate #whitehouse #china #nato #ukraine

🚨 Breaking news: Donald Trump is the 47th President of the United States With Donald Trump returning to the White House eight years after his first term, the financial landscape is poised for major upheaval. Key elements of his economic agenda include: ✅ Corporate Tax Cuts: Designed to stimulate business growth and investment. ✅ Support for Fossil Fuels: A renewed focus on the oil and coal sectors. ✅ Protectionist Policies: Increased tariffs that may escalate trade tensions with Europe and China. Discover the views of our Senior Investment Specialist, John Plassard on this evolving political landscape. #Mirabaud #MirabaudGroup #US #USelections #Politics

In June, Americas Quarterly published Mauricio J. Claver-Carone, former senior official in the first Trump administration, on the implications of a second term for Trump for U.S. policy toward Latin America. A second Trump term would focus on reviving hemispheric economic growth through nearshoring and other policies, argues Claver-Carone. Read the full article here: #uslatinamerica #uspolicy #latinamerica https://lnkd.in/eNyqXpb2

In Federalist Paper #11, Hamilton makes a dramatic shift away from factions and into the need for national unity. His essay may have been written over two centuries ago, but its message on national unity and strong federal government is still relevant in today's globalized world. Alexander Hamilton's argument for a cohesive national identity, free from internal trade barriers, is crucial for creating a robust commercial system that promotes economic growth and fiscal stability. A centralized authority is necessary for negotiating international trade agreements, establishing uniform trade policies, and projecting a unified national interest in foreign relations. The infrastructure development, such as roads and canals, that Hamilton advocates for are facilitated by a strong federal government and enhance economic connectivity and technological progress. Let's take inspiration from Hamilton's vision to foster national unity and promote economic prosperity in the modern era. #NationalUnity #StrongFederalGovernment #EconomicProsperity #GlobalCompetitiveness #InfrastructureDevelopment #federalistpapers

https://lnkd.in/g8kYYpt7 As the world watches Donald Trump’s bid for a return to the White House in 2024, businesses and governments alike are grappling with the implications of his potential second term. The Trump presidency from 2017 to 2021 left an indelible mark on the global order, characterized by protectionist policies, diplomatic unpredictability, and economic disruption. A renewed Trump administration promises a continuation—and potentially an escalation—of these trends, stoking fears in boardrooms and government halls worldwide. #economy #markets #equitymarkets #stockmarkets #trump #business #tradewars

As we witness a period of significant political change, with Donald Trump’s second U.S. presidency and shifts within key European countries, it’s a time to reassess our trans-Atlantic relationships and the resilience of our markets. These developments serve as reminders of the importance of adaptability and strategic foresight in an interconnected world. The commitment from European leaders to strengthen ties with the U.S. shows that even in times of political uncertainty, collaboration, and a forward-looking approach can provide stability. This is an opportunity for European businesses to deepen alliances, leverage innovative strategies, and stay prepared for challenges and growth. #GlobalRelations #BusinessResilience #TransatlanticPartnerships #StrategicForesight