Bull Case for Fusion: Cheap. Stable. Secure
💸 Cheap (One Day, Soon, Maybe?)
Cost reduction dynamics in fusion technology are proving dramatically steeper than mature renewable technologies. While solar and wind typically achieve 15-20% cost reductions per doubling of production, key fusion components like high-temperature superconductors demonstrate up to 45% cost reduction per doubling. This accelerated learning curve stems from fusion's digital-first development approach and the integration of advanced manufacturing techniques.
📯 Stable
Major utilities' modeling indicates that by 2040, with renewable penetration exceeding 80%, grid balancing costs could add $30-50/MWh to the effective cost of intermittent energy sources. In this context, fusion's projected $80/MWh levelized cost becomes highly competitive when accounting for its unique advantages: zero intermittency, flexible siting near demand centers, minimal transmission requirements, and valuable grid stability services worth an additional $15-25/MWh. The environmental premium – zero carbon emissions, minimal land use, and absence of long-term waste management costs – adds another $20-30/MWh in value within carbon-priced markets.
🌍 Secure
Major energy companies increasingly view fusion investment through the lens of energy security and strategic autonomy. This strategic imperative, combined with growing government support for clean energy independence, suggests strong policy tailwinds for fusion's commercial deployment. Early government support for demonstration plants, similar to the catalytic role played in solar and wind deployment, could accelerate cost reduction through the critical early commercial phase.
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Sales Executive
1moThis is awesome to the “Core”.