Sohail Ansari, Ph.D’s Post

As international attention is focused on tensions between Israel and Iran and the Israel-Hamas war, the aftermath of another significant conflict in the region, and its potential consequences, are going unnoticed. In my piece for Oxford Middle East Review on Armenia, I argue that Western countries should not ignore Armenia's search for new allies and take the opportunity to buttress its security to avoid countries such as Iran and Russia further establishing their influence in Caucasus and, worse yet, a renewed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan which could destabilise the region. Follow the link to have a read: https://lnkd.in/eq76Xwx5 #internationalrelations #internationalaffairs #middleeast #article #politics #armenia #russia #EU #iran #caucasus

Israel, mainly the Zionist movement with nation of Israel, have become swaggering and behave like a spoiled and undisciplined child. A nation Israel has never stood on its own two feet. It is and always has been a leech on the back of western taxpayers. Israel is deliberately trying to start a regional conflict that no one is interested in. Let’s not forget Israel deliberately struck the Iranian consulate in Syria. That means a violated the sovereignty of Syria and Iran. Diplomatic facilities are inviolable by international rules/law. Once again, Israel shown it believes that the rules do not apply to it. Largely their right because Western leaders as a whole are either bought and paid for or to weak to stand up to them. Sarcastically said, isn’t it wonderful to see Germany arresting and silencing Jews once again? Criminalizing political speech, squashing freedom of assembly, denying the freedom of speech to anti-Zionist Jews.

China is urging the United States to cease sending any signals that support "Taiwan independence" separatists, following the U.S. condemnation of China's guidelines on punishing those involved in separatist activities. The Chinese foreign ministry emphasized the importance of safeguarding national unity and territorial integrity, stating that external forces have no authority to intervene. China reiterated that Taiwan is an integral part of its territory and called for the U.S. to adhere to the one-China principle and refrain from supporting Taiwan independence. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #China Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/gktKumzQ

Dear readers, What does Peace mean? Is Justice important for conflict resolution? Who can be a mediator and what are mediators, such as China and Gulf states interests in Russia-Ukraine war? Are there lessons Ukraine can learn from Balkans and Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, as well as different Truth and Reconciliation commissions around the globe. All this in our new issue. https://lnkd.in/ep9Ns-pd

China's participation in brokering this reconciliation pact between Hamas and Fatah may influence its success in the area. China's expanding worldwide influence, as well as its increased involvement in Middle Eastern diplomacy, may put further pressure on the parties to fulfill their obligations. Beijing's mediation of the Saudi-Iran "rapprochement" in 2023 demonstrates its ability to mediate deals between antagonistic regional countries.China's diplomatic approach is focused on long-term involvement. Despite its expanding importance, China does not have the same fundamental presence and strategic links in the region as the US.Most importantly, the long-standing antagonism between Hamas and Fatah, as well as their opposing orientations toward Israel, may be difficult to resolve.The United States remains a vital participant in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and its position on any peace accord is going to have an impact on its viability.

From the Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates 🇵🇸 #Israel deliberately prolongs the war to thwart International Consensus on resolving the #Palestinian Issue The far-right Israeli government continues to exploit the international community’s failure to uphold international legitimacy and laws, intensifying its genocide and forced displacement against the Palestinian people. It systematically devastates all aspects of life in Gaza, while accelerating ethnic cleansing, land annexation, and settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank, including Jerusalem. This all-out Israeli war crime far surpasses any claim of “self-defense,” seeking instead to reshape the conflict’s future to serve the colonial, racist interests of Israel’s ruling far-right government. The Ministry views that Israel is purposefully severing the link between security and political solutions, maintaining a war-based approach to reshape regional stability through military dominance, disregarding any political avenue. The #Israeli government frames its actions as existential, masking its colonial agenda and ignoring the root causes of the conflict. The Ministry reiterates the ineffectiveness of military solutions in achieving regional stability and underscores that the international community’s inability to enforce its resolutions inadvertently enables Israel’s colonial policies, perpetuating cycles of #warcrimes.

"God spared my life for a reason" - Donald Trump 47th President of the United States of America. Middle East Policy The official Republican Party Platform of 2024 doesn’t say much about foreign policy in the Middle East aside from “stand with Israel” and “restore peace in the Middle East.”A second Trump administration could represent a continuation of previous policies from 2017-2021, including: - A “maximum pressure” approach to Iran with a focus on economic sanctions, strong rhetoric, and targeted military actions; - Strong opposition to diplomacy with Iran over a nuclear deal; - A lower priority on human rights and democracy in US policy and a higher priority on energy and economic policy cooperation; - A transactional relationship with regional strongmen like President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey; - A warm relationship with Saudi Arabia; - A desire to achieve a US-Saudi-Israel deal similar to the 2020 Abraham - Accords that opened formal relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco; - A ban on immigration from Muslim-majority countries; - A largely hands-off approach in Syria or a potential withdrawal of US forces from the country. #DonaldTrump #election #vote #politics #trump #news #elections #usa #KamalaHarris #india #biden #congress #maga #republican #MiddleEast #democrats #usapresident #america #joebiden #democracy #bjp #president #voting #government #conservative #republicans #bidenharris https://lnkd.in/d_ghWdDf

Sweden’s Neutrality Traded for Profits and Politics Sweden threw away 200 years of neutrality when it joined NATO, a move that pulled it into the orbit of countries eager to profit from the devastation in Ukraine. Sweden, once a peace-driven nation, is now among those circling for reconstruction contracts and cashing in on the suffering. Since joining NATO in 2024, it has poured billions of SEK into military support for Ukraine, not for peace, but to get a foot in the door when contracts are handed out. The country that stayed out of wars for centuries is now arming foreign forces and inserting itself into conflicts that have nothing to do with Sweden. Worse still, Sweden’s government wants new citizens to swear allegiance to Israel—a nation with no historical ties to Sweden. This proposed requirement ignores Sweden’s large Middle Eastern community, full of people from countries like Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, who hold strong opinions about Israeli policies. This policy shift is deeply troubling. Sweden, a country that once valued neutrality and independence, has become a pawn in the games of profit-driven alliances. It’s an insult to those who see Sweden as a haven of peace and stability. These actions will only deepen social divides and breed unrest among Sweden’s Muslim community. Sweden should return to what it knows best: neutrality, independence, and minding its own business. #Sweden #Neutrality #NATO #Ukraine #MiddleEast #SwedishPolitics #WarProfiteering #Peace

Iran Vows Revenge for Killing of Hamas Political Leader Haniyeh The international community is reeling from the shocking assassination of Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, who was killed in a targeted attack in Gaza earlier today. This act of violence has ignited tensions in the region, with Iran vowing to avenge Haniyeh's death. The Context Haniyeh was a pivotal figure in Palestinian politics, serving as the leader of Hamas since 2006. His assassination has dealt a severe blow to the already fragile peace process in the Middle East. The attack, which has been condemned by many international leaders, raises serious concerns about the potential for escalating violence. Iran's Response Iran, a staunch supporter of Hamas, has issued a strong condemnation of the attack, calling it "a cowardly act of terrorism." Iranian officials have vowed to "take revenge" for Haniyeh's death, warning of severe consequences for those responsible. This response has heightened fears of a regional conflict, as tensions between Iran and Israel have been on the rise in recent months. The Impact Haniyeh's assassination has significant implications for the future of the Palestinian cause and the wider Middle East. It is likely to further fuel the already volatile political landscape, potentially leading to increased instability and conflict. The Need for Peace In the face of this tragedy, it is crucial for all stakeholders to prioritize peace and stability. Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and prevent further violence must be intensified. International leaders must work together to condemn the assassination and call for a peaceful resolution to the ongoing conflict. Moving Forward This is a time for all parties involved to exercise restraint and engage in dialogue. The international community has a vital role to play in fostering a peaceful and sustainable solution to the complex challenges facing the region. #Iran #Hamas #Haniyeh #Palestine #MiddleEast #Peace #Conflict #InternationalRelations #Diplomacy #Security

Our latest with Erwin van Veen in The Clingendael Institute blog series “Iran in Transition.“ We discuss how the securitization of domestic politics is intertwining with and reinforcing the militarization of foreign policy: 🔹Iran’s strike against Israel went hand in hand with a campaign of repression against hijab-violations and IRGC-critics at home. This was no coincidence. 🔹The country’s ruling elites face two interrelated weaknesses: They have limited capabilities to fight a conventional war and suffer from a low level of legitimacy. Their response is shifting from strategic patience and a modicum of tolerance for social deviation to re-asserting themselves and striking back. 🔹In this process of securitization, Iranian leaders are becoming more risk-taking – not more risk-averse. They seem willing to sustain a higher level of tensions in the region with the threat of war and domestic repression going hand in hand. https://lnkd.in/dcHFdXtv