Ethos’ Post

With the outcome of the 2024 US election decided, US foreign and commercial policy is expected to shift rapidly. Last week, members and experts of the Asia Corporate Leadership Council met to explore the policy trajectory of the new US administration and the practical impact on MNCs in Asia. The session provided valuable insights to help executives revise or affirm their strategic assumptions for 2025 and beyond. Key discussion points included: • The new administration will move quickly. “Day 1” expectations will be driven by supporter demands and the reality of a single 4-year term. The best opportunity for legislative action is in the next two years. • Companies should be prepared for tariffs but how high, on what sectors and on whom remain open questions. • Likely to see negligible Climate efforts from the incoming administration. A withdraw (again) from the Paris agreement? • There is a possibility of a shift in trade patterns in Asia, with more intra-Asia and transiting through Asia. Expect a shutdown of “backdooring” to western markets but when and how?   Special thanks to our speakers Angela Mancini – Partner, Global Risk Analysis, Control Risks, John Gardner – Vice President, Public Policy, Committee for Economic Development, the public policy center of The Conference Board and David Hoffman – Senior Advisor of The Conference Board of Asia for sharing their insights, and to all our members and guests for joining this session.   For enquiries about upcoming programs from the Asia Corporate Leadership Council, please get in touch with David Basmajian. #uselections #asia #strategy #corporateleadership #leadership #corporateleaders

🇪🇺 The future of Europe’s prosperity is in our own hands! That was the conclusion of IMD’s CEO Roundtable, which brought together 75 CEOs, senior board members, and policymakers. Taking place just two days after Donald Trump’s election victory, participants were clear-eyed about the fork in the road that lies ahead. One path will see Europe’s global standing further diminished as Trump’s tariffs, expected climate change U-turn, and weakened commitment to European security destabilize the continent’s politics, economy, and business. The alternative path forward is marked by bold reforms as European leaders comprehend Trump’s election as an urgent call to action. This means reenergizing growth by (1) lowering the price of energy while accelerating the energy transition, (2) achieving a capital markets union, (3) investing in Europe’s defense and defense industry, and (4) leveraging Europe’s talent and proven innovation potential. Above all, it means speaking with one voice and putting Europe’s collective interests first. Or, as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni put it last week, “Don’t ask what the U.S. can do for you, ask what Europe should do for itself.” Judging from the sentiment in the room, Europe’s business leaders are clear about what is needed now and ready to step up. #imdimpact

📅 Happening Tomorrow, May 21st | join us for a conversation between The Brookings Institution's Xavier de Souza Briggs and Assistant Secretary of Commerce Alejandra Y. Castillo on how bolstering domestic industrial competitiveness can advance a stronger, more inclusive American economy. Register here : https://brook.gs/3wfpMK1 #EconomicDevelopment #Competitiveness #EconomicGrowth

Hussein Malik, head of global research, foresees U.S. policy taking center stage in 2025, adding complexity to market dynamics. http://spr.ly/6045vjaKR

https://lnkd.in/gB4tuXTd This Substack Post from Alan's Newsletter examines China's Third Plenum of the 20th Party Congress, which was anticipated to signal, possibly, significant economic reforms. However, the outcomes were largely seen as disappointing by analysts: 1.   Instead of emphasizing market-driven policies, the plenum reinforced party-state dominance in the economy. 2.   The Declaration dropped references to the "decisive role of the market" seen in previous plenums, indicating a more statist approach under Xi Jinping. 3.   The focus remains on advanced technologies and "new productive forces" rather than shifting towards greater domestic consumption. 4.   There's continued support for state-owned enterprises, with only lip service paid to creating a level playing field for private firms. 5.   The Plenum emphasized aligning economic policy with national security, centered around the security of the Communist Party. 6.   Trade partners are likely to remain skeptical, potentially leading to continued or increased trade tensions with at least the US and Europe. 7.   China's weak domestic consumption contributes to overcapacity problems and macro imbalances. 8.   Some experts suggest the market's expectations were too high, and that the leadership is taking a more incremental approach to reform. I suggest that negotiating voluntary export restraints (VERs) with China might help mitigate trade tensions in the absence of WTO involvement. Overall, the Plenum represents a missed opportunity for significant economic reforms, with potential consequences for global trade relations especially if there is a second Trump Administration. Comments are welcome

2025’s going to be a year full of change, and trade associations have a lot to look out for! Join this Kellen conversation on January 30, for insights into global political shifts and tips on how to continue positively influencing policy during changes in administrations: https://lnkd.in/gM4_gBu2 #AssociationManagement

The U.S. election results could reshape Southeast Asia's economy. Find out what this means for businesses and leaders in the region! https://lnkd.in/g9u_Fd2Q Visit www.theleap.id for daily insights from across key industries, where key players connect! #USElection #SEAEconomy

GPC's Sign of the Times, April2024 The End of Yesterday, The Future is Well Underway This year will see over 80 countries, representing half the world’s population, invite voters to choose their leaders. Eight of the ten most populous countries in the world – Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia, and the United States – will see nearly four billion people vote. In the West, National Populists are standing on the promise to voters that they can reverse the wrongs of the world by stopping the future. Their policies aim to stop the flows of people, investment, technology, clean energy and geopolitical power. They offer old fashioned societies and manufacturing jobs and oil and gas guzzling lives. They assert that somehow, they can make their nations great by going back to the past. However, the data shows that this era is long past, and whatever changes can be made, will be at the margins, and to the detriment of the people. Politicians in the East, populists and mainstream contenders, while many still prone to playing cultural differences, recognise the future is an opportunity and generally stand on platforms offering development. To understand the nature of the change, data on the key dimensions of yesterday's civilization, how these relate to the emerging one, and the implications for global flows need to be examined, directionally at the least. This month’s Sign of the Times draws on the work of the Capital as a Force for Good report and examines very briefly the data to see what happened to yesterday and what is happening today and what it might mean for the future. Read the full Sign here: https://lnkd.in/emDGs5M9 #gpcsignofthetimes #elections #capitalasaforceforgood

This edition delves into the U.S. presidential election's deep political divides and their impact on American democracy. It examines the economic reform debates ignited by the former ECB president and Europe's hesitance towards these ideas. It also sheds light on the increasing geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea and their implications for global stability. Additionally, it reveals corruption eroding Europe's integrity, the resurgence of Britain's new towns, and the strategies and policies making Boston one of the U.S.'s safest cities. It examines Japan's youth's declining interest in civil service, Intel's strategic hurdles, and growing public dissent against the IMF. Furthermore, it highlights the broad benefits of breast milk beyond infant nutrition. This edition not only inform; but also empowers you to be part of the conversation shaping our world.

How will the recent elections in the US and EU reshape global industries and policies? This is a must-attend webinar for association leaders and strategists. Join me! #associations #globalpolicy #elections2025 #tradeassociations