Francisco Feria’s Post

3Q24 Financial Markets Outlook is out! We’ve published our 3Q24 Financial Markets Outlook: “S&P 500 back at highs, taking off from other markets”. It incorporates the latest world economic forecasts from IMF and OECD, the most recent views from policy makers and main investors, financial markets data and our own views on equities, bonds, and interest rates. The S&P 500 continues to hit new highs, in a cycle that started at the end of 2022, concentrated in the magnificent 7. The remaining developed stock markets have been left behind and China does not solve its problems. Good macro support in the US (lower inflation with resilient growth and employment) reinforces the growth of corporate earnings, enabling a broader stock market appreciation. https://lnkd.in/d-bBnMW4 #financialmarkets; #marketsoutlook; #economy; #equities; #bonds; #interestrates; #centralbanks; #stockmarketvaluation; #bondmarketvaluation

3Q24 Financial Markets Outlook is out! We’ve published our 3Q24 Financial Markets Outlook: “S&P 500 back at highs, taking off from other markets”. It incorporates the latest world economic forecasts from IMF and OECD, the most recent views from policy makers and main investors, financial markets data and our own views on equities, bonds, and interest rates. The S&P 500 continues to hit new highs, in a cycle that started at the end of 2022, concentrated in the magnificent 7. The remaining developed stock markets have been left behind and China does not solve its problems. Good macro support in the US (lower inflation with resilient growth and employment) reinforces the growth of corporate earnings, enabling a broader stock market appreciation. https://lnkd.in/dicMGdjd #financialmarkets; #marketsoutlook; #economy; #equities; #bonds; #interestrates; #centralbanks; #stockmarketvaluation; #bondmarketvaluation

4Q24 Financial Markets Outlook is out! We’ve published our 4Q24 Financial Markets Outlook: “Interest rate cuts have started. What’s next?”. It incorporates the latest world economic forecasts from IMF and OECD, the most recent views from policy makers and main investors, financial markets data and our own views on equities, bonds, and interest rates. After two years of hiking, the Fed began to lower interest rates, following the ECB. The most recent indicators of US economic growth have shown some decline. Europe remains practically stagnant, and China growth is below the authorities’ forecasts. Inflation continues to fall in the US and Eurozone and is already below 2% in some European countries. The US, European and Japanese stock indices are at peak levels, with a wide dispersion in performance across sectors and individual securities. Stock market valuations are above the historical average, especially in the US. In this context, the focus is on lower interest rates, market valuations, earnings per share growth, fund flows, and geopolitical risks. https://lnkd.in/d2C7U8Jm #financialmarkets; #marketsoutlook; #economy; #equities; #bonds; #interestrates; #centralbanks; #stockmarketvaluation; #bondmarketvaluation; #earningsgrowth; #fundflows; #geopoliticalrisks; #assetsrotation

4Q24 Financial Markets Outlook is out! We’ve published our 4Q24 Financial Markets Outlook: “Interest rate cuts have started. What’s next?”. It incorporates the latest world economic forecasts from IMF and OECD, the most recent views from policy makers and main investors, financial markets data and our own views on equities, bonds, and interest rates. After two years of hiking, the Fed began to lower interest rates, following the ECB. The most recent indicators of US economic growth have shown some decline. Europe remains practically stagnant, and China growth is below the authorities’ forecasts. Inflation continues to fall in the US and Eurozone and is already below 2% in some European countries. The US, European and Japanese stock indices are at peak levels, with a wide dispersion in performance across sectors and individual securities. Stock market valuations are above the historical average, especially in the US. In this context, the focus is on lower interest rates, market valuations, earnings per share growth, fund flows, and geopolitical risks. https://lnkd.in/dMFNm7Wq #financialmarkets; #marketsoutlook; #economy; #equities; #bonds; #interestrates; #centralbanks; #stockmarketvaluation; #bondmarketvaluation; #earningsgrowth; #fundflows; #geopoliticalrisks; #assetsrotation

4Q24 Financial Markets Outlook is out! We’ve published our 4Q24 Financial Markets Outlook: “Interest rate cuts have started. What’s next?”. It incorporates the latest world economic forecasts from IMF and OECD, the most recent views from policy makers and main investors, financial markets data and our own views on equities, bonds, and interest rates. After two years of hiking, the Fed began to lower interest rates, following the ECB. The most recent indicators of US economic growth have shown some decline. Europe remains practically stagnant, and China growth is below the authorities’ forecasts. Inflation continues to fall in the US and Eurozone and is already below 2% in some European countries. The US, European and Japanese stock indices are at peak levels, with a wide dispersion in performance across sectors and individual securities. Stock market valuations are above the historical average, especially in the US. In this context, the focus is on lower interest rates, market valuations, earnings per share growth, fund flows, and geopolitical risks. https://lnkd.in/dvM6c4Gm #financialmarkets; #marketsoutlook; #economy; #equities; #bonds; #interestrates; #centralbanks; #stockmarketvaluation; #bondmarketvaluation; #earningsgrowth; #fundflows; #geopoliticalrisks; #assetsrotation

2Q24 Financial Markets Outlook is out! We’ve published our 2Q24 Financial Markets Outlook: “Playing cat and mouse with inflation and interest rates on a war board”. It incorporates the latest world economic forecasts from the IMF, the most recent views from policy makers and main investors, financial markets data and our own views on equities, bonds, and interest rates. The attention of analysts and investors is increasingly focused on the trajectories of declines in inflation and official interest rates, especially in the US, which shows greater rigidity. The biggest uncertainties continue to focus on developments in China, the US elections and the two ongoing wars. https://lnkd.in/dW3vv9NM #financialmarketsoutlook; #marketsoutlook; #globaleconomy; #equities; #bonds; #interestrates; #centralbanks; #stockmarketvaluation; #bondmarketvaluation; #inflation; #warsandgrowth 

📈 2024 Capital Markets Outlook: A Mix of Caution and Resilience As we move into 2024, the global capital markets are navigating a landscape shaped by economic resilience and caution. After a tumultuous period in 2023 marked by a liquidity crunch in US banks, there's a sense of stabilization. In the debt markets, we've seen healthy issuance activity with tightening credit spreads, despite a notable increase in interest rates over the last 18 months. However, the global equity market tells a different story, with a more subdued level of new equity issuances, as investors await clearer signs of economic stability. The bear steepening of the US yield curve, where long-term rates rise faster than short-term rates, indicates that high interest rates might persist. This, coupled with rising geopolitical tensions, could dampen risk appetites in the equity markets. Yet, there are glimmers of optimism. The US economy, the backbone of the world’s largest capital markets, has shown strength with a robust jobs report and nearly 5% GDP growth in Q3 of 2023. Should this stability continue and the Federal Reserve conclude its monetary tightening, we could see a renewed vigor in capital markets. As we look ahead, the question remains: Will the resilience in economic growth and potential easing of monetary policies rejuvenate the capital markets in 2024? #CapitalMarkets #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentTrends #FinanceNews 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘳 : 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘮𝘰𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘳 𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘰𝘳𝘴𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘴.

🚨 Financial Pulse: A Detailed Look at the U.S. Financial System's Liquidity🚨 The U.S. financial landscape remains a mix of stability and caution. Here’s what our in-depth analysis reveals: 🔹 Fed Balance Sheet: Gradual asset reduction suggests tightening liquidity. Weekly reserve increases provide short-term support, but the overall trend points to a cautious outlook. 🔹 Dealers Holdings of UST: A preference for short-term maturities indicates a focus on liquidity. Stable short-term yields, but potential pressure on long-term yields. 🔹 Money Market Fund Assets: Significant growth over the past quarter highlights a strong liquidity buffer. Investors are preparing for potential market volatility. 🔹 Overnight Rates and Volumes: Consistent rate spreads suggest stable short-term liquidity. Mixed trends in volumes indicate cautious market behavior but sufficient overall liquidity. 🔹 Swap Spreads: Increased spreads suggest higher risk premiums. Supportive for short-term bonds but challenging for long-term bonds and equity outlooks. 🔹 Currency Basis: Favorable conditions in Japan and the Eurozone suggest regional opportunities. Stable conditions in the UK and U.S. indicate balanced prospects. In the bond arena, we see a generally favorable environment, especially in the short end of the curve. However, a discernible steepening of swap spreads suggests rising yields and potentially lower prices for longer-term bonds. Equities are operating in a supportive milieu due to ample market liquidity. Yet, increasing swap spreads for longer durations may signal future cost of capital increases, potentially tempering equity valuations. Overall, the financial system is robust but shows signs of risk aversion, particularly for long-term investments. Investors should monitor these trends to adjust their portfolio strategies accordingly. Source: Bloomberg, Herculis Group #WealthManagement #Finance #MarketAnalysis #Liquidity #InvestmentStrategy

The fixed-income mid-year outlook from Bernstein reveals favorable conditions for bond investors despite recent market volatility. Get the details here:

The fixed-income mid-year outlook from Bernstein reveals favorable conditions for bond investors despite recent market volatility. Get the details here: