Luis Feria’s Post

4Q24 Financial Markets Outlook is out! We’ve published our 4Q24 Financial Markets Outlook: “Interest rate cuts have started. What’s next?”. It incorporates the latest world economic forecasts from IMF and OECD, the most recent views from policy makers and main investors, financial markets data and our own views on equities, bonds, and interest rates. After two years of hiking, the Fed began to lower interest rates, following the ECB. The most recent indicators of US economic growth have shown some decline. Europe remains practically stagnant, and China growth is below the authorities’ forecasts. Inflation continues to fall in the US and Eurozone and is already below 2% in some European countries. The US, European and Japanese stock indices are at peak levels, with a wide dispersion in performance across sectors and individual securities. Stock market valuations are above the historical average, especially in the US. In this context, the focus is on lower interest rates, market valuations, earnings per share growth, fund flows, and geopolitical risks. https://lnkd.in/dMFNm7Wq #financialmarkets; #marketsoutlook; #economy; #equities; #bonds; #interestrates; #centralbanks; #stockmarketvaluation; #bondmarketvaluation; #earningsgrowth; #fundflows; #geopoliticalrisks; #assetsrotation

4Q24 Financial Markets Outlook is out! We’ve published our 4Q24 Financial Markets Outlook: “Interest rate cuts have started. What’s next?”. It incorporates the latest world economic forecasts from IMF and OECD, the most recent views from policy makers and main investors, financial markets data and our own views on equities, bonds, and interest rates. After two years of hiking, the Fed began to lower interest rates, following the ECB. The most recent indicators of US economic growth have shown some decline. Europe remains practically stagnant, and China growth is below the authorities’ forecasts. Inflation continues to fall in the US and Eurozone and is already below 2% in some European countries. The US, European and Japanese stock indices are at peak levels, with a wide dispersion in performance across sectors and individual securities. Stock market valuations are above the historical average, especially in the US. In this context, the focus is on lower interest rates, market valuations, earnings per share growth, fund flows, and geopolitical risks. https://lnkd.in/dvM6c4Gm #financialmarkets; #marketsoutlook; #economy; #equities; #bonds; #interestrates; #centralbanks; #stockmarketvaluation; #bondmarketvaluation; #earningsgrowth; #fundflows; #geopoliticalrisks; #assetsrotation

3Q24 Financial Markets Outlook is out! We’ve published our 3Q24 Financial Markets Outlook: “S&P 500 back at highs, taking off from other markets”. It incorporates the latest world economic forecasts from IMF and OECD, the most recent views from policy makers and main investors, financial markets data and our own views on equities, bonds, and interest rates. The S&P 500 continues to hit new highs, in a cycle that started at the end of 2022, concentrated in the magnificent 7. The remaining developed stock markets have been left behind and China does not solve its problems. Good macro support in the US (lower inflation with resilient growth and employment) reinforces the growth of earnings, enabling a broader stock market appreciation. https://lnkd.in/dJW7C5Rd #financialmarkets; #marketsoutlook; #economy; #equities; #bonds; #interestrates; #centralbanks; #stockmarketvaluation; #bondmarketvaluation

3Q24 Financial Markets Outlook is out! We’ve published our 3Q24 Financial Markets Outlook: “S&P 500 back at highs, taking off from other markets”. It incorporates the latest world economic forecasts from IMF and OECD, the most recent views from policy makers and main investors, financial markets data and our own views on equities, bonds, and interest rates. The S&P 500 continues to hit new highs, in a cycle that started at the end of 2022, concentrated in the magnificent 7. The remaining developed stock markets have been left behind and China does not solve its problems. Good macro support in the US (lower inflation with resilient growth and employment) reinforces the growth of corporate earnings, enabling a broader stock market appreciation. https://lnkd.in/d-bBnMW4 #financialmarkets; #marketsoutlook; #economy; #equities; #bonds; #interestrates; #centralbanks; #stockmarketvaluation; #bondmarketvaluation

3Q24 Financial Markets Outlook is out! We’ve published our 3Q24 Financial Markets Outlook: “S&P 500 back at highs, taking off from other markets”. It incorporates the latest world economic forecasts from IMF and OECD, the most recent views from policy makers and main investors, financial markets data and our own views on equities, bonds, and interest rates. The S&P 500 continues to hit new highs, in a cycle that started at the end of 2022, concentrated in the magnificent 7. The remaining developed stock markets have been left behind and China does not solve its problems. Good macro support in the US (lower inflation with resilient growth and employment) reinforces the growth of corporate earnings, enabling a broader stock market appreciation. https://lnkd.in/dicMGdjd #financialmarkets; #marketsoutlook; #economy; #equities; #bonds; #interestrates; #centralbanks; #stockmarketvaluation; #bondmarketvaluation

2Q24 Financial Markets Outlook is out! We’ve published our 2Q24 Financial Markets Outlook: “Playing cat and mouse with inflation and interest rates on a war board”. It incorporates the latest world economic forecasts from the IMF, the most recent views from policy makers and main investors, financial markets data and our own views on equities, bonds, and interest rates. The attention of analysts and investors is increasingly focused on the trajectories of declines in inflation and official interest rates, especially in the US, which shows greater rigidity. The biggest uncertainties continue to focus on developments in China, the US elections and the two ongoing wars. https://lnkd.in/dW3vv9NM #financialmarketsoutlook; #marketsoutlook; #globaleconomy; #equities; #bonds; #interestrates; #centralbanks; #stockmarketvaluation; #bondmarketvaluation; #inflation; #warsandgrowth 

2Q24 Financial Markets Outlook is out! We’ve published our 2Q24 Financial Markets Outlook: “Playing cat and mouse with inflation and interest rates on a war board”. It incorporates the latest world economic forecasts from the IMF, the most recent views from policy makers and main investors, financial markets data and our own views on equities, bonds, and interest rates. The attention of analysts and investors is increasingly focused on the trajectories of declines in inflation and official interest rates, especially in the US, which shows greater rigidity. The biggest uncertainties continue to focus on developments in China, the US elections and the two ongoing wars. https://lnkd.in/dvwuW-5Q #financialmarketsoutlook; #marketsoutlook; #globaleconomy; #equities; #bonds; #interestrates; #centralbanks; #stockmarketvaluation; #bondmarketvaluation; #inflation; #warsandgrowth 

2Q24 Financial Markets Outlook is out! We’ve published our 2Q24 Financial Markets Outlook: “Playing cat and mouse with inflation and interest rates on a war board”. It incorporates the latest world economic forecasts from the IMF, the most recent views from policy makers and main investors, financial markets data and our own views on equities, bonds, and interest rates. The attention of analysts and investors is increasingly focused on the trajectories of declines in inflation and official interest rates, especially in the US, which shows greater rigidity. The biggest uncertainties continue to focus on developments in China, the US elections and the two ongoing wars. https://lnkd.in/disNnR2R #financialmarketsoutlook; #marketsoutlook; #globaleconomy; #equities; #bonds; #interestrates; #centralbanks; #stockmarketvaluation; #bondmarketvaluation; #inflation; #warsandgrowth 

Financial Espresso #7 ☕💼 26/03/2024 - APPLIED CONCEPTS 🔍Understand the ECB and FED monetary policies in 3 min ➡ Here is what you need to know, and I will explain you how the trends are impacting the markets. The monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are crucial for several reasons, and their decisions can significantly impact financial markets and the broader economy: Importance of the Monetary Policies: 📉Interest Rates: These central banks control key interest rates, which influence borrowing costs throughout the economy. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and consumers to borrow money, encouraging investment and spending, which can boost economic growth. Conversely, raising rates discourages borrowing and slows economic activity, aiming to curb inflation. 📈Inflation Control: A primary goal of central banks is to maintain price stability by managing inflation. High inflation lower the purchasing power and discourages investment. The Fed and ECB target specific inflation rates (usually around 2%) and adjust their policies to achieve them. 🏦Financial Stability: Central banks also aim to promote financial stability by influencing the availability of credit and managing risks within the financial system. They can use various tools to prevent excessive borrowing and asset bubbles that could lead to financial crises. Monetary Market Trends this Month (March 2024): 🔄Expected shift: This month has been a period of potential change for monetary policy, particularly in the US. The Fed left interest rates unchanged but signaled a potentially dovish shift in their forecasts, hinting at possible rate cuts later in 2024. The ECB, on the other hand, maintained current rates, but higher-than-expected inflation data might limit their ability to loosen policy in the near future. Impact of Monetary Policy Trends: 📈Equity Markets: The Fed's dovish stance last week contributed to the positive trend in equity markets, especially in North America. Investors perceived a more accommodative monetary policy as positive for stock prices. 🔽Bond Yields: Bond yields, which move inversely to bond prices, could be affected. The Fed's dovish signals might lead to lower bond yields as investors anticipate future rate cuts. 💱Exchange Rates: Monetary policy decisions can influence exchange rates. The Fed's and ECB's diverging stances could impact the value of the US dollar compared to the Euro. 🚀Economic Growth: The ultimate aim is to foster economic growth and stability. The Fed's potential future rate cuts could stimulate borrowing and spending, potentially boosting growth. However, this needs to be balanced with managing inflation. 🔥 Dive into today's crucial market events and understand the markets with Financial Espresso. Stay ahead with concise insights on the forces shaping our economic and financial landscapes. #FinancialEspresso #MarketTrends #GlobalEconomy #BCE #FED

US Market Update - June 24, 2024 As we enter the final week of June, which also concludes the second quarter of 2024, market activity is expected to be relatively subdued. The primary focus this week will be on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, followed by the Federal Monetary Policy Report on Friday. Given the scarcity of major market-moving news, we anticipate low trading volumes and volatility. Monetary Policy Developments Monetary policy easing is becoming more prevalent, especially in light of the US Federal Reserve's current stance. Earlier this month, the European Central Bank (ECB) implemented an initial 25-basis point cut to its key interest rate. Although the ECB indicated a cautious approach to further rate cuts, the global economic slowdown is likely to necessitate at least two more cuts this year. In a recent statement, the ECB highlighted several challenges facing Eurozone countries, including significant fiscal burdens due to ageing populations, increased defence spending, and climate change. These factors underscore the urgency for these countries to reduce their high debt levels. Market Outlook With the Fed's inaction, other central banks are taking measures to stimulate their economies. This trend of monetary easing could have broader implications for global financial markets, particularly in terms of currency valuations and capital flows. Investors should monitor the upcoming PCE data and the Federal Monetary Policy Report for any signals that might influence market directions. As always, maintaining a strategic approach and considering the broader economic context will be crucial for navigating the current market environment. Key Points to Watch This Week: - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index:** Key inflation data to be released this week. - Federal Monetary Policy Report:** Scheduled for Friday, providing insights into the Fed's economic outlook and policy direction. - ECB's Monetary Easing:** Watch for further developments and their impact on global markets. Given the expected low market activity, traders and investors might find fewer opportunities for significant moves. However, staying informed and prepared for any unexpected developments remains essential. Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and investments should be made based on individual risk tolerance and financial goals. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions. #USMarketUpdate #Fed #PCE #MonetaryPolicy #ECB #InterestRates #GlobalEconomy #FinancialMarkets #BringTheBull #ZMC