GR Japan’s Post

As expected, an hour or so ago, the new Japan PM Ishiba formally dissolved the Diet (our legislative body like your Parliament, Congress, National Assembly), triggering a national election on Oct. 27 for the 465 seats to be contested in the more powerful Lower House. Media will call it a "snap" election, not because it is a surprise to anyone, but only because it is formally occurring about one year before the 4-year term of the Lower House is to expire late next year, which in Japanese politics rarely reaches its formal term before the PM calls for an endorsement from the Japanese electorate. The attached link will take you to a quite accurate overview of the mechanics of the election and the current seats pre-election held by the LDP, its current partner, the Buddhist pacifist-leaning soft-on-CCP China Komeito, and the two more significant opposition parties, CDP and Ishin, the gradually disappearing Communist Party and a hand full of fringe parties. For those interested, I will do a more detailed look later at what levels of Lower House control leads to a smooth-running legislature and where the yellow flashing and red lights are. For the LDP, but more importantly for PM Ishiba, who will do everything possible to define the definition of "success" for the media echo chamber to be as low as possible. https://lnkd.in/gRyNvwT2

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is preparing for a leadership election on Friday to decide the successor to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. This decision is crucial as the new LDP leader will also become Japan’s next Prime Minister, given the party's majority in the parliament.   The contest, featuring nine candidates, is expected to be highly competitive, with no single candidate currently expected to secure a clear majority in the initial round of voting.   In this election, 736 votes will be cast in total, with 368 coming from LDP lawmakers and another 368 from the party's rank-and-file members. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the top two contenders will advance to a runoff later in the day.   The balance of power in the second round shifts slightly, as grassroots votes are reduced to one per each of the LDP’s 47 prefectural chapters. This arrangement gives more sway to the lawmakers. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gigW3UH2 #japan #kishida #ldp

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has announced to dissolve the lower house of parliament just 8 days into his tenure, marking the quickest dissolution by a postwar leader. This decision sets the stage for a snap election on 27 Oct, as Ishiba seeks to solidify his government amidst declining public support following a political fundraising scandal involving the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (#LDP). Campaigning will kick off on 15 Oct, with all 465 lower house members defending their seats. Ishiba said that 6 LDP members penalized for the fundraising scandal will not receive the party's endorsements; however, a staggering 41 of the 43 implicated members have sought official backing. Will the LDP-#Komeito coalition secure a majority, or can the largest opposition party, Constitutional Democratic Party (#CDP) make significant gains? Follow GR Japan for updates on this rapidly developing political landscape and the implications for Japan's future! https://lnkd.in/gYZeKchk #GRJapan #GovernmentRelations #GRExpertlyHandled #PublicPolicy #JapanElection

Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has won the leadership election for the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (#CDPJ) yesterday. This victory sets the stage for a potential snap election following the #LDP's presidential contest this Friday. Meanwhile, the LDP hosted an online debate featuring its presidential candidates over the weekend. Shinjiro Koizumi is leading the charge with promises of reform among the fellow Diet members, even as questions about his diplomatic experience linger. The LDP election likely heading to a runoff, and no candidate is expected to clinch a majority in the first round. Key players like Koizumi, Shigeru Ishiba, and Sanae Takaichi are neck and neck, with many Diet members still on the fence. Keep an eye out for more updates from GR Japan on this evolving political landscape! https://lnkd.in/ghu6qUAw #GRJapan #GovernmentRelations #GRExpertlyHandled #PublicPolicyinJapan #LDPElection

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is stepping down, which means the Japanese political environment is in flux. With elections on September 27, the next Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader will shape the direction of the country. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated the political stage for decades and its leader effectively becomes Japan’s next prime minister, so the election of the next party leader holds enormous significance. Candidates’ varied approaches to economic, energy, and foreign policy will have a great impact on Japan’s business environment alongside two key voter issues: dismissal regulations and separate surnames for married couples. For a detailed look at candidate profiles and analysis on how these policies and voter issues impact businesses, read EGA Japan’s election primer here: https://lnkd.in/exPnhB96

Japan's government resigns ahead of regular prime ministerial election Divisions within the opposition are still expected to secure Shigeru Ishiba’s election as prime minister and allow him to form a minority government TOKYO, November 11/ The Japanese government, led by Shigeru Ishiba, has resigned ahead of a parliamentary vote on the prime minister’s candidacy during a special session, following early elections held on October 27. The election results caused the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito Party to lose their majority in the key lower house of parliament. However, divisions within the opposition are still expected to secure Ishiba’s election as prime minister and allow him to form a minority government. If elected, Ishiba will within a day form his second government. The cabinet’s composition is expected to remain virtually unchanged, except for ministers who were not re-elected in the October 27 election. Keisuke Suzuki will become Minister of Justice, while Taku Eto will head the Ministry of Agriculture. The post of Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism is expected to go to Hiromasa Nakano. The composition of the new government will be approved by Emperor Naruhito in the afternoon. Ishiba was elected leader of the then-ruling LDP on September 27. On October 1, he assumed office and promptly dissolved the lower house of parliament, scheduling early elections for October 27 to seek popular approval. The election led to the LDP and Komeito losing their majority. #business #finance #financialservices

Kyodo News survey suggests that Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party may lose three lower house seats in upcoming by-elections on April 28, potentially impacting Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's already unpopular leadership. The by-elections come at a time when the LDP is under scrutiny for income reporting issues and slush funds within its factions. The opposition is expected to secure victories in Tokyo and Nagasaki constituencies, with the Shimane district being the focus for the LDP. Failure to secure victory in Shimane could weaken Kishida's position, leading to potential challenges to his leadership. Public trust in the LDP has been eroded, with Kishida and opposition leader Kenta Izumi both addressing the need for political reform in the wake of the scandal. #AsiaOperations #PoliticsandElections #Japan Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/gjuWMzFv

A Kyodo News survey suggests that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may lose three seats in the House of Representatives in upcoming by-elections, possibly impacting Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who is already facing public criticism. The by-elections come as the LDP faces scrutiny over income disclosure issues, with observers predicting opposition party wins in Tokyo and Nagasaki, while the race in Shimane could sway Kishida's political position. Kishida's Cabinet approval ratings are at a low, and the public is considering the recent political funds scandal when deciding how to vote. #AsiaOperations #PoliticsandElections #Japan Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/g6Ru3K-v

📊🇬🇧 The British Conservative Party is at risk of winning fewer than 60 seats in the upcoming parliamentary elections, a historic low. According to a Savanta poll for The Telegraph, Rishi Sunak's party could win only 53 seats in the House of Commons. Labour, according to the poll, can expect to win 516 seats, which would be a historic record. The survey also suggests that the opposition Liberal Democrats will win 50 seats, while the Scottish National Party (SNP) may suffer an electoral collapse as a result of the election, winning only 8 seats compared to the current 48 (based on the 2019 results). • At the same time, YouGov gave the Conservatives 108 seats and the Liberal Democrats 67. As you can see, different sociological centres give very different estimates. • More in Common generally predicts 155 for the Conservatives and 49 seats for the Lib Dems, respectively. While it is too early to say for sure that the Conservatives will win fewer than 100 seats in the July 4 election, the main question is not whether they will lose, but how painful this defeat will be for Rishi Sunak and his party in the strategic perspective. 🇪🇺🇺🇦🇬🇧 • Glib Ostapenko •