IPPR’s Post

Adding to my immediate previous post, the link should take you to Survation's 3 June MRP-based analysis. Since 2017 MRP, which assessed the probable winner in every individual constituency, has proved itself to be a pretty reliable basis for forecasting UK election outcomes. Noting that this particular survey was done four weeks before the election itself and much can change in the intervening period it should nevertheless be taken seriously. https://lnkd.in/dafzzCvM

Please make a note of the following text: The results of the UK General Election have revealed two main points. First, the Labour Party has achieved a significant victory, with a collapse in voter support for the Conservatives resulting in the loss of seats for several former cabinet members. Secondly, while this is a historic win for Labour, it also serves as a cautionary note for the major established parties in Britain and elsewhere. This is evident in the low voter turnout (down by around 7 percentage points), the support gained by several small parties, and the impact of some independent candidates. Now all attention is turning to the Labour Party's first budget in September/October. Additionally thoughts…. The outcome of the UK election holds significant importance. Labour has managed to secure a majority comparable to that of 1997, with a seat swing twice as large as in 2019. However, upon closer inspection, it appears to be more of a decisive setback for the Conservative party rather than a resounding victory for Labour. In addition to losing votes to Labour, the Conservatives have also witnessed a decrease in support for the insurgent Reform party. Despite this strong majority, Labour can anticipate a period of relative parliamentary stability. This situation may lead to short-term fiscal consolidation and active supply reform, both of which could bolster growth in the latter half of the parliamentary term. It's essential to exercise caution, as the seat swing might exaggerate the extent of enduring support, particularly since there has been limited proactive endorsement from the wider electorate. The 'Reform surge' is a vital theme of the night, reflecting the ongoing changes in UK parliamentary politics that have been accelerating since the early 2010s. The performance of Labour during the upcoming parliamentary term is of utmost importance. A strong performance by Labour at this juncture could signal the beginning of a more enduring change. However, if Labour fails to present a compelling case, which seems quite likely given the severity of the challenges they face, then the outcomes over the next five years become increasingly uncertain.

Some interesting qual findings from Survation Ltd on Labour's first 100 days in power. After a good start it's clear the winter fuel fiasco and "gift gate" cut through with voters. Though Labour also have goodwill in the bank. What strikes me about both "winter fuel" and "gift gate" is that - for me - they represented failures of comms leadership. Rachel Reeves £22 billion black hole intervention was - at best - a non credible intervention. It came out of the blue, it included no consultation or risk assessment. It didn't simply harm the party's poll ratings, it also affected consumer / business confidence, as ONS data has shown. Giftgate was another failure of leadership. Indeed as it played out it looked like a classic of poor crisis comms management. For weeks Labour was simply unable to kill the story or get ahead of it. But I don't think the problem lay in comms / press office management. The issues were clearly up the decision tree. Starmer's first error looks to have been his decision to put a mandarin civil servant in charge of the news grid. Sorry, loads of respect for civil servants, but no... never. DON'T DO THIS. Every high profile public facing org needs a well run press operation. Why? Because the easiest negative story in the world that the media love to run is: "Incompetence" Journalists rarely have a grasp of policy detail, but a dysfunctional media / comms operation can be spotted from Mars. Don't make it easy for them by... welll.... looking incompetent. So sort your reactive stuff out. The other thing (and this is really comms 101 - it beggars belief they got it wrong) is: "the Grid" - or basically your short term news management. Your forward diary of proactive stuff. News never stops, deadlines run constantly. Just because YOU have nothing newsy to say, it doesn't mean the media won't make up something newsy to say about you, or your brand. The answer is to fill the news vacuum, literally pack it out to the rafters with stories, on your terms. "The Grid" is your friend here. Finally, it's worth noting that the root cause of a misfiring comms operation is not always to be found within the comms team itself. Instead it is likely to be located further up the command chain [ahem Sue Grey? Keir Starmer?]. Why does all this matter for Labour? Well it all comes down to that word again: "Competence" More than anything else, this Labour government thinks competence matters - to the point where they almost elevate it to the status of being a value [ "competence" is a skillset, not a value. No-one mounts the barricades in defence of "competence", but that's another story.] But given the significance this government places on competence it should be obvious why this whole saga matters. If Labour lose their reputation for competence, what do they have?

Labour look increasingly likely to win the next general election, and with a large majority. This MoneyWeek article looks at what impact a Labour supermajority might have on financial markets #financialmarkets #financialnews #GeneralElection #LabourParty #marketnews #UKEconomy #personalfinance https://lnkd.in/erYfHQ_g

Inside the Labour Growth Group: I wrote about this new backbench caucus and what it could mean for the government and its growth mission going forward for New Statesman https://lnkd.in/e6w7tEzz

🔴 Our latest polling for The i paper suggests Labour support has declined since the general election due to the winter fuel payment cut and the freebies row.   📉 48% of voters said their opinion of Labour since the general election has worsened, and the Prime Minister's approval rating has plummeted to minus 25%.   🗳️ The Conservatives are now just five points behind Labour on 30% in the current national voting intention.   To read the full article head to ➡️ https://lnkd.in/eBG8eiJ6 #Polling #PublicAttitudes #MarketResearch #PublicAffairs

Labour’s decisive majority win in the General Election is likely to be initially taken positively by markets, according to our CIO, Justin Onuekwusi. “The UK election has played out as expected and has consolidated our positive view,” he says. “The clarity of outcome and resultant policy certainty going forward should lead to confidence in the growth outlook for the UK economy. The new Labour government may be seen as a boon for broader trade relations though any planned policy changes are likely to take some time to implement, so there is unlikely to be any immediate economic effects from this election result.” The election outcome may result in a short-term uplift, but Justin believes there are longer-term reasons to favour UK companies – of all sizes – post election.

All the post speech analysis you need from today's budget via Instinctif's podcast. Listen to the expert thoughts of our panel which includes former Labour politicians Tom Harris and John Howarth, as well as former Bank of England economist Rob Thomas. #budget2024

Five signals that will show whether Labour is really governing in a different way The autumn presents a unique moment for the new government. Hannah White There is a still lack of clarity about exactly how the centre of government will go about delivering Labour's 'missions'. As parliament returns following the summer recess, Hannah White highlights five major autumn signals that will show whether Labour is really going to do government differently Read on at https://lnkd.in/djUg4-_9

The 2024 UK general election has seen Keir Starmer and the Labour Party secure a resounding majority. This victory has particularly transformed the political landscape in the North East, which is now overwhelmingly dominated by Labour MPs. This of course follows the recent election of Labour's Kim McGuinness as Mayor of The North East Combined Authority. But what does this mean for #SMEs, #sustainability and the #NorthEast region? I've written some thoughts about it here: https://lnkd.in/eWqusuTX