Thrilled to announce that the result of years of research with my former PhD supervisor has been pubished by LSE's European Institute in its EiQ discussion paper series! 🎉
Access the paper either through the post below or here: https://lnkd.in/dvQxVH8J
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In the analysis, we are interested to understand how ideological narratives, political and cultural inclinations are changing in industrialized countries, specifically detecting any stronger ideological convergence for Euro Area countries given the ''ever closer union''.
We ask: is the evolution of ideological narratives in member states of the Euro Area sufficiently coherent to prevent disruptions?
To answer the question, we embark on an analysis of party salience in more than 40 years of elections for industrialized countries and statistically relate them with macroeconomic variables (GDP growth, inflation, Debt/GDP). We create an ideological field in which we place countries based on their political and cultural inclinations, classifying societies in their degree of openness.
We find that ideological narratives have converged, especially since Maastricht, and are sufficiently coherent to prevent large-scale disruptions. The Euro Area is highly centrist, which makes the cooperation between member states easier. Thus, the “ever closer” institutional framework set up for the management of the monetary union has contributed to greater political coherence inside the Euro Area, while ideological convergence outside the Euro Area has been significantly weaker.
We also found that ideological narratives matter for economic performance measured by the Maastricht criteria of price stability and debt sustainability – and inversely. France and Germany have adopted two opposing ideological narratives, but they are compatible with the economic objectives of the Euro Area institutions. However, the French narrative is more supportive of economic growth. This underlines the importance of the Franco-German axis for political compromises in the governance of the Euro Area.
We finally noticed that all member states have become ideologically more closed, that is less liberal, while in aggregate they have also moved to the left.
A new paper has been published under the EI's EIQ discussion paper series authored by Stefan Collignon and Davide Orsitto.
"The coherence of ideological narratives in the Euro Area is a necessary condition for the sustainability of the monetary union. Narratives shape political preferences and if they diverge persistently, cooperation between member states becomes impossible. We measure the evolution of ideological narratives in member states of the Euro Area over half a century in a two-dimensional space."
📎 Access the full paper here: https://lnkd.in/ehihBTwq
#LSEEI #Research #Europe #Ideology
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