Marvie Basilan’s Post

Sounds about right. I mean most Koreans, Japanese would prefer neutrality if a Taiwan conflict happened to. But they and the Filipinos may not have that choice - their leaders by taking prudent or imprudent steps to secure their own airspace, territorial zones in the event of a conflict may already have put their country on a path to conflict. And the alternative, de-arm and hope that China really only wants to unify Taiwan and disbands its navy after that - is silly. On the SCS, Marcos Jr enjoys better support. "Most Filipinos, however, would prefer it if their leaders prioritised the home front. About 75 per cent of survey respondents said the government should focus on resolving domestic issues rather than actively participating in international affairs. Should Philippine interests “come into conflict” with those of other countries, 65 per cent of respondents said national interests should come first. However, 77 per cent felt cooperation with other nations was important in resolving problems faced by the Philippines." None of this is surprising. "Duterte has castigated Marcos for bringing the Philippines close to war with China through his more confrontational approach to the territorial dispute." Duterte's rhetoric is also not surprising. The tough guy who caved to China in exchange for investments that never materialised is trying to resurrect his family's tough image again. His kryptonite is China. Makes you think if China has the equivalent of a pee pee tape.

My latest piece on territorial swaps between India and China published by Kishore Mahbubani and the Asian Peace Program. “More so than the South China Sea, it is the resolution of the Sino-Indian boundary dispute that will determine if “Asia” will be a term that geopolitical experts will use as a reference of power, or to signify an arena of unending conflict and violence in the emerging world order.” https://lnkd.in/gUXbZsVx

My most recent Inside Policy article for Macdonald-Laurier Institute on "#Russian neo-imperialism – Defence of #Ukraine is a bellwether for the success or failure of the international rule of law" "An international order based on rule of law is not only an order that benefits Western countries. It’s a system that ensures small, medium, and great powers are obliged to follow an agreed-upon international law about where borders are, how to behave with neighbours, and the consequences if you do not follow international law. This is not a Western or Eastern value. This is not a Global North value or #GlobalSouth value. This is a value that all states have a deep-seated national interest in." Txs to Dr Scott N Romaniuk The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) OSW – Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich / Centre for Eastern Studies, Poland Roberto Rabel University of Warsaw for the seeds for this thought process https://lnkd.in/gpFr9GH2

How much of China’s behavior in the #EastChinaSea is attributable to Xi Jinping? To what extent have Sino-Japanese action-reaction dynamics been at play? How important have the hydrocarbon deposits that originally touched off the dispute been? Andrew Chubb from Asia Society Policy Institute's #CenterforChinaAnalysis answers these questions using a newly compiled dataset of both Chinese and Japanese patterns of behavior from the origins of the dispute in the 1970s to the Xi era. Chubb’s research reveals six key dynamics ⬇️ 1️⃣ The East China Sea dispute began over oil and gas resources but switched toward a contest for military and administrative control as China rapidly expanded its naval and coast guard presence in the mid-2000s. 2️⃣ China’s policy was already trending in an increasingly assertive direction well before Xi took power. China’s gray-zone assertiveness dates back to the mid-1990s, while coercive methods started in the mid-2000s. The key change Xi has overseen is China’s increasingly militarized—but also regularized—presence in the disputed area. 3️⃣ Japan has triggered several acute periods of tension with provocative moves, but China has driven the long-term arc with its shifts, from “shelving” the dispute in the 1970s to greater assertiveness in the mid-1990s to regular coercion starting in the mid-2000s. 4️⃣ The two significant periods of non–Liberal Democratic Party rule in Japan have both preceded surges of Chinese assertiveness followed by Japanese pushback, raising questions about China’s calculations regarding domestic politics in Japan. 5️⃣ Despite several high-profile propaganda campaigns and diplomatic blitzes, most of China’s moves have been in the physical domain on the water, while Japan has focused on diplomacy and domestic administrative moves. 6️⃣ Xi’s precise role in the escalation around the disputed islands remains unclear, but his centralization of power since the 18th Party Congress has coincided with a regularization of China’s assertive behaviors. A less powerful leader might, like Xi’s predecessors, find it more difficult to prevent substate actors from taking destabilizing actions in the area, as occurred several times in the 2000s. Read the full paper here: https://lnkd.in/euc3NERD

#publicationalert After carefully following #Russia's Prez Putin's two-country Asia tour namely to Viet Nam and DPRK, spanning over a week; I write for Firstpost, assessing the implications of the visit for the South China Sea island countries, Russia's and US's allies, and whether or not this hints at the revival of Cold War 2.0. I opine, "...Russia seeks to further destabilise the US in its extended neighborhood. From Russia’s perspective, the #USA used Ukraine to threaten Putin by bringing #NATO to its doorstep. Now, Russia is aiming to threaten the US and its allies by supporting #China, #Vietnam and #NorthKorea. This shakes up the balance of power in the region...." Furthermore, who will be paying the actual price in this entire power play? I write, "..Sadly, the downside of being an ally of any major power is suffering the blow back of the entire ordeal. With or without realising, be it countries like #Ukraine, Vietnam, North Korea, or even the #Philippines, #Taiwan (Republic of China) and South Korea for that matter, end up bearing the brunt of this extended #ColdWar 2.0 proxy war.... Three major powers, Russia, China and the US will be using these littoral and island nations as mere pawns to fuel their great-power ambitions..." Many such points make this piece an interesting read! Comments welcome :) #southchinasea #ninedashline #opinionpiece #vladimirputin

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson criticized the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea for making negative remarks about China during trilateral meetings. China opposes the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and interference in its internal affairs, as well as the formation of exclusive groupings in the Asia-Pacific. The spokesperson emphasized China's commitment to defending its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights, while urging countries to uphold the one-China principle and oppose Taiwan independence activities. China also called for cautious actions on the Korean Peninsula issue to prevent escalating tensions. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #China Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/guDi2VAM

US should not get involved in disputes in South China Sea — Xi Separatist activities in Taiwan are incompatible with peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, Xi Jinping added LIMA /Peru/November 17/ The United States should not interfere in territorial disputes in the South China Sea or encourage the impulsion to make provocations there, Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned US President Joe Biden at a meeting on the sidelines of the 31st Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima. "China firmly upholds its territorial sovereignty, maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea," Xinhua news agency quoted Xi as saying. "Dialogue and consultation between states concerned is always the best way to manage differences in the South China Sea, and the United States should not get involved in bilateral disputes over the Nansha Islands, nor should it aid or abet the impulsion to make provocations," the Chinese leader added. Separatist activities in Taiwan are incompatible with peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, Xi Jinping stressed. "If the United States seeks to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait, <…> it should approach the Taiwan issue with caution and prudence, clearly oppose Taiwan’s independence and support the peaceful reunification of China," Xinhua news agency quoted the Chinese leader as saying. Beijing will not allow turmoil on the Korean Peninsula, the Chinese leader added. "China will not allow conflict and turmoil to happen on the Korean Peninsula and it will not sit idly by when its strategic security and core interests are under threat," Xi said. #business #finance #financialservices

All considered, it seems like patience and hope are both running thin. Trust has long gone for a walk in far flung places, spreading the voice. ___ Lai Ching-te's recent comments on "the motherland" can be seen as a veiled form of "Taiwan independence" theory, which will no doubt escalate cross-Strait tensions. Taiwan has been an integral part of China's territory since ancient times. Separated from the Chinese mainland by the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan's status as part of China has not changed despite the sordid efforts of the "Taiwan independence" forces on the island and some Western powers' attempts to sow discord across the Strait. This position is backed by international law, including United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 which was adopted by an overwhelming majority on Oct 25, 1971. The resolution recognizes the People's Republic of China as the only legitimate government of China and affirms that Taiwan is an integral part of China. Consequently, the government of the People's Republic of China is the sole representative of China in the UN, and the Taiwan island has no status as a separate entity. The UN and its affiliated bodies have consistently upheld this resolution, rejecting any claims of Taiwan's international representation. Key historical documents such as the 1943 Cairo Declaration and the 1945 Potsdam Proclamation also confirm Taiwan's status as part of China's territory. These declarations, which are legally binding and integral to the post-World War II international order, mandated that the Taiwan island, seized by Japan during its imperialist expansion, should be returned to China. https://lnkd.in/grqvUXaE

For China, there is NO such thing as "cross road" diplomacy. China knows very well that they are the ONLY undeterred BULLY in these waters. The CCP is hell bent on world dominance, so we don't have to make this a big appeasement drama. Nobody talks about decoupling from Chinese trade or any other Draconian measures. Through slave labor outsourcing, the western economies made what China is today. In time and with measured pain, any country can do without China. This is not the time to make friends with the axis of evil. These Ideologies simply cannot coexist since the dawn of civilization. For our future generations - can you pick your side to survive?

"If the Chinese Communist party truly believes it has a territorial claim to 🇹🇼 Taiwan, then it should also be trying to take back land from Russia, Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, has said." "China also lost land to Russia during that period but was not making any effort to take it back. He said this showed Beijing’s plans to annex Taiwan – which it has not ruled out using force to achieve – were not driven by territorial integrity." With his interview #WilliamLai cleverly referred to the treaty of #Aigun through which 🇨🇳 China was forced to cede about 1m sq km of Chinese territory, including Haishengwei, known as #Vladivostok, to 🇷🇺 Russia. With the interview Lai attempted to show that China does not want Taiwan back for reasons of territorial integrity - despite China stating the opposite - but purely for geopolitical reasons, namely breaking control by the US of the #firstislandchain Taiwan is one of major links in the first island chain and if the #CCP were to seize it, they would immediately gain strategic access and increased dominance of the #Taiwanstrait and of the region, while countering #US dominance. Great insights by Helen Davidson in the The Guardian https://lnkd.in/dH4tMtfN While I agree with President Lai regarding the opportunistic stance of justifying seizing Taiwan with "territorial integrity" and "#nationalrejuvenation" (伟大复兴), I personally believe that for Xi, Taiwan is personal and control of the island has much to do with the fact that it is a feat that not even #Mao was able to accomplish and if Xi were to be able to do it, it would affirm his reputation as well as further cement his grip on power. #territorialintegrity #rejuvenation #china #taiwan #russia #US