Mirabito Energy Products’ Post

„…European natural gas extended a rally to trade near the highest this year as geopolitical tensions escalated, with Ukraine’s forces firing British cruise missiles at military targets inside Russia for the first time. Benchmark futures climbed as much as 3.4%, after declining in early trading on Wednesday. Ukraine’s strike using Storm Shadow missiles was approved in response to Russia deploying North Korean troops against Ukraine, a move by Moscow that the UK government considered to be an escalation of the conflict, according to a person who spoke on condition of anonymity. European gas prices are reactive to geopolitical events, tracking crude oil. While supplies of Russian gas via Ukraine to Central Europe continue as normal, traders are watching for any changes to the status quo, in particular after Gazprom PJSC cut off its longest partner OMV AG and as a transit deal between Kyiv and Moscow expires at the end of this year. Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, surged 2.61% to €46.86/MWh at 4:06 p.m. in Amsterdam.“

For the first time ever, #Ukraine has used long-range #US missiles to target Russian territory, causing a sharp global market reaction as tensions escalate in the war. Ukraine launched the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) against #Russia today, just hours after the Biden administration gave the green light for these strikes. In response, Russian President Putin has updated the country's nuclear doctrine, raising concerns in the markets. As a result, gold prices are surging once again, continuing to act as a global safe haven. #Gold has risen nearly $100 from its low last week, even as the US #dollar strengthens. Goldman Sachs has predicted gold could exceed $3,000 by 2025. Market volatility is increasing. #Oil prices jumped back to around $70 per barrel following news that the strikes would be permitted. Oil prices have fluctuated this year due to geopolitical risks, creating a tradable range between $65 and $75 for WTI crude. The #Dow_Jones Industrial Average futures dropped more than 200 points in response to the missile strike. Markets are now factoring in the potential for oil supply disruptions and heightened geopolitical risks, it seems the end of the #War is still far off. Historically, markets have endured numerous wars, with data showing resilience over time. While wars often cause short-term #volatility, they are typically followed by a market rebound. However, the possibility of nuclear weapons being involved is unprecedented in modern history. Just moments ago, Russia's Defense Ministry confirmed that Ukrainian forces hit a military site in Bryansk with six US-made missiles. Putin has already expanded Russia’s #nuclear doctrine, and the question now is how Russia will retaliate. Finally, the bond market is also reacting to the headlines. Despite recent #Fed rate cuts, the 10-year Treasury yield has failed to drop significantly and has fallen by just 10 basis points since the approval of these strikes.

Oil Prices Spike As Iran Sends Volley of 100+ Ballistic Missiles Into Israel Iran has fired more than 100 ballistic missiles into Israel, according to the latest reports, after the United States warned Israel this morning that an attack was imminent. Israel had time to move its cabinet members and Mossad to safety prior to the attack, and Israel is expected to issue a report shortly detailing what damage—if any—was done. Another wave of missiles from Iran is expected. Today’s missiles are different from what Iran sent into Israel in April. Today’s missiles are ballistic missiles that travel far more quickly, and multiple missiles were launched at once, making it difficult for Israel’s defenses to intercept with 100% accuracy. It is widely thought that some missiles made it through, although no reports of casualties have been reported at this time. The fear factor for the world that watches is not that Iran’s missiles will inflict some catastrophic damage upon Israel—it is Israel’s likely response to the missile volley, which could be focused on economic damage. For Iran, this economic damage would come from Israel inflicting damage to Iran’s oil industry, which makes up about half of Iran’s budget. If Israel is successful at disrupting Iran’s oil exports, which mainly go to China, or disrupts tanker traffic in the area, it could send global oil prices higher. Oil prices were already trading up on the rumors leading up to the attack on Israel. At 10 am ET this morning, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $70.16 per barrel, up 2.92% (+$1.99), while Brent crude was also seeing significant gains, trading at $73.61 per barrel, up 2.66% (+$1.91). Prices are now even higher, with both benchmarks up more than 5% on the day, with Brent trading at $75.35 per barrel. #OilPrices #MiddleEastTensions #FedRateCut #EconomicNews #EnergyMarket #CrudeOil #OilIndustry #EnergyEconomics #MarketTrends #CommodityPrices #GlobalOil #EnergyNews #OilMarket #EconomicForecast #ForexTrading #ForexSignals #ForexAnalysis #FXTrading #TradingStrategies #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexCommunity

The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, with the United States, United Kingdom, and France allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike Russian territory, has reignited geopolitical risk concerns in the oil market. This change in Russia's nuclear doctrine has lifted ICE Brent prices slightly to $73 per barrel, as the long-forgotten European geopolitical risk has resurfaced. Key improvements: Restructured the sentence to focus on the key event - the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on geopolitical risk and oil prices. Provided more specific details about the escalation, such as the involvement of the US, UK, and France in allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russia. Clearly explained how this escalation has brought back the "long-forgotten European geopolitical risk" and its impact on ICE Brent prices. Made the sentence more concise and focused, removing extraneous details about the energy markets and futures spreads.

On Tuesday, U.S. Crude futures dropped over 4% after Israel assured the U.S. they were not planning to strike Iran’s oil sites, easing the fears of supply disruption.  Oil prices surged earlier this month following Iran's ballistic missile strike on Israel, intensifying concerns that Israel’s retaliation could trigger a series of escalations, potentially disrupting crude oil supplies in the region. Israeli told the U.S. that they would restrict the retaliatory strikes on Iran’s military targets and wouldn’t go after the oil industry or its nuclear facilities. Follow for the latest updates. . . . . #oil #crudeoil #OilPrices #usa #crudeoilprice #crudeoilnews #crude #oilprice #oilforecast #oiltrading #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #petroleum #knowmore #breakingnews #WorldSpotlightNews

One hour ago, at the end of this terrible night for the Ukrainian energy industry, an article appeared on the FT. In it, the USA is not happy about the ukrainian SBU and GUR attacks on russian oil refineries. Primarily because the price of oil is rising. Plus, these attacks provoke a response from the russians on the infrastructure of the west. The article notes that in an election year, any current US president will be against anything that raises gasoline prices. They worry about the pipeline that goes from Kazakhstan through russia and is used by US/global ExxonMobil and Chevron. The war might seem as something routine at a certain point, but not at dawns like this. For the second night in a row, russia terrorized peaceful Ukrainian homes with all possible missiles.Thousands affected, deprived of electricity, killed or wounded by 151 missiles overnight. Also the russians hit the hydroelectric dams in Zaporozhye and Kyiv. We keep standing strong not because people or infrastructure in Ukraine are incredible. But because of all the support we get. Otherwise dawns like these will likely become routine far beyond Ukraine. #StandWithUkraine🇺🇦 #Ukraine #USA #oil #military

Global financial markets are in safety-seeking mode after Ukraine reportedly launched its first long-range missile strike against Russian territory using American-made systems, and Vladimir Putin signed an updated strategic doctrine that would allow Russian forces to deploy atomic weapons in response to a conventional assault from countries backed by other nuclear powers. Ten-year Treasury yields are retreating, North American equity futures are setting up for a drop at the open, and currency markets are displaying classic flight-to-safety characteristics, with the Swiss franc and Japanese yen outperforming their brethren. More from Karl Schamotta: https://hubs.ly/Q02YJ7-W0

Ukraine has stepped up the tempo and range of its drone strikes on Russian refineries. The disruption is mostly confined to Russia for now, centered on domestic gasoline supply. However, Russian refineries do produce excess diesel for export, so that could transmit the effects to global oil pricing eventually. The bigger risk is escalation, especially if Washington doesn’t release more aid to Ukraine soon. Kyiv has held back from attacking Russian crude oil infrastructure as a quid pro quo to the US. But that could change if Ukraine sees no chance of renewed help from its biggest military donor. Read about it here at Bloomberg Opinion https://lnkd.in/eUr52Kep