NATO Veterans Initiative - NAVI’s Post

🚨NATO SENDS SHIPS TO BALTIC SEA AFTER UNDERSEA CABLE "MYSTERIES" NATO ramped up surveillance in the Baltic Sea after suspected sabotage of undersea cables between Finland and Estonia. Finland retrieved an anchor from a tanker dubbed part of the "shadow fleet" transporting Russian oil—because apparently, dragging anchors is the new sabotage trend. Finland’s Foreign Minister called NATO’s presence “calming,” though 3 cable mishaps in 15 months suggest the seabed could use more than calming vibes. A summit on securing critical seabed assets is set for Tuesday—because maybe it’s time to stop letting anchors run the show. Source: Bloomberg

NATO SENDS SHIPS TO BALTIC SEA AFTER UNDERSEA CABLE "MYSTERIES" NATO ramped up surveillance in the Baltic Sea after suspected sabotage of undersea cables between Finland and Estonia. Finland retrieved an anchor from a tanker dubbed part of the "shadow fleet" transporting Russian oil—because apparently, dragging anchors is the new sabotage trend. Finland’s Foreign Minister called NATO’s presence “calming,” though 3 cable mishaps in 15 months suggest the seabed could use more than calming vibes. A summit on securing critical seabed assets is set for Tuesday—because maybe it’s time to stop letting anchors run the show. i5News Desk #BalticTensions #UnderseaSurveillance #NATOSecurity

#KYIV — #Ukraine is making it increasingly difficult for Russia to hang on to illegally annexed #Crimea thanks to an ongoing campaign that's targeting air defenses, rail links and water connections. The latest blows were struck on Friday, when a joint Ukrainian navy and army operation hit a ferry crossing and oil terminal at the port of Kavkaz, located on the Russian side of the Kerch Strait that divides Crimea from Russia, Ukraine’s general staff said in a statement. Hours earlier, Ukrainians hit the Crimean side of the Kerch ferry crossing — damaging two rail ferries, the Avanguard and the Conro Trader, that are crucial to Russia's ability to keep Crimea supplied. The Kerch Strait Bridge has been significantly damaged after a series of Ukrainian attacks in 2022 and 2023, leaving it unable to take heavy train traffic. That means Russia cannot use it for military logistics like transporting heavy armored vehicles, Ukrainian navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk told POLITICO. That is forcing Russia to rely on road and rail links across occupied Ukraine — which puts trains and trucks into easier range of Ukrainian attack. “Considering the fact that the railway line Russians are building through the occupied territories of Ukraine is not finished yet, this civil ferry was their army’s main logistics route,” Pletenchuk said. “Their sea logistics is also long gone after Ukraine destroyed four and damaged five of their landing ships,” he added. The attack is the latest stage of Ukraine’s complex operation aimed at making Russia's hold over Crimea untenable. Besides targeting logistics, Ukrainians have used marine drones and coastal missiles to destroy or damage at least 27 Russian warships and one submarine. Kyiv has also attacked Russian airfields and naval bases, forcing Moscow to move its fleet east along the Black Sea coast to the Russian port of Novorossiysk. The peninsula's air defenses have also been degraded with constant attacks. “As long as the Russian occupiers are in the Ukrainian Crimea, something will periodically explode there,” Pletenchuk said. https://lnkd.in/dbcGJyKk

Ukraine used its last reserves to attack Russian border, senior Russian officer says On August 6, the Kursk Region came under a massive attack from Ukraine MOSCOW, August 6/ The enemy used its last reserves to attack the Russian border in the Kursk Region, and these troops could be destroyed in the near future, said Major General Apty Alaudinov, a deputy chief at the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces. "I think that in the coming days we will destroy these resources, the last reserves that the enemy had built up. In principle, perhaps, this is the situation for us, when through the destruction of these resources we will reach the finish line in the completion of <...> the special military operation. And hardly anyone will be able to stop us afterward. So let's all cool down. Let's grab some popcorn and calmly watch how our boys are destroying the enemy," the officer, who also commands the Akhmat special force unit, said in a video posted to Telegram. On August 6, the Kursk Region came under a massive attack from Ukraine. Russian air defenses shot down 26 drones over the region. An attempt to break through the state border was also prevented. The attacks left three people killed and 18 others wounded. #business #finance #financialservices

Sometimes deterrence requires escalation to send a message of resolve and de-escalate. When the aggressor is not met with a tit-for-tat or next step escalation they will continue to escalate in numbers and/or types of attack. When this is allowed to happen the eventual response required can result in greater more dangerous escalation to achieve escalation dominance. At that point the escalation spiral is more likely to be triggered. The old saying give them an inch. The possible Russian response would be military escort of ghost fleet ships but that is likely unrealistic given readiness issues with the Russian fleet and strains on Black Sea fleet. Still what is the NATO response when an anchor dragging ship has a military escort?

The recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, particularly the destruction of multiple bridges in the Kursk region, carry significant strategic and geopolitical implications: 1. Strategic Military Impact: - Logistical Disruption: Ukraine's destruction of bridges in Kursk severely hampers Russian military logistics. With bridges down, Russia's ability to supply its forces, move equipment, and maintain its defensive lines is greatly diminished. This can lead to a significant slowdown in Russian military operations and potentially force a retreat from key positions. - Psychological Warfare: By striking deep within Russian territory and effectively disrupting their logistics, Ukraine is sending a strong psychological message. It shows that Ukraine is capable of not only defending its territory but also taking the fight into Russia, potentially affecting Russian troop morale. #GlobalPeace #WarAndPeace #StrategicForesight #GeopoliticalRisks #Eurasia #PoliticalUnrest

2. Escalation of the Conflict: - Broader Conflict: These actions could provoke a more aggressive response from Russia, as the strikes occur on Russian soil. Russia might escalate the conflict by increasing its attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure or by employing more devastating weaponry, potentially leading to greater civilian casualties and destruction. - Cross-Border Operations: The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk represents a significant escalation, with Ukraine directly engaging Russian territory. This could shift the nature of the war from a defensive struggle to a broader conflict with more unpredictable consequences. 3. Geopolitical Ramifications: - Western Support: The use of Western-supplied weapons like HIMARS in these attacks underscores the critical role of Western military aid in Ukraine's offensive capabilities. It may lead to increased pressure on Western nations to provide even more advanced weaponry, while also heightening the risk of drawing NATO countries more directly into the conflict. - International Diplomacy: These developments could complicate diplomatic efforts to negotiate a ceasefire or peace deal. Russia may become less willing to negotiate if it perceives that Ukraine is gaining the upper hand or if it feels humiliated by attacks on its territory. 4. Humanitarian Concerns: - Civilian Displacement: The destruction of bridges and the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk have already led to civilian evacuations. Prolonged military activities in the region could result in a humanitarian crisis, with displaced populations needing urgent assistance. - Potential for Wider Civilian Casualties: If the conflict escalates further, particularly with more intense aerial bombardments or artillery strikes, the risk to civilian lives in both Ukraine and Russia increases. 5. Long-Term Consequences: - War of Attrition: The ongoing disruption of Russian logistics could push the conflict into a prolonged war of attrition. Both sides might dig in further, leading to a stalemate where neither can claim a decisive victory, but the human and economic costs continue to rise. - Regional Stability: The continued escalation threatens regional stability beyond Ukraine and Russia, potentially affecting neighboring countries and drawing them into the conflict either directly or through refugee flows and economic disruptions. Overall, the destruction of bridges in Kursk by Ukraine signifies a bold strategic move that could shift the dynamics of the conflict, but it also carries the risk of significant escalation and broader regional instability. The situation remains fluid, and the international community will need to closely monitor these developments to assess the potential for further escalation or opportunities for de-escalation and peace negotiations. #WorldPolitics #EasternEurope #SecurityAnalysis #Kremlin #MilitaryStrategy #PutinRegime #ConflictResolution #Diplomacy #Authoritarianism

THINKING: There is so much potential for innovations in monitoring and securing cables to be Developed, Implemented, Evaluated, & Scaled (DIES) in the WHOA (Washington, Hawaii, Oregon, & Alaska) Region

On Wednesday, #Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that he wants to launch a patrol mission in cooperation with #Baltic Sea countries to protect the region from Russian hybrid attacks. This is an important initiative, and while it alone is not enough to protect underwater infrastructure, any cooperation between NATO countries to secure submarine cables and pipelines is welcome. That the problem is not merely theoretical is shown by the damage done to the Balticconnector gas pipeline by the container ship Newnew Polar Bear last October, or the damage done to the submarine cable between Finland and Germany and the submarine cable between Sweden and Lithuania by the anchor of the cargo ship Yi Peng 3, which was allegedly dragged along the seabed for hundreds of kilometers. We should not be misled by the fact that both times it was a Chinese ship. The political and also military cooperation between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation is a well-known fact. According to naval sources, dealing with the problem is complicated by the fact that the sea cannot be crowded with patrol ships, which currently makes it almost impossible to prevent the destruction of underwater infrastructure. Secondly, although good monitoring capabilities allow for the rapid identification of the vessel that caused the failure, international maritime law makes it difficult to stop and search these vessels. The Yi Peng 3 is currently anchored just outside the Danish straits and is being monitored by the navies of Denmark and several other countries. The Danes have promised to board the vessel if it enters Danish waters, and risk being taken to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea by China. https://lnkd.in/deETCRBH

👉 "Airspace over the Ukrainian border regions could be protected by air defenses on NATO territory. 👉 It would be correct to station air defense systems at the borders of the neighboring countries so that the western parts of Ukraine can also be protected. 👉 This would relieve the burden on the Ukrainian air defense and allow it to protect the front. 👉 Defending the airspace over Ukraine from Poland and Romania should not be ruled out in the long term. 👉 Under these conditions, I think it's possible." German lawmakers suggest allies could protect sky over western #Ukraine from #NATO soil: https://lnkd.in/eEFk5y_6