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Rainfall prediction: Goat Intestines vs the Met department Do communities use early warning information? There are ways to know in advance that drought or Elnino is coming. Both cultural and scientific ways. What communities do with this information will depend on a complex set of factors. How was the information packaged and shared? Who received it? Do they trust the messenger? Why should the information brokers pass it along? Have local predictions been integrated? I participated in a panel discussion last week at the AidEx - The Global Humanitarian Aid Event (see the picture). I spoke about Busara's approach to applying behavioural systems thinking. Most global challenges stem from broken behavioural systems. People and institutions interact in ways that sometimes lead to undesirable outcomes, such as climate change. In some research projects, we combine the evidence-based approaches of behaviour science and complement them with systems thinking. I gave the example that there is evidence that communities in Northern Kenya tend not to use early warning information. This is a behavioural and structural problem. How can we unpack the issue using systems analysis and behaviour, expanding our focus to include indigenous knowledge systems, market systems, and weather information systems, among other systems? Including a social network analysis to see how information is disseminated would be useful. As usual, all my talks lead back to insurance. How does humanitarian assistance discourage the uptake of insurance? Can insurance payouts be used to fund emergency response/cash transfers? Thank you, Amani Institute, for inviting me to your panel. #behaviouralscience #insurance #systemsthinking

Intersectionality, Today is World Elder Abuse Awareness Day and the Theme: Spotlight on Older Persons in Emergencies. Senior citizens face challenges in access health care, mobility, livelihoods and if you look at the statistics in Malawi you will see that grandparents are the ones who take care of orphans. Looking at the challenges they already face, Climate Change has made it worse. In Malawi for the past years we have had Cyclones, Drought and Dry spells, food insecurity, flooding and to top it off the rise in the cost of living. Do our disaster mitigation plans include the elderly? Do our response and contingency plans include them? A simple question would be do elderly people know which routes are safer to use to evacuation places when a cyclone hits or flooding? Would are our social protection interventions ensuring elder people who get entitlements are protected? Do we include their voices or consult them when drafting policies? To access health care services how do senior citizens have to travel? When one is doing a gender analysis it is good to consider such issues. Let us be aware and respond with relevant and adequate interventions

Earlier this month, African Risk Capacity made an #insurance payout to the Government of the Republic of Malawi and its Replica partner, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency), following the devastating 2023/24 El Niño-driven #drought. The payout of just over USD 11.6 million will support immediate humanitarian efforts to address food insecurity and reach the most vulnerable communities impacted by the widespread crop failures. This is the largest drought payout in Malawi’s history, addressing the worst drought in 100 years. Ahead of the 2023/24 planting season, the Republic of Malawi secured an anticipatory sovereign insurance policy with ICMIF member African Risk Capacity Ltd., the insurance affiliate of the African Risk Capacity (ARC) Group. The record-breaking dry spell, exacerbated by the El Niño weather pattern, led to extensive crop failures. A state of emergency was declared in 23 districts out of the country’s 28 districts. The immediate impact of the payment is that there are funds to support over 2 million farming households which have been impacted by the drought and which face food insecurity and need assistance, emphasising the importance of resilience building. “It is in moments like these that we can truly appreciate the role of sovereign insurance as an innovative financial instrument to help bolster Africa’s resilience,” said Lindelwe Lesley Ndlovu, CEO of ARC Ltd. “The southern African drought has tested the ARC concept, and we are proud to be enabling early response and coming to the aid of those in need”, he concluded. Full story: https://lnkd.in/eaSgNAFc #ParametricInsurance #ClimateResilience Ange Nothando Chitate Malvern C. Ibrahima Cheikh DIONG Thebe Ramanna

Pre-arranged financing is critical in responding to the vagaries of climate change that affect the most vulnerable people of society.

Public Health Emergency in Maiduguri! The recent floods in Maiduguri have created an urgent public health crisis. Waterborne diseases like cholera and typhoid are imminent due to contaminated water sources, while stagnant water is increasing the risk of malaria. Immediate interventions are needed to restore clean water, improve sanitation, and strengthen healthcare services to prevent disease outbreaks and protect vulnerable populations. Here’s my take on the situation: https://lnkd.in/ddfqUVNc #MaiduguriFlood #PublicHealth #HealthCrisis #FloodResponse

++ African Development Bank Group and African Risk Capacity (ARC) Group Disburse $11.2 Million to Malawi for El Niño Relief ++ Representatives of the African Risk Capacity (ARC) Group and the African Development Bank have presented a cheque to the government of Malawi for an insurance payout of $11.2 million, to support the country’s recovery from a devastating drought arising from a weather condition known as El-Nino. "The insurance payout we receive today is not just a financial transaction; it is a lifeline for our vulnerable populations. It is a testament to the power of foresight and planning, allowing us to respond swiftly and effectively to the needs of our people. This payout will enable us to provide immediate relief, ensuring that no Malawian suffers the worst forms of hunger due to the recent dry spell conditions." - Dr. Lazarus McCarthy Chakwera, President, Malawi "The devastating El-Nino-driven southern African drought underscores the critical need for preparedness in the face of escalating weather-related disasters. We have witnessed the role of the ARC mechanism in facilitating timely interventions, and we are grateful to partners such as the African Development Bank that make it possible for African governments to participate in ARC risk pools. Through your financial support, we can increase our reach and impact, and make a difference in the lives of the most vulnerable." - Ibrahima Cheikh DIONG, UN Assistant Secretary General and ARC Group Director General "There is a strong nexus between climate change and fragility given the rising negative impacts on food security and livelihoods. The African Development Bank, through the Transition Support Facility (TSF), will support Government efforts to strengthen capacities for prevention, preparedness, and resilience against climatic shocks in Malawi." - Dr. Yero Baldeh, Director of the Transition States Coordination Office, African Development Bank Group #techafricanews #africa #malawi #food #security #prevention #preparedness #resilience #relief

📰 📢 The ISF signed a grant agreement to support the implementation of an index-based insurance product to strengthen the resilience of vulnerable households against climate change in #Malawi. Malawi’s low-lying terrain makes it highly susceptible to flooding, with heavy rainfall from tropical depressions being the primary cause. These floods disrupt food and water security, energy resources, and the livelihoods of rural communities. With agriculture, predominantly rain-fed and small-scale, contributing 80% of Malawi’s GDP, droughts and floods present serious risks, affecting much of the population. The InsuResilience Solutions Fund (ISF) is co-funding the development and implementation of the project along with the Danish Red Cross, Malawi Red Cross Society, African Risk Capacity (ARC) Group, and JBA Risk Management. For more information on the project, please visit https://lnkd.in/gynzgwbJ #ClimateChange #ClimateAction #ClimateResilience #ClimateRiskInsurance

Insurance is crucial in helping low income vulnerable households in developing countries recover after climate-induced disasters. However, in Ghana the issue of insurability remains a big challenge. Minimal investments are made to ensure that communities and cities in the country recover and build back better after a disaster such as flooding occurs. Minimal efforts are made to prevent and reduce the risks of climate-induced disasters in Ghana especially at the community level. This poses a challenge for insurance companies to provide policies that offer financial protection for exposed populations in the country. The Government of Ghana must invest heavily in preventing and reducing disaster risks in the country. Collaboration with local government assemblies is essential to ensure that such activities are effectively carried out at the community and household levels. This would enable the risk transfer process and encourage insurance companies in Ghana to develop policies that cover residual risks. What are some examples of disaster risk reduction and prevention measures that can be carried out in Ghana? AXA Climate United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) NADMO InsuResilience Solutions Fund (ISF) CARE Climate & Resilience Academy CARE Munich Re #resilience #climateinsurance #sustainabledevelopment

Nepal’s Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) efforts have largely remained confined to policies and textbooks. When faced with real crises, the lack of an effective and immediate response mechanism becomes painfully evident. This is a glaring failure of the government, which failed to anticipate and prepare for disasters in a country historically prone to them. Despite this recurring vulnerability, disasters are often treated with minimal urgency, a stark reality. While disasters affect everyone, it is the poor and marginalized who bear the brunt of the state's failure. This neglect is a harsh and tragic truth. Our Prime Minister embarked on an ambitious journey, perhaps with good intentions, but his failure to act during a national crisis is nothing short of disgraceful. Congratulations, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, and all those entrusted with shaping the country’s future, for your illusory leadership. You have managed to exemplify the worst form of negligence, one that has cost hundreds of lives. It is high time we, as citizens, recognize the consequences of our choices. We must start treating elections with the seriousness they deserve. The responsibility for this loss doesn't rest solely on the political parties-it is also on us, the voters, who repeatedly make the wrong decisions. Let’s all start thinking beyond our professional roles and bring the same assertiveness and commitment to the future of our country, just as we do in our jobs. For the sake of our nation, we must take responsibility in every aspect of our lives. #failedleadership #failedstate