The Russian Union of Grain Exporters and Producers (RUSGRAIN UNION) formed an Expert Committee of representatives of member companies to assess and forecast the grain, pulses and processed product markets. The Committee includes representatives of Aston, AST, MZK Export, Demetra Holding, OZK, Petrokhleb-Kuban. Igor Pavensky, head of agricultural market analysis at Rusagrotrans, was elected Head of the Committee. Following the first meeting, the Committee made a preliminary assessment of the export potential of Russian grain in 2025, in an optimistic scenario, about 45 million metric tons, including 40 million metric tons of wheat. Exports for the first half of 2025 will be limited by a quota from February 15 to June 30, 2025. 10.6 million metric tons have been allocated for the quota, while it is highly likely that about 0.5 million metric tons will be allocated for corn exports from the Far East, where a good local harvest was harvested. In the period from January until February 15, the Committee expects grain exports of approximately 3 million tons in January and 1.5 million tons in the first half of February. Thus, by July 1, 2025, about 15 million tons of grain can be exported. In case of restoration of winter crops during the spring vegetation period, we assume that the 2025 harvest will exceed 130 million metric tons of grain, including 85 million metric tons of wheat. In this case, we can count on exporting another 30 million metric tons of grain in the second half of 2025, including 25 million metric tons of wheat. In the conservative scenario, exports in the second half of 2025 will amount to no more than 20 million metric tons, mainly wheat. Russian grain importers have consistently high demand. MENA, our home market, is still far from self-sufficient. We also see growth prospects in other countries on the African continent, where grain remains one of the most affordable ways to feed a rapidly growing population and solve the problem of hunger. We are especially proud that Russian wheat exports to Nigeria have already exceeded 1 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season, which has helped to reduce the number of starvings in the country below the record 100 million.
RUSGRAIN UNION’s Post
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UKRAINE DATA: MY 2024-25 grain exports rise on year as of Nov 13 2024-25 wheat exports projected at 15.6 mil mt: S&P Global 2024-25 corn exports forecast at 22 mil mt: S&P Global 22.3 mil mt wheat, 20.2 mil mt corn harvested as of Nov 8 Ukraine’s wheat exports in marketing year 2024-25 (July-June) reached 8.2 million mt as of Nov. 13, rising 57% year on year, Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food data showed. During Nov. 1-13, the country shipped 460,000 mt of wheat compared with 594,000 mt in the corresponding period last year. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated Ukraine’s wheat exports at 15.6 million mt for MY 2024-25. Despite ongoing Russian attacks on its ports, Ukraine continues to export grains through its own Black Sea corridor established in August 2023. The country supplied 18.4 million mt wheat in MY 2023-24, ministry data showed. Ukraine’s MY 2024-25 wheat production would reach 22.4 million mt, Commodity Insights forecast. Ukrainian farmers harvested 22.3 million mt of wheat from 4.9 million hectares of land in the last season, agriculture ministry data showed. The 2025 new crop planting has begun in Ukrainian fields and about 4.4 million hectares of winter wheat has already been planted, according to the ministry. Corn exports up 18% on year Ukraine’s corn exports in MY 2024-25 rose 17.7% year on year to 5.72 million mt as of Nov. 13, according to ministry data. The nation exported 1.04 million mt of corn during Nov. 1-13, up from 1.06 million mt in the corresponding period last year. Commodity Insights forecast Ukrainian corn exports at 22 million mt in MY 2024-25. In MY 2023-24, the country supplied 29.3 million mt of corn, ministry data showed. According to the agriculture ministry, about 20.2 million mt of corn was harvested as of Nov.8 from 3.3 million hectares of land. Ukraine’s MY 2024-25 corn production would reach 25 million mt, Commodity Insights forecast. Source: S&P Global Platts
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China’s annual Agricultural Outlook Report was recently released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) and the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS). We provide a short summary of the 200+ pages on our website: https://lnkd.in/dC8YChAF. The report anticipates trends in the production, consumption, and trade of key ag commodities in the coming decade. Unsurprisingly, the report is optimistic that China will be able to boost domestic production and reduce imports. It predicts that grain output will rise from 695 million metric tons last year to 766 million tons in 2033—an increase that will be mainly achieved by raising yields. The report also anticipates a drop in soybean imports from around 100 million tons a year to just 78.7 million tons in 2033, based on continued efforts to boost domestic soybean production and to finetune soybean content in feed formulations. Currently, China relies on imports for 80% of its domestic soybean demand, with most of the imports processed into soybean meal to feed the country's large and growing animal population. China’s projections stand in stark contrast to recently released figures by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which predicts that China's imports will keep growing in the next decade. #imports #agtrade #soybean #china #foodsecurity #selfsufficiency
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Traders union cuts Ukraine 2024 grain, oilseed crop forecast to 74.6 mln T KYIV, May 27 (Reuters) - Ukrainian grain traders union UGA revised down on Monday its forecast for Ukraine's 2024 combined grain and oilseed harvest to 74.6 million metric tons from the previous outlook of 76.1 million tons. The UGA said in a statement the harvest could include 25.5 million tons of corn, 19.1 million tons of wheat, 4.6 million tons of barley, 13.7 million tons of sunseed, 5.5 million tons of soybeans and 4.3 million tons of rapeseed. Ukraine is a major global grain and oilseed grower and exporter, but its harvests have declined since the Russian invasion in February 2022. The agriculture ministry has said Ukraine lost about 30% of the country's total potential of the agricultural sector and almost 20% of agricultural land was occupied. Ukraine had a record grain and oilseed harvest of about 107 million tons in 2021 before the invasion, including 85 million tons of various grains and 16.4 million tons of sunseed. The wheat harvest totalled 32.7 million tons while corn output reached almost 42 million tons. "The potential decline in harvest in the new season is caused by both a reduction in sown areas... and a somewhat dry period in May this year in a number of regions in the East and South of the country," UGA said. UGA said that despite a smaller forecast, overall exports could stay at almost the same level at 43.5 million tons. UGA previously saw the exports at 43.7 million tons. The union said the 2024/25 July-June exports might include 20.5 million tons of corn, 13 million tons of wheat, 3.4 million tons of rapeseed and 4 million tons of soybean.
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🌍 Brazil Continues to Dominate Global Soybean Exports 🌱 Brazil is solidifying its position as the leader in global soybean exports, and the trend shows no signs of slowing down. With its ideal growing conditions and increasing production, Brazil is outpacing competitors like the U.S. and Argentina. This shift has major implications for the global agricultural market and for U.S. producers. 📊 Find out how Brazil’s dominance impacts global supply chains and what this means for the future of soybean exports. Read more in the latest article from Southern Ag Today 👇 🔗 https://lnkd.in/gvgAAVnE
Brazil Expected to Continue Dominance of Global Soybean Exports
southernagtoday.org
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Russia’s wheat export to total record 5.9 mln tons in October — analytical center Overall Russia’s wheat export may total around 20.8 mln tons in July-October 2024 MOSCOW, October 29/ Russia’s wheat export may reach a record 5.9 mln tons in October 2024, the Rusagrotrans analytical center told TASS. "The wheat export outlook for October 2024 (considering EAEU countries) has been upgraded from 5.53 mln tons to 5.9 mln tons, which is an all-time high of monthly export volume and seriously exceeds last year’s level of 5.12 mln tons," the center said. Overall Russia’s wheat export may total around 20.8 mln tons in July-October 2024. "The volume is higher than the record level of the same period last year when 20.2 mln tons were exported," analysts said. Meanwhile, wheat export (considering EAEU) in November 2024 is also likely to exceed last year’s level, reaching 4.6-4.8 mln tons, the center said, adding that Russia exported 3.49 mln tons of wheat last November. Russia’s Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said earlier that the country’s grain export amounted to 72 mln tons (including 54.1 mln tons of wheat) during the previous agriculture season. By the end of this season export is expected at 60 mln tons. #business #finance #financialservices
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On Tuesday, U.S. grain futures continued to rise. The July SRW wheat contract closed at $6.03/bu ($221/mt; up 2.6% compared to Monday). The May Euronext wheat contract fell to €209.50/mt ($224/mt; down 2.6%). The July U.S. corn contract closed at $4.50/bu ($177/mt; up 1.5%). The European Parliament approved a one-year extension of the tariff-free trade regime with Ukraine. Under the new regime, the European Commission can implement restrictive measures if imports of Ukrainian agricultural products, including corn, exceed the average levels for the second half of 2021 and for 2022 and 2023. The bulk carrier Wadi Almolouk, which had been stuck in the port of Novorossiysk due to a lack of required documentation, was able to leave last Friday and is headed for Egypt, reports Bloomberg. The agency’s sources indicate that negotiations to release the vessel from port were held with the involvement of Egypt’s Ministry of Agriculture. Bloomberg previously reported that several ships loaded by TD Rif were unable to leave Novorossiysk due to a lack of phytosanitary certificates from the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance. Two other ships carrying wheat for Egypt, Edfu and Wadi Tiba, are still awaiting documents, Bloomberg reports, citing information from the Russian service. Check out our daily digest for more news insights: https://lnkd.in/d5dJgNhZ
SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news - April 24, 2024 | The Sizov Report blog
https://blog.sizov.report
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Brazil likely to export record volume of soybean meal in 2024, says exporters group SAO PAULO, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Brazil's soybean meal exports in 2024 will probably set a new record, topping the best mark in history recorded in 2023, according to local grains traders lobby Anec. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT In 2023/24, Brazil should once again be the second global exporter of soybean meal, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), as it had taken the lead in 2022/23 after a crop failure in Argentina, traditionally the largest exporter. Brazil is also the leader in foreign sales and production of soybeans. BY THE NUMBERS From January to November, Brazil is expected to export 21.12 million tons of soybean meal, while last year shipments totaled 22.35 million tons, according to Anec figures. To surpass 2023, therefore, soybean meal exports would need to total just over 1.23 million tons in December, which is very likely since Brazil has exported more than that every month of 2024 so far. KEY QUOTE "Considering that the monthly volume of soybean meal is very linear, we will export more than in 2023," said Jean Budziak, head of Anec's market intelligence area.
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On Thursday, wheat prices continued to decline, while corn prices rose. The July SRW wheat contract closed at $6.39/bu ($235/mt; -1.1% compared to Wednesday). The July US corn contract closed at $4.52/bu ($178/mt; +2.9%). The September Euronext wheat contract closed at €251.25/mt ($274/mt; -1.2%). A state of emergency has been declared in key grain-growing regions of Russia, according to the press service of the Ministry of Emergency Situations (MChS). The state of emergency was declared in the most of the growing regions of the Central and Volga Federal Districts, as well as in the north of the Southern Federal District. Russian exporters will not face difficulties exporting wheat despite Turkey's import ban on the crop, said Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Luth. She stated that the negative impact would be mitigated by reduced production this season and increased exports to other countries. In early June, Russia shipped 31,000 mt of wheat to Brazil from the port of Vysotsky in the Baltic Sea, reported the Grain Quality Assessment Center under Rosselkhoznadzor. Ukraine has sown nearly 5.6 million hectares with grain crops during the planting campaign, compared to 5.7 million hectares a year earlier, according to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy. Corn was sown on 3.9 million hectares, and wheat on 0.3 million hectares. Check out our daily digest for more news insights: https://lnkd.in/d2s_scjk
SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news - June 10, 2024 | The Sizov Report blog
https://blog.sizov.report
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Accumulated 2023-24 #corn, soybean and #wheat exports as of March 14 are down 5% compared to a year ago while outstanding sales are up 7%, according to the Grain Transportation Report (GTR) by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Looking ahead to 2024-25, the #USDA said export increases are expected in corn, wheat and #soybeans, suggesting rising demand for future grain transportation to export markets. → https://ow.ly/y01p50R4UTN #agriculture #agribusiness #trade
US corn, soybean, wheat exports down 5% from a year ago
world-grain.com
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📊🇧🇷 Brazil - Agricultural Exports: Latest Statistics According to ANEC, for the week of 24-30 November 2024: 🫛🟢 Soybean exports increased by approximately 36,8%, rising from 483,140 tons (17-23 November) to 660,840 tons. 🌽🟢 Corn exports surged by about 94,8%, climbing from 754,963 tons in the previous week to 1,470,926 tons. 🌾🟢 Wheat exports reached 95,000 tons. 🫛🔴 In November 2024, Brazil's soybean exports currently total 2,456,597 tons, representing an estimated decrease of 46,6% compared to 4,598,103 tons in November 2023. 🌽🔴 For November 2024, Brazil's corn exports are estimated to reach around 5,098,729 tons, marking a projected decrease of about 26,9% compared to 6,977,166 tons in November 2023. 🌾🔴 Wheat exports for November 2024 are estimated at 95,000 tons, down 35,5% compared to 147,219 tons in November 2023. 📊 Year-to-date (Jan-Oct) figures: 🟢 Soybean exports increased slightly by 0,68%, with 93,6 million tons shipped in 2024 compared to 92,9 million tons in 2023. 🔴 Corn exports dropped by 30,8%, from 42,1 million tons in 2023 to 29,2 million tons in 2024. 🟢 Wheat exports rose by 17,2%, reaching 2,22 million tons in 2024 compared to 1,89 million tons in 2023. *All numbers are revised retroactively each end of the month and may differ from previous reports. #Brazil #Exports #ANEC #Soybean #Soybeans #Corn #Wheat #BrazilAgriculture #BrazilExport #Export #AgricultureExports
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Agro Commodity Trader: Grain-Wheat, Corn, Barley, Pulses, Yellow peas, Flaxseed, Meals, Lentils and others
6d0.5M MT of corn from Far east? or is it a typo of 0.05M MT?