V-Dem Institute’s Post

80% - US Public Opinion shows sustained overwhelming public support for Israel Every month I have posted the results of the latest Harvard-Harris Poll on the topic of the current post 7/10 war. The June '24 poll has come out late due to their waiting to cover opinion on the Presidential Debate. The leading question which has been asked every month since October '23 is a simple one - "In this conflict do you support more Israel or more Hamas?" Israel or Hamas. (see screenshot from page 56 of the poll - https://lnkd.in/drXNBzZ3) The answer is 80% Israel, up from 79% the month before. More importantly in my personal opinion, is the fact that in every demographic shown below - political view, interest level and age group support for Israel is 60% of higher even amongst the age group 18-24. In a new question asked for the first time: If Hezbollah keeps firing rockets into Northern Israel, should Israel retaliate until they stop firing rockets or should they not retaliate against Hezbollah? - 67% of American's believe Israel should retaliate until they stop firing rockets. I have a very high level of self confidence with the position Israel is taking at this terrible time but even so, it is very reassuring to know that despite all the noise out there, the American public overwhelmingly supports Israel. I also personally believe, as demonstrated in a totally different kind of poll at Eurovision that Europeans share similar views. Sometimes you need to see the wood for the trees - this poll helps! Thank you America!

Three Worrisome Implications of Nepal’s Political Instability 20 June 2024 Even after the promulgation of the Federal Democratic Republic constitution in 2015, political instability continues. Expectations for peaceful livelihoods, shared national wealth, national inclusiveness, political decentralization, and major constitutional alterations, influenced by geopolitical shifts, have been overshadowed by prolonged political instability. In the ongoing China-US rivalry, Nepal is viewed through the lens of both nations. With competition, cooperation, and confrontation in the Sino-India relationship, India observes Nepal under the influence of China. Political instability in Nepal can have significant domestic strategic implications, affecting various aspects of governance, society, and development within the country. Here are three strategic implications of prolonged political instability: Geopolitical inefficiency is rising as the China-India card is frequently played. Internal institutions have become unpredictable, deviating from institutional goals to politicalization. Human spirit and nationalism (Nepalipan) disappear as fragmentation engulfs social behavior. The spirit of volunteerism, community solidarity, and cultural resilience remains strong in many parts of the country, reflecting the inherent strength of Nepalipan. Depoliticizing key institutions through transparent and merit-based appointments is essential. https://lnkd.in/gFPNAQFi

"By the end of 2024, we will know whether democracy survives or dies" - Maria Ressa, Nobel Peace Prize winner of 2021 Why? ▷ 76 countries hold elections this year. ▷ Billions of citizens are expected to vote in 2024. ▷ Elections are set in major economies like the European Union, USA, India, and the UK. ▷ As well as 8 of the 10 most populous countries, including: Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia, and the USA. This means that the 1000s of Shapers in the Global Shapers Community are among the millions of young people about to cast a vote. We take this seriously. Because despite this surge in electoral activity, global democracy continues its 6 year decline – combined with the rapid evolution of AI, deep-fakes, and social media. You can count on this generation in standing up for democracy, transparency and accountability. #EUnite - Sources: International IDEA, European Commission

International Day of Democracy: celebrating our "strong commitment to democratic values" In 2007 the United Nations General Assembly resolved “to observe on 15 September of each year the International Day of Democracy. () Democracy does not belong to any country or region. () Democracy is a universal value based on the freely expressed will of people to determine their own political, economic, social and cultural systems and their full participation in all aspects of their lives.” Asking ChatGPT to compare Belgium 🇧🇪 and India 🇮🇳 as democracies: "Belgium and India are both vibrant democracies but reflect different models shaped by their historical, cultural, and political contexts. Belgium’s democracy is defined by its linguistic and regional diversity, which necessitates a federal, coalition-based system, while India’s democracy manages its vast demographic diversity through a first-past-the-post system, robust federalism, and a constitution designed to ensure equality among its various groups. Both face unique challenges, but their commitment to democratic values remains strong." Photo credit: ORF

Here is the BTI 2024 Turkey Report, which I had the pleasure to write for BTI Transformation Index: https://lnkd.in/eTakuYsw

What is the state of democracy in developing and transition countries in 2024? Terrible, according to the BTI Transformation Index: only 63 out of 137 countries surveyed are still democracies. Assistant Professor Seda Gurkan examined the waning democracy in Türkiye for the index: https://lnkd.in/enp93kRZ

Three Worrisome Implications of Nepal’s Political Instability 20 June 2024 Even after the promulgation of the Federal Democratic Republic constitution in 2015, political instability continues. Expectations for peaceful livelihoods, shared national wealth, national inclusiveness, political decentralization, and major constitutional alterations, influenced by geopolitical shifts, have been overshadowed by prolonged political instability. In the ongoing China-US rivalry, Nepal is viewed through the lens of both nations. With competition, cooperation, and confrontation in the Sino-India relationship, India observes Nepal under the influence of China. Political instability in Nepal can have significant domestic strategic implications, affecting various aspects of governance, society, and development within the country. Here are three strategic implications of prolonged political instability: 1) Geopolitical inefficiency is rising as the China-India card is frequently played. 2) Internal institutions have become unpredictable, deviating from institutional goals to politicalization. 3) Human spirit and nationalism (Nepalipan) disappear as fragmentation engulfs social behavior. Way Ahead The spirit of volunteerism, community solidarity, and cultural resilience remains strong in many parts of the country, reflecting the inherent strength of Nepalipan. Depoliticizing key institutions through transparent and merit-based appointments is essential.

‘Security issues are for the grown ups, the rest is for ...' ... well not the kids but the political parties' During the past inspiring two days at the Global OECD - OCDE Forum on Reinforcing Democracy, all but two topics passed by: from safe elections to dealing with propaganda and misinformation, from equal representation to the opportunities and risks of AI, from the role of civil society to developments in Africa and South America. Yet the ‘elephant-in-the-room’ was only named at the very last minute (although I had done my best in the corridor ;-)): If we want to have a functioning democracy, we need political parties that want to be part of the solution. And strengthening our democracies is about taking action on the things that affect people most: the way our economy works for them. Countering populist actions and developments with anti-populist actions is counterproductive. A democracy should give people the promise as well as the outcome of progress. It should both tell the positive story and at the same time give people room to participate in creating that progress themselves. Hmmm... what a good idea .... let's do just that ;-) ps. For those of you interested in the latest facts & figures: https://lnkd.in/escxrX6g #reinforcingdemocracy #OECD #democracy #economicdemocracy #economy #politics #Volt #FutureMadeInEurope Volt Europa Volt Nederland

Democracy also needs economic nationalism, not just political, where the livelihood of every citizen is accounted for. Fighting geopolitical complexities requires national unity, will, goals, and strategic planning.

Join Mukulika Banerjee, Kerry Brown and Vince Cable on Tuesday 26 March 2024, 6.30pm to 8.00pm for an event on 'Governing Superstates: China and India' hosted by LSE School of Public Policy 📅 The problems of governing ‘superstates’ with populations of 1.4 billion people are of a different scale from others. A key question is how much decentralisation is possible and is happening. Too much and centrifugal forces can build up leading to secession and conflict; too little and the problems of over-centralisation - congested decision making; lack of innovation - can become acute. How have China and India managed this balance and what is the trend? Both countries have recently moved in the direction of more authoritarian government under a dominant party and a ’strongman’ leader supposedly to make government more effective. Is that true? And at what cost? How far are they now stuck with what the Chinese call the ‘bad Emperor’ problem? https://lnkd.in/eQynQfCi