Yu Heng Wu’s Post

🚀 **Unlocking Insights with Bifurcation Analysis in SEAIJR Models** 🌍 In the complex world of epidemiological modeling, the SEAIJR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Asymptomatic, Symptomatic, Isolated, Recovered) stands out as a powerful tool for understanding disease dynamics. One advanced technique that enhances the utility of this model is **bifurcation analysis**. 🔍 **What is Bifurcation Analysis?** Bifurcation analysis involves studying how the qualitative behavior of a system changes as parameters are varied. In the context of SEAIJR models, it helps us identify critical thresholds and transitions that can lead to significant shifts in disease dynamics. 💡 **Why is it Important?** 1. **Predicting Outbreaks**: Bifurcation analysis helps pinpoint conditions under which a disease outbreak can occur. By understanding these thresholds, we can implement preemptive measures to prevent epidemics.    2. **Understanding Stability**: It reveals insights into the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria. Knowing whether a population is likely to return to a disease-free state or stabilize at an endemic level is crucial for long-term planning. 3. **Informing Policy**: By identifying critical points where small changes in parameters (like transmission rates or recovery rates) can lead to large changes in outcomes, policymakers can design more effective interventions. 4. **Optimizing Resources**: Health resources are often limited. Bifurcation analysis can help allocate resources more efficiently by highlighting which parameters are most sensitive and should be targeted for control measures. 📊 **Real-World Application** Imagine a situation where a new variant of a virus emerges. Using bifurcation analysis, we can study how changes in the transmission rate affect the overall dynamics of the disease. This allows us to adjust vaccination strategies, isolation protocols, and public health messaging to mitigate the impact effectively. 🌟 **Conclusion** Incorporating bifurcation analysis into the SEAIJR model is not just an academic exercise; it’s a practical approach to enhancing our understanding and control of infectious diseases. By leveraging this advanced analytical technique, we can better prepare for and respond to public health challenges, ensuring a safer, healthier future for all. #Epidemiology #PublicHealth #DataScience #BifurcationAnalysis #SEAIJRModel #HealthPolicy #InfectiousDiseases #Modeling #HealthcareInnovation

🌍📚 Empower Yourself with Knowledge: Order Crisis Averted! We’re thrilled to announce the release of Crisis Averted: The Hidden Science of Fighting Outbreaks, by Dr. Caitlin Rivers, Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Dr. Caitlin Rivers sheds light on the often-invisible efforts of epidemiologists in managing public health crises, offering critical lessons from recent health emergencies and a roadmap for future preparedness. The Wall Street Journal describes the book as an "ambitious and successful attempt to reset our relationship with the field of public health." 📖✨ Dive into Dr. Rivers' insights and explore how we can enhance our response to future global health challenges. 👉 For more information https://lnkd.in/ggNNVwBY 👉For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. https://lnkd.in/eMHN4zFU #PublicHealth #Epidemiology #CrisisAverted #BookLaunch #HealthSecurity

🎉 It is a pleasure to share my latest presentation at the Infectious Disease Modelling (IDM) Conference, Bangkok, on "Leveraging Social Contact Data to Model Viral Respiratory Infections”, a project I am doing together with Prof. dr. Niel Hens and Prof. dr. Andrea Torneri at Data Science Institute (DSI) UHasselt. Using data from POLYMOD, CoMix, and the Belgian Household Contact Survey, we explore how repeated interactions and contact clustering shape transmission dynamics. Important finding: simplifying assumptions in models can affect transmission probabilities and epidemiological measures. This research highlights the importance of considering different contact processes for effective disease control strategies. Very happy to contribute to this field and open for discussion and collaboration! #Epidemiology #DataScience #IDM2024 #MathematicalModeling #InfectiousDiseases

🚨 Join us – online or in person! 🚨 Interested in disease modelling? Citizen behaviour? Agent-based modelling (ABM) or science-policy interface? You're invited! Here’s a sneak peek of what we’ll be discussing: 1️⃣ What can we learn from 𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐧𝐬' 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 on their infection circles? 2️⃣ How can we build a 𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐲𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐀𝐁𝐌 to simulate citizen behaviour and the corresponding virus spread in a city? 3️⃣ What do we know about 𝐦𝐨𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐬 within and between cities, and how does that shape our understanding of virus transmission? And there’s much more to uncover! 🧩 📌 Follow the link in the post down below. 👇 #ScienceToPolicy #DataInformedDecisions #AgentBasedModeling #CitizenScience

NEW ARTICLE: How to establish and sustain a disease registry: insights from a qualitative study of six disease registries in the UK 📑 The advent of new chronic conditions such as long COVID-19 raised the question of whether and, if so, how best to establish new disease registries for such conditions. Prompted by the potential need for a long COVID-19 registry, this study examined experiences of existing UK disease registries to understand barriers and enablers to establishing and sustaining a register, and how these have changed over time. This study by Edmund Stubbs, Raphael Wittenberg, Josephine Exley, and Nicholas Mays undertook semi-structured interviews between November 2022 and April 2023 with individuals representing six disease registries that collect individual-level longitudinal data on people diagnosed with a chronic condition. Read more here:⬇️  https://lnkd.in/gZY5pXdA #disease #epidemiology #UK #newresearch #COVID19

Are you attending the 2024 ISPE Annual Meeting in Berlin? Certara is presenting several posters and our experts Matt Zierhut and Artak Khachatryan will be in attendance to share their research. Poster Presentations: Monday 8/26 - (103) Evaluation of Two Methods in Minimizing Confounding by Indication Bias in Observational Research: an Example Based on Guideline-recommended COVID-19 therapies Tuesday 8/27 - (108) Evaluating Caregiver Quality of Life, Indirect and Intangible Costs and their Association with Alzheimer’s Disease Severity in the US Wednesday 8/28 - (166) Model-based Meta-analysis: An Innovative and Robust Methodology for Clinical Decision Making - (302) Canadian Pustular Psoriasis Study (CAPPS): Examining disease burden, treatments and healthcare resource utilization for palmoplantar pustulosis in Canada Learn more: https://lnkd.in/enAHc7Tv #ISPE #Epidemiology #Alzheimers #drugdevelopment

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute respiratory tract infection, with the greatest impact on infants, immunocompromised individuals, and older adults. Egon Ozer worked on a retrospective cohort study that examined RSV epidemiology, clinical severity, and genetic diversity in Chicago, Illinois, US, in the years surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. Read it here: https://buff.ly/3AgYEvA #RSV #healthcare #medicine #pandemic #COVID

For anyone intrigued by the investigative side of epidemiology, Crisis Averted by Caitlin Rivers is a must-read. It’s a deep dive into the fascinating world of modern disease detectives, offering insight into how epidemiologists unravel the causes of outbreaks and to stop epidemics. With my background in fact-checking, I find this approach to be particularly compelling. One of my favorite examples starts on page 30, recounting the story of courageous dogsled teams who braved harsh winter conditions to deliver life-saving medicine, averting a deadly diphtheria epidemic and saving hundreds of children from a painful death. Rivers paints vivid pictures of various public health victories such as the global eradication of smallpox, and she covers lesser-known but equally gripping challenges, such as the battle against respiratory illnesses in military barracks and recent outbreaks in Haiti. Each story serves as a powerful reminder that the work of epidemiologists doesn’t just involve analyzing data—it’s about safeguarding communities and shaping the course of history. As we face ever-evolving threats like new pathogens and inconsistent public health funding, Crisis Averted is an inspiring call to action, urging us to recognize the unsung heroes of epidemiology and invest in a future where public health can tackle the unexpected. 

🧠Traumatic Brain Injuries: An Overview in Riverside County, CA 📊 When many of us think about epidemiology, we picture communicable diseases. But the field extends far beyond that—encompassing non-communicable conditions like injuries and violence. I’m excited to share that a data brief I contributed to, focusing on Traumatic Brain Injuries (TBIs) in Riverside County, is now published! Our team analyzed local data to uncover the top causes of TBIs in our community and crafted a comprehensive overview to share these insights. This brief is just the first in a series, and we’re starting with a high-level look at the trends we discovered. (Spoiler: falls are a big factor—some might say they’ve tripped us up!) I’m learning so much about injuries and violence in addition to my work in suicide prevention. I’m grateful to be part of a team that encourages us to expand our knowledge and explore different areas of public health. 📎 Check out the brief here: https://lnkd.in/gxVJJFEs

🚀 Excited to share that our recent research has been published in the Royal Society's Proceedings B! 📖🔬 In our study, we delve into the intricacies of mathematical models in epidemiology, particularly focusing on the often-overlooked significance of contact repetition patterns in social contact data. Our findings highlight the importance of considering contact repetition when utilizing social contact data to assess the total number of infections attributable to an infectious case. These insights provide valuable guidance for shaping both local and global intervention measures to limit the spread of respiratory infections 🧮🦠. Special thanks to Prof. Jacco Wallinga, Prof. Niel Hens and Prof. Andrea Torneri for their guidance and support. Moreover, a huge thank you to ESCAPE for their invaluable support in making this study possible. Together, we're advancing the field of epidemiology and contributing to better public health strategies. 🌟👩🔬👨🔬 more details on our findings can be found 👉 https://lnkd.in/ghJFutbF #ESCAPEProject #Epidemiology #PublicHealth #MathematicalModelling #Research #Science #HealthData