2019 Trends: The Politicians are Coming

Part three in a three-part series looking at the trends in digital marketing to keep in mind throughout 2019 and beyond (part one looks at the growth and impact of Stories, and part two looks at the missed opportunities in digital audio - you should read them). Ideally, none of what I'm going to cover should come as any surprise, however, what I hope to bring to the conversation is additional insight and ideally, actionable takeouts.

Each part will be broken down into three main areas:

1. Why are we here? Background. Facts. Figures. Key drivers. 
2. What does that mean today? The trends and proof points we can see around us right now. 
3. What should you do tomorrow? Actions. It's all well and good knowing this stuff but if you walk away with no clear direction, then what's the bloody point? 

Onwards to part three: let's talk about the third marketing piece that should help you sound smarter at parties: the politicians are coming.

Why Are We Here?

Hold tight, this one is going to get hairy. 

So look, there are three core reasons why we are where we are - and things aren't going to get much better for the companies the politicians and lawmakers have set their sights on.

Reason 1. The Platforms Have Undermined Trust 

At the end of 2016, I wrote that Facebook had a measurement problem. In Q4 of that year, Facebook

• Overstated the average video viewing time by up to 80% (for TWO YEARS)
• Overstated how long people spent reading Instant Articles (remember those?)
• Over-counted views with Branded organic posts (double counting repeat visitors)
• Overstated website and app referrals
• Under-reported VTR (video through rate)
• Under-reported Facebook reactions to LIVE video content
• Miscalculated mobile search metrics

All this in one quarter. 

All this, before Cambridge Analytica.

Since then we've had data leaks, information harvesting, the disruption of western democracy, bad actors, alleged wilful negligence, congressional hearings, genocide in Myanmar, the UK government seizing (and then publishing) Facebook’s internal documents… the list goes on and on.

And on.

While Facebook has been carrying the main chunk of it all, you can't get away from Google’s brand safety issues (as well as the YouTube's kids content scandal), and Twitter’s continual bot/nazi/abuse problems… but hey, dark mode can be darker, right?

In short: we are a long way from misreported video through rates and law-makers, globally, are taking notice. Which leads me to my next point:

Reason 2. Politicians are Empowered by GDPR

In May 2019, the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) came into effect – and it came in with teeth. As one of the most important changes in data privacy regulation arguably ever, GDPR changed the face of data handling forever.

Personally Identifiable Information was now protected by EU regulation and if companies were caught breaking it, they could be up for HEFTY fines: up to 4% of annual global turnover or €20m (whichever is greater).

There are several cases going through at the moment (with one major test case you should all be keeping an eye on) but this EU-wide legislature has reminded politicians that they make the laws around here, not the tech platforms, and has given more power to their collective elbows.

Be it data, democracy, or even tax avoidance - given the hostility the platforms are facing, it's clear that public servants believe Facebook and its ilk have been running amok for far too long and legislation is what will bring them in line.

And as one last late addition to this section, already this year we've seen US regulators discuss a 'record setting fine' for Facebook while in France, Google has been fined €50m for failing to be transparent on exactly how it uses the data it collects on its users (the latter falling under GDPR the former merely inspired by - but that proves my point).

3. And what about Digital Health? 

On top of all the above, there's another spectre on the horizon for the platforms: that of the impact of its products and services on public health.

Exactly what kind of impact are these time-hungry pieces of software having on our collective mental health?

And what should be done about that? 

A year ago, at the World Economic Forum, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff was quoted as saying:

"I think that you do it exactly the same way that you regulated the cigarette industry. Here's a product: Cigarettes. They're addictive, they're not good for you, I think that for sure, technology has addictive qualities that we have to address, and that product designers are working to make those products more addictive and we need to rein that back.

This year, 2019, again at WEF, this analogy continues to grow - and it's the health aspect that leaders are focusing in on.

And while solid research is difficult to pin down, a 2017 study showed that depression and anxiety increased among people that used multiple social media platforms. These impacts are change from person to person. However, qualified data or no, these are headlines government ministers take notice of. 

Fortunately, meaningful research is underway.

The platforms however, in fear of being legislated into oblivion, are rolling out their own takes on monitoring and/or improving user wellness – be that Apple’s ‘Digital Health’ feature or Instagram’s wellbeing monitor 'Time on Instagram'.

Make no mistake about it, these baby steps (grayscale screen after midnight? Lovely) are good but through a cynical lens they could be seen as lip service - small acts to simply get ahead of the game. When it does come to legislation - and it is when, not if - the tech companies need to be able to point at something and say 'Yeah but we tried'. 

What does that mean today?

It's funny you should ask that, I've got just the chart. Hang on.

Trust has NEVER been lower.

In April 2018, Recode conducted a poll with nearly 3000 US adults asking which companies do you trust LEAST with your personal information.

This is what came back:

I N C R E D I B L E

So, given the climate, you would think that sending your most senior execs to a governmental meeting/hearing to discuss the finer points of fixing ALL THE BAD THINGS would be pretty high up on the to-do list.

Apparently not.

In 2018 both Google and Facebook came under fire for not sending the right people for these meetings and, as a result, per the leader image on this post, have been ‘empty chaired’. This succeeds in two ways. One it proves that the politicians mean business and have no qualms with making an example of an absent CEO. And two, for the platforms that do turn up, it not only looks better on them but also puts them in a position to pour gasoline on an already burning fire. 'That thing Facebook did? Oh, we would never do that'

What does that mean today?

There's no silver bullet for this one I'm afraid. 

So look, there's no escaping the fact that I've spent a whole other trend article talking up Facebook’s latest medium – Stories – as a great opportunity for brand marketers. 

And I have just spent a whole other trend article (this one) extrapolating upon Facebook’s myriad trust issues. 

There is a conflict here that needs to be addressed. 

It has been shown, time and time again, that what Facebook says and what Facebook does often do not match up.

The example above, denying ever logging people’s call or SMS history without user permission is, at the time of publication, is one of the most recent additions to an ever-growing litany of how you might say ’problematic mismatched facts’.

As modern marketers, you have to make a call.

Do you a) take the moral high ground, denounce Facebook for everything that it is and remove your advertising from it or b) accept that Facebook is made up of many moving parts and the ethically-challenged coding behind the scenes is nothing to do with the ad units you need to purchase to hit your quarterly targets.

I'm sure if your bonuses didn't depend on it, you'd be all over it like a rash.

But they do, so you're stuffed (that's not to say some aren't trying).

My point is, given the landscape, it's abundantly clear that the platforms - and in many instances specifically Facebook - have been left to run roughshod over every kind of law and legal loophole possible, all around the world.

Playing fast and loose with not only people's data but also the truth about what it knew and when. As I said in the Stories piece when writing about how Instagram lifted Snapchat's whole feature set, with no remorse: Facebook DGAF.

It doesn't.

And that's a concern. A concern that I believe the politicians of the world will fix. 

And for you and me, brand marketers operating in this space, just like GDPR before it, we are going to need to be ready to adhere to any new legislation that comes in. When the next data breach hits, and our [clients'] customers are at risk, we will need to know how to react.

That means being shit hot with the data that we keep and look after. That means double-checking the metrics we get from our 'trusted' partners. And it means keeping a watchful eye on what does and does not get passed in the courts. GDPR had a two year run up but all the work was done in the 30 days before it became law.

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In closing, I hope I've made the case loud and clear that the politicians are indeed coming for the platforms. But with legislation - not pitchforks. The law-makers of the world don't want to see Google and Twitter die. Or Facebook while we're at it. They just want them to play by the rules. Rules that were either in place and being ignored or rules that are being introduced swiftly to curtail anymore abuses of power.

I say again, as brand marketers we need to be ready. Keep yourself up to date; ignorance is not a defensible position. 

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This is part three of three trend pieces I'm publishing before the end of January 2019.

Thoughts, comments, and builds are all welcome here, or on Twitter (@whatleydude).

Thanks for reading,

James

Ps. If you missed the others, they're here:

Part one, 'Let's talk about Stories'

Part two, 'Let's talk about Audio'