2024: End of Year Review
Main Idea: A quick overview of what happened this year in the stock market, economy, and employment.
2024: Lots of Stuff Happened
2024 has been a year of significant events.
Donald Trump made history as the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime with 34 felony counts.
He then survived an assassination attempt during a campaign event in Pennsylvania, only to be elected U.S. president again.
The Triple Crown Indeed. Convicted. Shot. Elected. Nice.
Anyways, this is going to be a 30,000 foot view on the financial and business side of things.
NVIDIA briefly surpassed Microsoft to become the most valuable company by market cap. Over the next several months, the top spot changed hands multiple times between NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Apple, with all three surpassing $3 trillion in market value.
Meanwhile, the stock market had another strong year, finishing up over 24% (unless it takes in the final few days...).
So, 2024 has been a mixed bag for many. While the stock market is up, prices for key items like homes continue to climb and jobs can be difficult to find.
Odds are you may not give a rip about what the stock market did in 2024, because by the time you withdraw your money or pass it to someone who will, it'll have changed a million more times.
And that's fair.
But with that in mind, I'll give you a quick overview of the past 12 months, including a few things that may be a little more useful for you.
See below for a) stock market, b) the economy, and c) jobs.
A) The Stock Market
When I mention "the stock market," it can refer to a variety of things, but most often, it means a mix of the indexes listed below.
As the year comes to a close, investors gather to review their end-of-year results—a time for reflection and celebration (or misery).
These strong performances build on the momentum of 2023, a year that delivered equally impressive results.
For investors in the S&P 500 or similar assets, being up nearly 50% over two years is no small feat.
Go ahead and take a bow.
B) The Economy
There's a million ways to gauge the economy, but again, most will bore you.
I'm going to stick with 3 that probably made an impact on you in 2024:
Inflation, interest rates, mortgage rates.
1) Inflation
We started the year around 3.1% and finished around 2.6% (although official final months will not come out until 2025).
This decrease was probably not felt by most people reading this, as some of the most important items still remained high.
(I know you've felt the price of eggs sneaking back up again, unbelievable...)
2) Interest Rates
The official term for this is the "Federal Funds Rate," which controls the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.
While it doesn't directly control mortgage rates, it affects short-term borrowing costs for banks, which can influence the rates they offer on loans and credit products.
As the rate decreases, borrowing becomes cheaper overall.
This will also impact your interest rate on your cash investments, credit cards, CDs, and more.
Below is a chart that may look confusing, but as you may already know, we started the year at 5.5%, and we've since lowered it to 4.5%.
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3) Mortgage Rates
Many people got excited when interest rates dropped, expecting it to lead to lower monthly housing payments.
If only it were that simple!
Unfortunately, mortgage rates (as shown below by Freddie Mac) don’t directly follow the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts.
Instead, they are primarily influenced by the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, inflation expectations, and the overall demand for mortgage-backed securities.
Pretty lame, I know.
As you can see, we began the year in similar spots to where we are now in both 15-yr and 30-yr home loans.
C) Jobs
Last part—jobs:
Since you're probably employed if you're reading this (but if you're not, 2025 is shaping up to be a great year for you), this will still impact you.
1) Unemployment
In November 2024, the unemployment rate in the United States was around 4%, which is slightly higher than the 3.7% rate from the previous year.
The number of unemployed people was 7.1 million, which is also higher than the 6.3 million from the previous year.
2) "Under" Employment
I believe this is the most concerning issue for many Americans.
It’s a significant problem when college graduates with strong degrees can’t find suitable work, or more accurately, work that compensates them appropriately for the investment they made in their education.
As you can see, the data shows this rate is at its lowest in some time, but I’ll leave that for you to decide.
3) Wage Growth
Compared to November 2023, this report says wage growth is up around 1% as of November 2024.
Don't get spend that 1% all at once now...lol, actually not that funny, but it's safe to say even the divisions of the government dedicated to tracking the statistics down will miss the mark, so in reality it'll depend much more on your specific industry.
CONCLUSION
A lot of numbers and charts I just threw at you, but I hope it caught you up or laid out what happened in 2024.
Tomorrow I'll post a 2025 preview of some things to be on the look out for as we enter the new year with a new president.
Until then.
Follow Up to Read or Watch: For people who like really specific financial headlines, this guy always has a great end of year video.
Action Item: Don't stress too much over all of this. If my opinion matters at all (and it probably doesn't), it seems that the more we focus on improving our own lives and the lives of those around us, the less everything else I mentioned today seems to matter.
My name is Jordan McFarland and I'm a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ at SageSpring Wealth Partners in Dallas, TX.
My goal with these brief articles is not to make you an expert, but get you thinking about ways you can optimize your finances and get ahead for tomorrow.
If any questions or thoughts come up during your reading, you can email me at jordan.mcfarland@sagespring.com.
Unfortunately, I must keep these articles rather vanilla and short in order that I do not trip any compliance wires. I'd be happy to meet with you to hear about your specific goals when the time comes.
This content reflects the opinions of the author and is subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as financial, legal, tax, or investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal. The information contained in the commentaries is derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This material does not have regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation, or the particular needs of any specific reader. Any views regarding future prospects may or may not be realized. Asset allocation nor diversification guarantees a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. They are methods used to help manage investment risk.