2024 Special Year-End Edition: Chief Economists Blog Bonanza! | Top 5 Essential Economics Posts
Welcome to the special year-end edition of Essential Economics! In keeping with tradition, this week we asked our five Chief Economists to share what surprised them this year, and what they are watching in 2025 .
We also recap our five most popular newsletters of the year.
Finally, we wish everyone a safe, happy, and restful holiday season – we’re back on January 17.
Gruenwald: Resilience Almost Everywhere (2024); Reconfiguration, Not Rebalancing (2025)
The resilience of household services spending and the strength of labor demand was the biggest surprise for me in 2024. Growth stayed higher for longer in the U.S. and recovered a bit faster in Europe than expected. Unemployment rates remain near multi-decade lows across many advanced economies.
Next year, I’m watching reaction functions: how the global trade and financial re-configuration evolves will reflect not only U.S. policy moves, but also those of the rest of the world.
To read my blog post, click here.
Broyer: Two Recovery Anomalies (2024), Three Policy Pivots (2025)
The EMEA recovery arrived in 2024, as expected, but it remains subject to two anomalies. The first is the lack of renewed confidence. The second is the coexistence of a negative output gap and a positive unemployment gap.
The 2025 forecast is clouded by three events that could result in policy pivots: the change in the U.S. administration, recent changes in the European Union leadership, forthcoming German elections.
To read Sylvain’s blog post, click here.
Kuijs: Inflation Is Back In Japan (2024), Tariffs And Their Impact (2025)
For Louis, big surprise of 2024 was Japanese inflation; his key takeaway "never say never." One may have thought that, after three decades of near-zero inflation and low wage increases, this had become a structural feature of Japan’s economy. Not so.
For 2025, Louis is watching how US import tariffs against China and, possibly, other Asia-Pacific economies evolve.
To read Louis’s blog post, click here.
Panday: Consumers Beat Expectations (2024), Hinges On Trade And Immigration (2025)
In 2024, Satyam was surprised by the resilience of US consumers, which was marked by the recent upward revisions to personal income and the saving rates going back five years. As a result, we have raised our near-term consumption forecast.
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The US macro story in 2025 will hinge on the degree of protectionist shifts in trade and immigration.
To read Satyam’s blog post, click here.
Oliveros-Rosen: Faster Growth Despite Headwinds (2024), Trade Reorientation (2025)
Elijah was surprised that growth in most emerging markets proved to be stronger than expected. This is despite significant headwinds including high global interest rates, ongoing geopolitical tensions and election uncertainties in a number of countries.
In 2025, a likely increase in protectionist policies is expected to influence the direction of trade.
To read Elijah’s blog post, click here.
Most Popular Essential Economics Issues of 2024
Issue performance in 2024 (measured by LinkedIn impressions) was driven by big events. In 2024, our most popular newsletter editions clustered around our flagship quarterly credit conditions committee forecasting rounds, as well as big events like the IMF/World Bank meetings and S&P Global’s flagship energy conference CERAWeek .
1. My Washington Week | Credit Conditions Update | Japan’s Inflation Wait Is Over | Mexico Nearshoring Slows | EM Monthly: Rate Cut Challenges (April 19, 2024).
2. My CERAWeek Review | Shifting Green Growth Narrative | Mexico Rate Cuts | Global Shadow Banks | China Two Sessions FAQ (March 22, 2024).
3. Special Credit Conditions Quarterly Update: Macro Forecasts and Narratives | Regional Credit Reports | Up Next - Global Credit Report and Wrap Up (September 27, 2024).
4. US Outperformance | Asian EM Currencies Comeback | Sovereign Debt 2024 | LATAM Debt for Nature Swaps | TSMC and Water Risks (March 1, 2024).
5. PG in the News | Europe’s Productivity | AI and Tech Sector Credit Quality | China’s E-Commerce Giants | This Week in Credit | IMF-WB Spring Meetings (April 12, 2024).
Happy Holidays!
Thanks to all of our supporters for making 2024 another successful year for S&P Global Ratings Essential Economics! A special thanks goes to indispensable “Team EE” members Orla O’Brien and Camille McManus, who help me put the newsletter together every week.
Here is wishing everyone a safe and happy holiday season – we’re back on January 17.
As always, you can find the latest research from the S&P Global Ratings Economics team here.
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1wgreat piece.