3 New Policies Should Slow Immigration; Other Key Demographic Insights

by Eric Finnigan and Chris Porter

Key takeaways:

• We expect 3 recent policy changes to reduce US immigration in 2024 significantly.
• Record employment and earnings among young adults are driving strong demand for rental housing.
• An increase of 5 million hybrid and remote jobs year over year (YOY) is encouraging migration to suburban and exurban areas, where homebuilders can buy more land.
• Shifting birth rates are dampening long-term population growth.

Each quarter, we summarize key demographic changes and their effects on our clients’ businesses. We then provide strategies for navigating these changes.

Important demographic shifts impacting the economy and housing

1. Recent policy shifts reducing US immigration

Three new policies are expected to slow US immigration through the end of 2024.

• June 4: New US asylum restrictions
• July 1: Panama deports migrants passing through from South America
• July 1: Ecuador pauses Chinese visa waivers

Lower immigration could worsen labor shortages in construction and inflame cost pressures across the economy.

We provide planning frameworks for election-year immigration policy shifts in our latest US Demographics Insights and Strategies report, available now to JBREC research members.

2. Record employment and earnings among young adults

High-income young adults (ages 25–29) are at peak age for forming households, driving strong demand for both rental and starter homes.

3. Growth in hybrid and remote jobs YOY driving suburban and exurban migration

With 5 million hybrid and remote jobs added YOY, 36 million workers spend at least part of their workweek at home. Working from home (WFH) allows people to live farther from their offices, where homebuilders can find more available land.

4. Shifting birth rates affecting US population growth

People born in the 1990s (Connectors) and 2000s (Globals) are becoming parents later and having fewer children, leading to fewer growing families and reducing demand for first-home or move-up purchases.

Now available to JBREC Research Member clients: US Demographics Insights and Strategies report

Read about the following topics in the latest report:

• Residential strategies for navigating US demographic shifts
• Where 2023’s 3 million new immigrants ended up (by metro area)
• Analysis of America’s falling birth rates and what to expect through 2033
• Up-to-date US border and immigration activity
• 50+ charts with analysis calling out the most important demographic influencers on housing

The report includes annual and long-term projections covering:

• Population growth by age
• New housing demand (both for sale and for rent)
• Vital statistics, including birth and death rates by age
• Labor supply and immigration

Learn more