Archipelago quid pro quo

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It was a deal that enabled all parties at the table to celebrate some form of victory. Mauritius finally secures sovereignty over the Chagos Islands, which were wrested from it upon the eve of independence from the United Kingdom. The UK resolves an diplomatic dispute which had culminated in a series of uncomfortable resolutions at the UN General Assembly and unfavourable advisory opinions from the International Court of Justice. Finally, the UK and USA maintain a strategically important military base on the largest of the Chagos Islands, Diego Garcia, under an initial 99-year lease. Yet, that pact precludes any prospect of those expelled from Diego Garcia in the late 1960s and early 1970s from ever returning home. The agreement comes weeks ahead of elections in Mauritius, with the result that a binding treaty is unlikely to be signed until early 2025, although it has the backing of key partner India, ensuring a degree of continuity. In the meantime, the deal is set to heighten scrutiny over other overseas military bases in and around Africa, including British and American facilities in Kenya; US, French, Italian, Chinese and Japanese naval outposts in Djibouti; and, crucially, French troops in Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire and Gabon, and Chad. Paris will be watching closely as the Chagos Islands handover promises to reignite debates over its Indian Ocean possessions. Cue headlines over the sovereignty of the Scattered Islands, which are patrolled by French troops, but subject to claims by Comoros, Madagascar and Mauritius; and even questions over French overseas departments Réunion and Mayotte, both of which host military garrisons. 

Yours in diplomatic deals,

AP editorial team

📈 13 

Two-years after suspending debt repayments, Ghana restructured USD 13 billion worth of US dollar bonds, paving the way for the country to regain access to international capital markets.

🔍 South Africa’s GNU dawn

South Africa has reached a major milestone, with its Government of National Unity (GNU) having recently passed the 100 day mark. Consultant Hannah Atkins considers the progress and pitfalls thus far, and reflects on the outlook for the coalition.

🇲🇿 Presidential possibilities

Mozambicans head to the polls today to elect their next president, with incumbent Filipe Nyusi stepping down after reaching a constitutional two-term limit. Voters will also determine the composition of the next parliament and provincial assemblies. Four candidates will be contesting for the presidency: Daniel Chapo, a relative unknown representing the ruling Frelimo party; opposition Renamo’s leader Ossufo Momade; Lutero Simango of the Mozambique Democratic Movement; and Venâncio Mondlane, a veteran Renamo campaigner, who is running as an independent after failing to secure party leadership. With Mozambique’s increasingly youthful population frustrated by Frelimo’s dominance of the political landscape since independence, “born-free” Chapo has been endeavouring to present himself as a change candidate. Even if the youth remain unconvinced, Frelimo is likely to maintain its grip on power, amid a split opposition vote and credible allegations of electoral irregularities. While counting will begin immediately after polling stations close, the electoral commission has up to 15 days to announce official results.

🇪🇹 Ceremonial shifts

The Ethiopian legislature elected Taye Astike Selassie as president on Monday, succeeding Sahle-Work Zewde, the country's first female head of state. Sahle-Work, who had hinted at her resignation in a social media post two days prior, was appointed in 2018, but has faced criticism for her silence on domestic conflicts across Tigray, Amhara and Oromia, despite her calls for peace across the country. An experienced diplomat, Taye was appointed as foreign minister in February, having previously served as Ethiopia's permanent representative to the UN. His unexpected rise to the presidency, a largely ceremonial position, comes amid ongoing unrest, with the Ethiopian National Defense Forces continuing operations in Amhara. While the presidency serves as a symbol of national unity, the power to address conflicts lies with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who attended the parliamentary session where Taye was sworn in. Ultimately, Taye is likely to dedicate most of his time to convincing Ethiopia’s international partners that Abiy has a plan to bring peace to the country, rather than being in a position to address this directly.

🇸🇳 Audit upset

Credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded Senegal’s debt from “Ba3” to “B1”, four steps below investment grade, following a public finance audit ordered by Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko. The audit, released at the end of last month, revealed that Senegal’s budget deficit had increased to 10% of GDP – double the figure reported by the previous administration – and that the country’s debt was approaching 84% of GDP, a full 10% higher than previous estimates. Although Senegal's Court of Auditors is still scrutinising the findings, and is due to report within 90 days, preliminary conclusions have already significantly impacted investor confidence – compounding uncertainty around legislative elections next month. Senegalese Eurobonds have suffered sustained losses since the release of the audit, ranking as the worst performers in an index of emerging and frontier market debt. Moody’s fears that the country’s high debt burden would "reduce its ability to absorb shocks" and is monitoring the situation for a potential further downgrade.

🇬🇦 Open arms

Gabon’s Transitional President, General Brice Oligui Nguema, made his first official visit to Washington DC on 1 October, meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken as the two nations strengthened bilateral ties and deepened their commitment to the Gabonese transition. USAID used the visit to announce that it would mobilise USD 5 million, alongside technical assistance, to support the democratic transition under its African Democratic and Political Transitions initiative. Additionally, in a bid to increase bilateral investment and trade, the Gabonese government signed six MoUs with American companies. While US support can be interpreted as a reward for General Oligui’s progress towards restoring democracy, especially compared to the more lethargic West African juntas, Washington DC is eager to strengthen its relationship with Libreville on geopolitical grounds. The State Department used Oligui’s trip to advance work on a defence cooperation agreement, with efforts intended to curtail the prospects of a Chinese military training facility in Gabon. US securocrats fear that this might morph into China’s first permanent base on the Atlantic coastline – a region traditionally under America’s sphere of influence. Diplomats also likely used the visit to address Libreville’s complicity in helping Russian crude carriers evade Western sanctions by registering under the Gabonese flag. 

📆  1-54 Africa

1-54 Africa, the first and sole international art fair dedicated to African contemporary art, will take place at Somerset House in London from 10-13 October. This 12th edition is billed as 1-54’s most expansive fair yet, with over 60 galleries selected to showcase the works of over 160 established and emerging artists including South African Esther Mahlangu, Swedish-Gambian Rugiyatou Jallow, and Congolese Eddy Kamuanga Ilunga. The fair once again coincides with Frieze London, which includes a public sculpture by South Africa’s Zanele Muholi. Following this exhibition, 1-54 Africa will next appear in Marrakech, Morocco from 30 January-2 February 2025.

🔑 African Climate Stories Fellowship 2024

The African Climate Stories Fellowship is aimed at sparking creative ideas and inspiring stories to address pressing environmental challenges facing communities across Africa.  30 fellows will be selected from across Africa for an immersive six-week virtual programme, with selected projects to be exhibited at the African Climate Stories Festival in December. Deadline is 26 October. 

📚 Someone Like Us – Dinaw Mengestu

Award-winning Ethiopian-American author Dinaw Mengestu released his fourth novel this year, exploring hidden family histories, love and loss, and the enduring pull towards home. Someone Like Us follows protagonist Mamush, the son of Ethiopian immigrants, who abandons his once-promising career as a journalist in search of a new life in Paris – but ends up embarking on an unexpected journey back to the place that defined his childhood. 

🎹Bengue – Blick Bassy 

Blick Bassy's "Bengue" is a blend of soulful melodies and rich cultural storytelling that captivates from the first note. Bassy’s smooth, emotive vocals glide effortlessly over a sober brass arrangement and subtle percussion as he sings of the rain that no longer nourishes the land, the polluted water sources, and the resulting drought and disease, painting a picture of a land suffering from human neglect.

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