It’s the final (election) countdown

Hello there 👋🏿

Last year, we described 2024 as a bumper year for African democracy, with around 18 elections slated. Of course, not all of them took place – we were unsurprised when the West Africa juntas delayed promised transitions to civilian rule. Senegal gave us a scare at the beginning of the year, with then-President Macky Sall attempting to delay polls scheduled for February, but mass protests forced the outgoing head of state to reverse his decision, paving the way for a peaceful transition. Then, in May, South Africa’s hotly anticipated elections saw the ruling African National Congress lose its majority, resulting in an historic Government of National Unity. Now, with only two months left in the year, the festival of democracy is reaching its crescendo. Botswana heads to the polls today, with President Mokgweetsi Masisi seeking a second term from an apathetic electorate. In November, voters will determine the leadership of Guinea-Bissau, Namibia, Somaliland and Mauritius – as well as the composition of parliament in Senegal, via snap legislative elections. Ghana will capture headlines early December, with voters facing an unenviable, if familiar, choice between an unpopular deputy president and an erratic former head of state. Finally, Chad may well round off the year with parliamentary polls in late December – if the opposition decides to participate. Plenty of surprises left to come!

Yours with inky fingers, 

AP editorial team

📈 48%

Africa has benefited from a 48% rise in climate finance, from USD 29.5 billion in 2019/20 to USD 43.7 billion in 2021/22; however, a fourfold increase is required annually until 2030 in order for countries to mobilise the resources required to implement their Nationally Determined Contributions, according to research by FSD Africa.

🎙️ Voices of Africa – Tatenda Mungofa

In our special edition episode of Voices of Africa, Tatenda Mungofa, Founder of Mureza Auto Co, envisions an African industrial renaissance where local minerals, manufacturing, and innovation drive economic transformation. Join Tatenda, Africa Practice CEO, Marcus Courage, and Head of Content & Strategic Partnerships at Mining Indaba, Laura Nicholson, as they discuss Africa-led industrialisation shaping the continent, one component at a time. Listen to the episode now.

🇲🇿 Frelimo fallout

Violent demonstrations have broken out across Mozambique, triggered by the electoral commission’s declaration of Frelimo’s Daniel Chapo as president-elect, with 70.67% of the vote. The process has been marred by the assassination of two opposition party agents, who were preparing a legal challenge against the dubious results. Chapo’s three opponents have all rejected the outcome, claiming widespread irregularities. At least ten people have been killed in clashes with police, with around 50 injured and 460 arrested. While Mozambican politics has historically been a contest between Frelimo and its long-term opponents Renamo, Podemos candidate Venâncio Mondlane trounced Renamo leader Ossufo Momade, shifting the centre of gravity and providing new impetus to an opposition alliance. Parties met on 28 October to draw up a joint declaration calling for the formation of a government of national unity (GNU), based on an initial proposal by the country’s Catholic Bishops, according to the Centre for Public Integrity. Mondlane has called for a week-long strike, beginning on 31 November. Meanwhile, the Constitutional Council has yet to validate the election results, being occupied resolving the electoral disputes stemming from the initial count. 

🇬🇭 Safe haven?

Militants fighting in Burkina Faso are reportedly using northern Ghana as a logistical base, while Ghanaian authorities are maintaining a covert policy of non-engagement due to an absence of attacks on its soil and fears of potential reprisals. Insurgents are crossing the 600km border to stock up on food, fuel, and weaponry, and even treat injured fighters in local hospitals, according to a report by Clingendael, the Netherlands Institute of International Relations. Although the Dutch think tank cites seven sources, including Ghanaian security officials and regional diplomats, Ghana’s security ministry rejected the report's depiction of the country as a supply line for militants, arguing that such claims could undermine regional cooperation against terrorism. The dispute likely centres on the extent to which Ghana can be considered as enabling insurgent operations through a more conservative policy of monitoring rather than launching full-scale military attacks – actions it might have taken if the militant groups had disrupted its own domestic supply lines. 

🇬🇦 Conservation collaboration

Gabon and France announced a USD 60 million initiative to support a country package designed to enhance collaboration among various agencies, helping Gabon achieve its goal of conserving 30% of its forest, freshwater, and marine ecosystems by 2030. Unveiled at the UN Biodiversity Conference in Colombia, the enhanced package facilitates collaboration between France, The Nature Conservancy, UNDP and the Global Environment Facility to support Gabon's conservation efforts. Included in this package is support for the Gabon Project Finance for Permanence, which aims to protect over 24,000 km2 of forestland, 8,000 km2 of ocean, and 4,800 km of rivers. This initiative is expected to contribute to the mitigation of 30 million tonnes of carbon emissions annually.

🇪🇹 Gas goals

Ethiopia’s federal government has endorsed ambitious plans to produce liquified natural gas (LNG) for export and the domestic market. The Ministry of Mines and Petroleum is banking on Hong Kong’s Golden Concord Ltd executing a three-phase project in the Ogaden basin. Poly GCL is under pressure to develop the concession it was awarded in 2013, which reportedly holds an estimated seven trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves. The project developer expects to produce 180,000 cubic metres of gas production, ostensibly as soon as July 2025, with exports likely to China supposedly starting in mid-2026. However, investors will need to fund a cross-border gas pipeline in order to gain access to export markets – a dynamic which is complicated by regional powers seeking to isolate Ethiopia. The weak infrastructure in Ethiopia’s Somali region poses a further obstacle, with the government approaching South Korea to finance infrastructure upgrades, including new roads. Longer-term, the government aims to channel natural gas towards domestic fertiliser production to alleviate high import costs, valued at USD 1.3 billion per year. The Ministry of Mines is concurrently drafting regulatory frameworks to support this nascent sector.

🗓️ Africa Energy Week 

The African Energy Chamber’s annual African Energy Week returns from 4-8 November at the Cape Town International Convention Centre, bringing together African energy leaders, global investors, and executives to discuss the future of Africa's energy industry. The 2024 event, themed "Energy Growth Through an Enabling Environment," promises to be the largest yet, exploring Africa's role in global energy matters and focusing on integration and collaboration to address challenges across the entire value chain.

🔑 Consultant, Insights

Africa Practice is seeking a strong and experienced insights specialist, with deep knowledge of the Nigerian political economy and broader political and socioeconomic dynamics across the wider continent. The successful candidate will join our team in Lagos, Nigeria, supporting complex projects in the region and throughout the continent. Learn more about the opportunity and apply here.

📚 Bound to Violence  – Yambo Ouologuem

First published in 1968, Bound to Violence by Malian writer Yambo Ouologuem recounts the fate of the imaginary empire of Nakem, from the Middle Ages to the twentieth century in an explosive and satirical take on nationalism, violence and power. Republished in 2024 as a Penguin Modern Classic, the new edition contains an introduction by Chérif Keïta, the award-winning Malian documentary filmmaker and professor of African and Caribbean francophone literature. 

🎹 Nizaka Panga Ngozi – Ngozi Family

 "Nizaka Panga Ngozi" by the Ngozi Family, a landmark in the 1970s Zamrock scene, brings a raw energy that embodies the genre’s fusion of psychedelic rock with local Zambian influences. The track opens with a brooding, hypnotic guitar riff that captures the dark, almost spiritual undertones of Zamrock while setting an expectant tone for the rest of the song. Lyrically, "Nizaka Panga Ngozi" is a defiant, almost cautionary anthem about respect and boundaries, resonating with a generation grappling with the aftershocks of colonialism and the promise of independence. Tyler, the Creator’s sampling of the track on his latest album introduces its haunting energy to a new audience, showcasing its lasting influence on boundary-pushing artists across eras and continents.

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