Barnum- Forer Effect

This week, despite being generally skeptical, I want to talk about the Barnum Forer Effect, starting from my occasional inclination to believe in Astrology.

How did I end up here?

Recently, our company had one of the themed event days we organize every month. The theme for this month was "dream big." According to the themes, there are workshops, webinars, and sometimes external speakers for employees to participate in.

One of the speakers was Princess Diana's astrologer as a speaker. She talked to us about the foundations of astrology, its origins, planets, stars, etc. Then, she made a general 2024 prediction for each zodiac sign and answered people's questions.

I was very impressed by her speech, she is charismatic, knows what's she talking about and persuasive. But then, I said to myself, Emine, don't be fooled by her charisma because every time you leaned towards believing in these things, something came up to refute your thesis.

What is it? Years ago, I discovered an astrology blog based on a friend's recommendation. The writings were so accurate, not just general but almost personal. I started reading regularly, checking both my sun and rising signs. Rising signs are calculated with the birth time, so I asked my mom and checked according to the time she provided, and it said Aries. It all matched. Then last year, when my birth certificate resurfaced, I found out that I wasn't born at the time my mom stated. So, I recalculated my rising sign, and it had nothing to do with Aries. Hmmm, did my mind play a trick on me while I thought the things I read suited me, or is astrology a cleverly crafted set of general texts? But if we are all made up of atoms, hence energy, and the full moon affects the ebb and flow of oceans, can we really ignore its impact on humans, who are 75% water? Thus, crazy questions in my head.

So, this week, I'll focus on the Barnum Forer effect based on experiments conducted by a scientist who asked the same question as me. You know, critical thinking is the fuel of this newsletter.

But let me clarify at the beginning, my intention is definitely not to criticize or belittle anything. As someone who believes in science, I'm not against understanding oneself and trying to incorporate things that make us feel good into our lives. Understanding the motivation behind human behaviors is one of my biggest interests, and it's related to my job. So, not being able to prove some things with our current knowledge doesn't mean they don't exist because there are many people who believe in astrology, spirituality, and similar topics. And the reasons why they believe, why they want to believe, are valuable to me. As humans, we also need to nourish our spiritual side.

I benefited from Reiki for a long time. Whenever there was uncertainty in my life, I turned to astrology. I use an app called "The Pattern," probably it has excellent algorithms, but I like the questions it sends. It turns inward and makes you ask solid questions to yourself.

Is there a scientific basis for these? No.

Does it make me feel good on a personal level? Occasionally, yes.

Have I seen any harm? No.

That's my perspective. I just want to read, research, and be informed in a world where big money is involved in these things, serving capitalism. When consuming information, contributing indirectly or directly to something, I want to see where I stand in this picture. In short, I want to become aware.

Participant Bias

There is a concept called participant bias. We don't believe or stay without belief, just like in fortune-telling. We look at our horoscope, and if things resonate, we say, "Oh, it knew!" If it doesn't, we say, "Well, what did we expect, it's not going to solve my problems!" and move on without telling others. Some believe that astrology is also like this. I, for example, got my birth chart done once, and it was a complete fiasco. Many things she told me were the opposite of my life, personality, and relationships. There are people who have had the opposite experience, but is it participant bias or is there some validity to it, I don't know.

There is a study on this conducted in 1990 by John McGrew and Richard McFall. They gave the files of 4 men and 19 women volunteers to 6 professional astrologers. The astrologers were asked to match these files with the astrological birth charts, and even astrologers, with no experience in this matter, were less successful than a control group that randomly matched the files. What caught my attention the most was that the predictions made by the 6 astrologers for the same person did not match each other. But who knows who they called professional astrologers? The sample size is low, and so on; the measurements of this experiment can be debated. But this brings me to the main theme of the Forer Barnum effect. What is this?

Forer-Barnum Effect

In short, it is the tendency of people to perceive general and vague statements as specific and accurate to their own situation.

It is actually a cognitive bias because our minds seek something of ourselves in the content and information we consume, as I mentioned in the critical thinking section if I remember correctly. When it comes to statements about ourselves, if we believe in something, the Barnum Forer effect strengthens even more.

In fact, the psychologist Bertram R. Forer, who gave the name to this effect, was influenced by Phineas Taylor Barnum, a famous showman and businessman of that time, in the 1940s. Because Barnum's show's motto was something like, "I have something that fits everyone." The research starts with that idea.

Forer's Experiment

The experiment goes like this; Forer wants to subject the astrological analyses to a scientific test to see how well they fit people, and he gives his students a personality test. While giving it, he says, "I prepared a personalized test for each of you based on your scores in exams. Rate how well this analysis fits you." In reality, he gives the exact same analysis to each student. There is nothing personalized, he just tells the students that it is. All analyses also consist of 13 items, like this:

1. You have a great need for other people to like and admire you.
2. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself.
3. You have a great deal of unused capacity that you have not turned to your advantage.
4. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them.
5. Your sexual adjustment has presented problems for you.
6. Disciplined and self-controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the inside.
7. At times, you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing.
8. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations.
9. You pride yourself as an independent thinker and do not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof.
10. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others.
11. At times, you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times, you are introverted, wary, reserved.
12. Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic.
13. Security is one of your major goals in life.

The students rate their analyses on a scale from 0 to 5 (5, absolutely fits), and the average score they give to their own analysis is 4.26. After all the papers are collected, they are told that each of them is given the same paper and that these 13 items are taken from an astrology book, just like that.

Even though it seems personalized to the individual or we are told that it is, perhaps we are inclined to believe it because the statements are so general that they somehow fit a phase of our lives. Even if they don't fit, because they are a little true, it is enough for us to evaluate them as a "good enough prediction."

Placebo Effect in Astrology

Moreover, if we go there hoping for something, it's impossible not to believe. Think of it like the placebo effect. Don't underestimate the placebo effect. Studies say it has a 30% share. So, if you believe that a ritual, a study, or astrology will be good for you, it will likely be good with a minimum of 30% probability.

With a simple maths, if zodiac signs could be separated with sharp boundaries, statistically, only about 8% of these statements should apply to the person on average, because these statements are randomly collected "analyses" from each of the 12 zodiac signs.

When I questioned this, I heard that face-to-face sessions are needed because everyone's chart is different. Okay, it may be. But the things she said in my face-to-face session and what Diana's astrologer said for my zodiac sign were the same. Another disappointment. I was so ready to believe in astrology...

Moreover, in academic studies conducted with astrologers face-to-face or designed in the way astrologers wanted, there are statistically completely random findings, and astrologers rely on general judgments.

Why Does the Forer-Barnum Effect Work?

So, knowing all this, why do we still have some interest in it? Why do we ask people about their zodiac signs, or talk about Mercury retrograde?

I personally think we as humans are in need of explaining things, finding the cause and effect relation and of course generalization. This is how our minds work.

According to scientists, two basic factors that the studies revealed to make this effect functional are: First, the ratio of positive statements to negative statements in the presented material (positives should be more than negatives, but not exaggerated). The second is that the subjects must trust the person testing them enough to provide honest and subjective feedback. If these are provided, no matter who you test and what sentences you use, your subjects will say that your analysis fits them.

The secret is that it appears to be specific enough to the individual but makes general "predictions" that can be found in a large percentage of the population.

Research Enhancing the Forer-Barnum Effect

Experiments related to the Forer/Barnum Effect have been tried repeatedly in modern times, and the same results have been reached each time.

For example, in an article published in November 2012, students were subjected to a test called the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory. Afterwards, both real test results and fake test results were given to the students, and they were asked to guess which result was theirs. Normally, if these personality tests and astrology predictions were correct, at least 80% of the majority should choose the correct test. The result is the opposite: 59% of students said that the fake test result given to them matched them, and the real one didn't. Of course, students don't know which one is fake and which one is real.

Subsequent research has revealed some additional factors that make the Forer/Barnum Effect even more effective. We can categorize them under these 3 main groups:

1. Subjects will be convinced that the analysis is prepared specifically for them, so they will be inclined to believe that the statements they read are tailored to them.
2. Subjects will believe that the person conducting the test, looking into fortune, making the analysis, continuing the experiment, is an authority on the subject.
3. There will be more positive analyses in the analysis. Negatives will be proportionally lower.

Does this prevent us from believing? No, of course not. Anyone can believe anything. Just being aware that these things do not have a scientific basis and not relying on them is important. I also taught all my Irish buddies to read fortunes, by the way. Doing things for fun or to occupy oneself is nice, but it's crucial to know the limit of the perception of reality.

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Warmly,

Emine