“Brexit Brief” – ISSUE 88, 11th October 2019

Tunnel vision

I’ve decamped to the Dunchurch Park Hotel in Warwickshire for today’s Veterinary Public Health Association (VPHA) Council meeting, with the VPHA and Association of Government Vets (AGV) Conference to follow tomorrow. I always like to be amongst friends at a time of national crisis.  

Until yesterday afternoon, it looked like the Brexit debacle was heading for a showdown in the courts with Boris Johnson determined to surpass the law and force a no-deal outcome. But then he got together with his Irish counterpart, Leo Varadkar, for a cosy chat at a wedding venue near Liverpool. The joint statement issued afterwards immediately set tongues wagging. The key line said that the Prime Minister and Taoiseach had “agreed that they could see a pathway to a possible deal.” Other than a few bland words from Varadkar, we’ve since heard nothing of substance from either side. But the smile on the Taoiseach’s face as he delivered them suggested that any compromise on Johnson’s misguided Brexit proposals had come from the UK side. 

The deafening silence from Downing Street was mirrored by the DUP, not normally shy about finding a passing microphone to shout into. Regular ‘Brexit Brief’ readers will know that the Irish backstop – or acceptable arrangements to replace it – has been the greatest bone of contention throughout this hideous process (other than Brexit itself, which I remain resolutely opposed to). The “two borders, four years” suggestion – which I sought to explain in this week’s ‘Brexit Made Simple’ – was never going to be acceptable to Brussels, given the cross-border checks that would be required. Neither was the four-year rolling veto handed to the DUP on whether Northern Ireland should follow EU rules on agriculture, food safety and manufactured products. One must therefore assume that the UK has indeed conceded – at least in principle - on both points.

As I write, EU27 ambassadors have given approval for EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier to enter intensive “tunnel” negotiations with the UK. Their aim is to reach agreement before the European Council summit of EU Leaders commences next Thursday. The nature of the “tunnel” dictates that we may hear little more until an agreement of some form is reached – or the process itself breaks down yet again.

Known unknowns

Prior to yesterday, the big Brexit news of the week was that MPs are being recalled for a special session of the UK Parliament on Saturday 19 October. It will be the first weekend sitting of the House of Commons since the 1982 Falklands War. The European Council summit will have concluded and, if a Brexit deal has not been agreed, Boris Johnson will be legally required to apply for an extension of the 31 October deadline. 

In the absence of an accord with Brussels, the expectation is that MPs will have the opportunity to vote on a series of preferred Brexit outcomes. These will range from leaving the EU without a deal to revoking Article 50 altogether. But should a deal be signed-off at the European Council, MPs will instead be asked to give their assent – as will all other EU national legislatures and the European Parliament in subsequent days. Any House of Commons motion to approve would be subject to a concerted attempt by MPs to attach an amendment requiring a UK referendum to be held on the deal including the option to scrap Brexit and remain in the EU.

Meanwhile, Parliament returns on Monday for a new session which, by tradition, begins with the Queen’s Speech. This is delivered by Her Majesty but written by the Government, setting out its legislative plans for the year ahead. However, with a Parliamentary majority of minus 43 and an unrivalled record of never having won a Commons vote in his time as Prime Minister, it is clear that Boris Johnson’s policy platform is going nowhere. With or without a Brexit deal, he is almost certain to lose the Queen’s Speech vote the following week. In normal circumstances, a dissolution of Parliament and a General Election would inevitably follow. But there is nothing inevitable about UK politics any more.

Meanwhile in America…

Donald Trump has nominated a mediator to end the fighting between Turkish forces and America’s former Kurdish allies in north-east Syria. Himself. Earlier in the week, he pulled US troops out of the area, effectively giving the green light for Turkey to begin its long-planned assault. Trump justified his decision to abandon the Kurds by complaining that “they didn’t help us with Normandy.” But it went down particularly badly in his own Republican Party, whose support he now needs more than ever if he is to stay in office.

With impeachment hearings already underway, yesterday two Trump donors were charged with conspiracy to "funnel foreign money to candidates for federal and state office." The money allegedly came from Ukrainian and Russian nationals. Just hours before, Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman were seen having lunch with Rudi Giuliani, the President’s personal lawyer, at Washington’s Trump International Hotel. Yesterday Trump claimed he didn’t know either man, who also happen to be fellow Giuliani clients. But a photo of the US President with the arrested men suggests otherwise. “Now it's possible I have a picture with them because I have a picture with everybody, I have a picture with everybody here," he told reporters. “I don't know them. I don't know about them. I don't know what they do but I don't know.” Parnas and Fruman are expected to give evidence to the Congress in the coming days. Perhaps we’ll find out then who and what they know.

Have an excellent weekend!

Jason

Dr Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director, Eville & Jones

You can follow me on Twitter @JasonAldiss